Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 14–15 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.3% 22.3–24.3% 22.1–24.6% 21.8–24.9% 21.4–25.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 36 35–38 34–38 33–38 33–39
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 14–17 14–17 14–18 14–18
Democraten 66 19 14 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–16
GroenLinks 14 13 11–13 11–13 11–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 12 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 10–11 10–11 10–12 10–13
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
50Plus 4 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
DENK 3 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 3% 99.8% Last Result
34 7% 97%  
35 4% 90%  
36 72% 86% Median
37 4% 14%  
38 10% 10%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 1.1% 100%  
17 12% 98.9%  
18 33% 87%  
19 51% 55% Median
20 1.2% 3% Last Result
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 58% 98% Median
16 11% 40%  
17 3% 28%  
18 25% 25%  
19 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 49% 100%  
15 26% 51% Median
16 8% 26%  
17 14% 17%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 24% 98%  
13 12% 74%  
14 59% 62% Median
15 1.0% 3%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 10% 99.5%  
12 7% 89%  
13 80% 82% Median
14 3% 3% Last Result
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 36% 99.8%  
11 10% 64%  
12 51% 54% Median
13 3% 3%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 36% 99.6%  
11 59% 63% Median
12 4% 5%  
13 1.0% 1.0%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100% Last Result
6 66% 99.3% Median
7 31% 34%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 6% 99.7%  
5 80% 94% Last Result, Median
6 11% 14%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 52% 100% Median
3 43% 48% Last Result
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 92% 92% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 85% 85% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 88% 88% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 85 100% 85–90 85–90 84–90 84–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 84 100% 84–86 82–86 81–86 80–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 83 100% 83–85 82–85 82–85 80–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 80–82 79–82 79–83 77–85
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 74 15% 73–77 73–78 73–78 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 71 0.2% 71–73 69–73 68–73 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 70 0% 69–72 68–72 68–72 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 65 0% 65–70 65–70 65–70 65–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 64 0% 63–67 63–69 62–69 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 65 0% 65–68 65–68 64–68 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 64 0% 64–67 64–67 64–67 62–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 65 0% 65–67 62–67 62–67 61–68
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 62–66 62–67 61–67 61–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 63 0% 63–65 61–65 61–65 59–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 62 0% 62–64 61–64 60–64 59–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 50 0% 50–54 50–55 49–55 49–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 51 0% 51–54 50–54 49–54 49–55
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 43 0% 43–47 43–48 43–48 41–50
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 38 0% 35–40 35–40 35–41 35–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 31 0% 29–33 29–34 29–34 28–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 29 0% 29–30 28–31 27–32 26–32

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 4% 100%  
85 47% 96% Last Result
86 3% 49% Median
87 3% 46%  
88 30% 44%  
89 3% 14%  
90 9% 11%  
91 1.3% 2%  
92 0.8% 0.9%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.3% 100%  
80 0.5% 99.7%  
81 3% 99.2%  
82 2% 96%  
83 3% 93%  
84 60% 91% Median
85 3% 31%  
86 26% 28%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.7% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 1.0% 100%  
81 0.2% 98.9%  
82 4% 98.8%  
83 63% 95% Median
84 4% 32%  
85 26% 28%  
86 0.6% 2%  
87 0.9% 1.3%  
88 0.4% 0.5%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 1.0% 100%  
78 0.7% 99.0%  
79 6% 98%  
80 12% 93%  
81 53% 81% Median
82 26% 28%  
83 1.2% 3%  
84 0.7% 1.4%  
85 0.3% 0.7%  
86 0.4% 0.5%  
87 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 2% 99.8%  
73 9% 98%  
74 48% 89%  
75 26% 41% Median
76 4% 15% Majority
77 5% 11%  
78 4% 6%  
79 0.7% 1.4%  
80 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 3% 99.9%  
69 3% 97%  
70 2% 94%  
71 48% 92% Median
72 7% 44%  
73 35% 37%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 1.0% 100%  
67 0.5% 98.9%  
68 6% 98%  
69 3% 93%  
70 59% 89% Median
71 8% 31%  
72 22% 23% Last Result
73 0.5% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.5%  
75 0.4% 0.4%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 50% 99.5%  
66 5% 50% Median
67 2% 45%  
68 8% 44%  
69 25% 36%  
70 10% 11%  
71 0.1% 0.9%  
72 0.6% 0.9%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 3% 99.8%  
63 23% 97%  
64 51% 73%  
65 8% 22% Median
66 4% 14%  
67 0.3% 10%  
68 0.9% 10%  
69 8% 9%  
70 0.6% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 1.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 98.7%  
64 3% 98%  
65 52% 95% Median
66 3% 43%  
67 16% 40%  
68 23% 24%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.1% 0.4%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 1.4% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 98%  
64 54% 98% Median
65 3% 43%  
66 13% 40%  
67 26% 28%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 1.3% 99.8%  
62 4% 98%  
63 2% 94%  
64 1.2% 93%  
65 50% 91% Median
66 31% 41%  
67 9% 10%  
68 0.9% 1.1%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 2% 99.8%  
62 48% 97%  
63 9% 50% Median
64 7% 41%  
65 23% 34%  
66 5% 11% Last Result
67 4% 5%  
68 0.6% 1.3%  
69 0.1% 0.7%  
70 0.6% 0.6%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100% Last Result
59 1.2% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 98.7%  
61 5% 98%  
62 3% 93%  
63 48% 90% Median
64 18% 42%  
65 23% 24%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.8% 1.1%  
68 0% 0.3%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 1.4% 99.9%  
60 3% 98%  
61 4% 95%  
62 49% 91% Median
63 14% 42%  
64 26% 28%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 1.0% 1.3%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 3% 100%  
50 50% 97%  
51 27% 46% Median
52 6% 19%  
53 2% 13%  
54 2% 11%  
55 9% 9%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.7%  
49 5% 99.6%  
50 4% 95%  
51 51% 91% Median
52 2% 41% Last Result
53 16% 39%  
54 22% 23%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0% 0.3%  
57 0.3% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.9% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.0%  
43 50% 99.0%  
44 5% 49% Median
45 25% 44%  
46 9% 19%  
47 4% 10% Last Result
48 5% 6%  
49 0.8% 1.4%  
50 0.6% 0.6%  
51 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 48% 100%  
36 0.5% 52% Median
37 0.5% 51%  
38 18% 51%  
39 1.3% 33%  
40 27% 31%  
41 3% 5%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.6% 100% Last Result
29 47% 99.4%  
30 1.3% 52% Median
31 5% 51%  
32 16% 46%  
33 22% 30%  
34 6% 7%  
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0.8% 0.8%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 2% 98%  
28 0.9% 96%  
29 63% 95% Median
30 24% 31%  
31 4% 8%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations