Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 23 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.3% 20.4–22.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.9–22.8% 19.4–23.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 14.0% 13.2–14.8% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.3% 12.4–15.7%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 31–34 31–35 31–35 30–35
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 22 20–23 19–23 19–23 19–25
Partij van de Arbeid 9 16 14–18 13–18 13–18 13–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–17
Democraten 66 19 12 12–13 11–14 11–14 11–14
GroenLinks 14 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–15
Socialistische Partij 14 12 10–12 10–14 10–15 10–15
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
50Plus 4 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 9% 99.3%  
32 54% 90% Median
33 23% 36% Last Result
34 4% 13%  
35 9% 9%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 7% 100%  
20 16% 93% Last Result
21 3% 78%  
22 65% 75% Median
23 9% 10%  
24 0.1% 0.8%  
25 0.7% 0.7%  
26 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 9% 100%  
14 8% 91%  
15 5% 83%  
16 52% 78% Median
17 10% 26%  
18 16% 16%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.8%  
14 13% 99.2%  
15 14% 86%  
16 59% 72% Median
17 13% 13%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 6% 99.6%  
12 81% 94% Median
13 5% 12%  
14 7% 7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.4% 100%  
11 9% 98.6%  
12 67% 90% Median
13 21% 23%  
14 0.2% 2% Last Result
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 14% 100%  
11 23% 86%  
12 54% 63% Median
13 2% 9%  
14 2% 7% Last Result
15 5% 5%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 100%  
10 16% 99.3%  
11 69% 83% Median
12 13% 14%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 7% 99.7% Last Result
6 82% 93% Median
7 8% 11%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 19% 99.9% Last Result
6 79% 81% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 57% 100% Median
3 41% 43% Last Result
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 25% 100%  
2 75% 75% Median
3 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 32% 34%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 88% 88% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 83 100% 81–85 81–86 79–86 79–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 82 100% 80–84 80–85 80–85 78–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 79–83 78–83 76–83 76–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 78 98.8% 78–80 77–80 77–82 75–82
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 74 8% 71–75 71–76 71–77 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 70 0% 68–71 67–72 66–72 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 66 0% 66–67 65–67 65–68 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 64 0% 62–67 62–67 61–67 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 61 0% 61–64 60–65 60–65 59–66
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 59–65 59–65 59–65 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 61 0% 60–64 59–64 59–64 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 60 0% 58–63 58–64 58–64 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 58–61 58–62 57–62 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 60 0% 60–61 60–61 58–61 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 59 0% 57–60 56–61 56–61 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 46–51 46–52 46–52 45–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 48 0% 46–49 46–49 46–49 45–51
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 42–46 41–46 41–47 40–47
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 38 0% 35–40 35–40 35–40 33–40
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 32 0% 29–34 29–34 29–35 28–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 28 0% 26–29 26–29 26–29 25–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.1% 100%  
79 3% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 97%  
81 11% 97%  
82 14% 86%  
83 42% 72% Median
84 3% 30%  
85 18% 27%  
86 9% 10%  
87 0.7% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 1.0% 99.9%  
79 0.7% 98.9%  
80 10% 98%  
81 8% 88%  
82 43% 80% Median
83 13% 36%  
84 15% 23%  
85 7% 7% Last Result
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 3% 100% Majority
77 0.4% 97%  
78 7% 97%  
79 18% 90%  
80 1.0% 72%  
81 42% 71% Median
82 11% 28%  
83 16% 17%  
84 0.7% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.9% 99.7%  
76 1.0% 98.8% Majority
77 4% 98%  
78 56% 94% Median
79 17% 37%  
80 17% 20%  
81 0.5% 3%  
82 3% 3%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 2% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 98%  
71 9% 98%  
72 10% 89%  
73 12% 79%  
74 42% 68% Median
75 18% 26%  
76 5% 8% Majority
77 3% 3%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 3% 99.4%  
67 3% 97%  
68 16% 94%  
69 8% 78%  
70 42% 70% Median
71 18% 28%  
72 9% 10% Last Result
73 0.8% 0.8%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 1.0% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 98.7%  
65 8% 98%  
66 46% 90% Median
67 40% 44%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.6% 1.1%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 3% 99.5% Last Result
62 11% 97%  
63 10% 85%  
64 51% 75% Median
65 3% 24%  
66 9% 21%  
67 12% 12%  
68 0.4% 0.4%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 8% 99.4%  
61 47% 92% Last Result, Median
62 11% 45%  
63 16% 34%  
64 8% 18%  
65 8% 9%  
66 0.4% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.9% 99.6%  
59 9% 98.7%  
60 1.1% 90%  
61 18% 88%  
62 49% 70% Median
63 3% 21%  
64 5% 19%  
65 14% 14%  
66 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 9% 99.6%  
60 1.5% 91%  
61 46% 90% Median
62 18% 44%  
63 15% 26%  
64 10% 11%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.6%  
58 18% 99.5%  
59 1.1% 82%  
60 41% 81% Median
61 15% 39% Last Result
62 3% 24%  
63 12% 21%  
64 9% 9%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.8%  
57 3% 99.3%  
58 12% 96% Last Result
59 41% 85% Median
60 28% 44%  
61 7% 16%  
62 8% 9%  
63 0.6% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 1.0% 99.7%  
58 2% 98.8%  
59 1.1% 96%  
60 57% 95% Median
61 37% 38%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.9%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0.3% 100%  
56 5% 99.7%  
57 5% 95%  
58 5% 90%  
59 49% 85% Median
60 26% 36%  
61 9% 9%  
62 0.5% 0.9%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.5% 100%  
46 18% 99.5%  
47 4% 82%  
48 42% 78% Median
49 14% 36%  
50 6% 22%  
51 7% 16%  
52 9% 9%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.8% 99.5%  
46 9% 98.8%  
47 1.3% 90%  
48 50% 89% Median
49 37% 39%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.8% 1.0%  
52 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 1.1% 99.9%  
41 9% 98.8%  
42 5% 90%  
43 23% 85%  
44 42% 63% Median
45 4% 20%  
46 12% 16%  
47 4% 5% Last Result
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.6% 100% Last Result
34 0.4% 99.3%  
35 10% 99.0%  
36 2% 89%  
37 19% 86%  
38 48% 67% Median
39 8% 19%  
40 12% 12%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.0% 99.9% Last Result
29 11% 98.9%  
30 4% 88%  
31 24% 85%  
32 44% 61% Median
33 5% 17%  
34 7% 12%  
35 5% 5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 10% 99.0%  
27 10% 89%  
28 63% 79% Median
29 15% 16%  
30 0.5% 0.7%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations