Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 21–27 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.7% 22.1–25.5% 21.6–26.0% 21.2–26.4% 20.5–27.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.1–13.4% 9.8–13.7% 9.3–14.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.8% 8.5–13.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.5% 8.5–10.8% 8.2–11.2% 7.9–11.5% 7.4–12.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.9% 7.8–10.1% 7.6–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 7.7–9.9% 7.4–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.7–11.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.2% 5.4–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.8% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.3% 3.4–6.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.9% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%
50Plus 3.1% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.4%
DENK 2.1% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 36 33–39 33–39 33–41 32–42
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 16–20 15–20 15–21 14–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 19 15–20 14–20 14–20 13–20
Democraten 66 19 14 14–17 13–17 13–17 11–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
GroenLinks 14 13 11–15 11–15 10–16 9–17
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 7–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 8 8–10 8–11 8–12 6–13
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–9 5–9 5–10 5–11
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–4
50Plus 4 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
DENK 3 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.7%  
33 20% 99.1% Last Result
34 7% 79%  
35 8% 72%  
36 44% 64% Median
37 7% 20%  
38 2% 13%  
39 8% 11%  
40 1.2% 4%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.9% 1.0%  
43 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 5% 98%  
16 3% 93%  
17 12% 89%  
18 39% 77% Median
19 27% 38%  
20 6% 11% Last Result
21 3% 5%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 6% 99.5%  
15 19% 93%  
16 12% 75%  
17 4% 63%  
18 2% 58%  
19 8% 56% Last Result, Median
20 48% 48%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.9%  
12 0.5% 99.2%  
13 7% 98.7%  
14 62% 92% Median
15 8% 30%  
16 5% 21%  
17 16% 17%  
18 0.3% 0.6%  
19 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.5%  
12 10% 98%  
13 34% 88%  
14 47% 54% Median
15 4% 6%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 2% 99.5%  
11 12% 97%  
12 5% 85%  
13 65% 80% Median
14 2% 15% Last Result
15 9% 13%  
16 2% 4%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.2%  
9 8% 98%  
10 41% 90% Median
11 11% 49%  
12 36% 38%  
13 0.8% 2%  
14 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 1.3% 99.3%  
8 50% 98% Median
9 15% 48%  
10 26% 33%  
11 2% 7%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.2% 0.5%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 44% 99.9% Last Result
6 29% 56% Median
7 6% 27%  
8 10% 21%  
9 6% 11%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 12% 99.7%  
5 56% 88% Last Result, Median
6 22% 32%  
7 9% 10%  
8 0.9% 1.1%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 19% 99.1%  
3 58% 80% Last Result, Median
4 21% 22%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 68% 98% Median
2 28% 30%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Median
1 34% 35%  
2 1.5% 2%  
3 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 88 100% 85–91 83–92 83–93 81–95
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 89 100% 86–89 85–90 84–92 82–94
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 85 99.5% 80–86 79–87 78–88 75–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 82 98% 78–82 77–84 76–85 73–86
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 76 66% 72–78 71–80 71–80 68–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 75 19% 72–76 72–78 71–79 69–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 72 2% 68–74 67–75 66–75 64–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 68 0% 66–70 65–71 64–72 62–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 68 0% 64–68 63–70 63–70 61–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 63–70 62–70 62–70 61–72
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 61–67 61–68 61–70 58–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 67 0% 62–67 62–68 61–69 58–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 64 0% 61–65 61–67 60–68 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 64 0% 60–67 60–67 60–68 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 63 0% 59–64 59–65 59–66 56–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 53 0% 51–56 49–56 49–57 48–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 50 0% 46–52 46–53 46–54 45–55
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 47 0% 43–48 42–48 41–48 39–49
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 39 0% 34–39 34–40 34–41 32–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 34 0% 29–34 29–34 28–34 27–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 32 0% 28–34 27–34 27–34 26–34

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0.7% 99.7%  
82 0.6% 99.0%  
83 4% 98%  
84 1.5% 94%  
85 7% 93%  
86 29% 86%  
87 7% 58%  
88 34% 51% Median
89 4% 17%  
90 2% 13% Last Result
91 4% 11%  
92 2% 6%  
93 4% 5%  
94 0% 0.9%  
95 0.9% 0.9%  
96 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.4% 100%  
82 0.5% 99.6%  
83 0.3% 99.1%  
84 1.4% 98.8%  
85 6% 97% Last Result
86 17% 91%  
87 19% 74%  
88 5% 55%  
89 41% 50% Median
90 5% 9%  
91 2% 5%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.1% 1.2%  
94 1.0% 1.0%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.4% 100%  
74 0% 99.6%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 0.8% 99.5% Majority
77 0.2% 98.7% Last Result
78 1.0% 98%  
79 6% 97%  
80 4% 91%  
81 12% 87%  
82 10% 75%  
83 4% 65%  
84 1.4% 61% Median
85 38% 59%  
86 16% 22%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 3%  
89 1.0% 1.0%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 0% 99.6%  
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 0.4% 99.0% Last Result
75 1.0% 98.6%  
76 2% 98% Majority
77 5% 95%  
78 14% 90%  
79 8% 76%  
80 6% 68%  
81 3% 62% Median
82 52% 59%  
83 2% 7%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.8% 1.0%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.7% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.3%  
70 2% 99.1%  
71 7% 98%  
72 2% 91%  
73 7% 89%  
74 11% 82%  
75 5% 71%  
76 23% 66% Median, Majority
77 3% 43%  
78 34% 40%  
79 1.2% 6%  
80 5% 5% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.5%  
83 0.4% 0.4%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.7%  
70 0.8% 99.1%  
71 2% 98%  
72 9% 97%  
73 28% 88%  
74 6% 60%  
75 35% 54% Median
76 9% 19% Last Result, Majority
77 1.2% 10%  
78 6% 9%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.1% 1.1%  
81 0.9% 0.9%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.4% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.7% 99.2%  
66 1.4% 98.5%  
67 2% 97%  
68 5% 95%  
69 11% 90%  
70 14% 79%  
71 6% 65%  
72 18% 59% Last Result
73 2% 41% Median
74 33% 39%  
75 3% 6%  
76 2% 2% Majority
77 0% 0.4%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.8% 99.7%  
63 1.5% 99.0%  
64 1.0% 98%  
65 3% 97%  
66 11% 94%  
67 22% 83%  
68 20% 61%  
69 3% 41% Median
70 33% 38%  
71 2% 5% Last Result
72 3% 3%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.8%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
62 0.8% 99.2%  
63 5% 98%  
64 16% 93%  
65 1.4% 77%  
66 13% 76%  
67 6% 63% Median
68 49% 57%  
69 1.2% 8%  
70 5% 7%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.1% 1.2%  
73 1.1% 1.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.5% Last Result
62 5% 98.9%  
63 5% 94%  
64 1.1% 89%  
65 15% 88%  
66 29% 73%  
67 1.1% 44%  
68 4% 43%  
69 4% 39% Median
70 33% 35%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.9% 1.0%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 1.0% 99.3%  
60 0.5% 98%  
61 8% 98%  
62 2% 90%  
63 2% 88%  
64 19% 86%  
65 6% 67%  
66 51% 61% Last Result, Median
67 2% 10%  
68 3% 8%  
69 0.4% 5%  
70 4% 4%  
71 0.5% 0.6%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0% 99.8% Last Result
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.2% 99.4%  
60 0.2% 99.2%  
61 2% 99.0%  
62 19% 97%  
63 3% 78%  
64 5% 75%  
65 6% 71%  
66 8% 64% Median
67 49% 56%  
68 4% 7%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.3% 1.3%  
71 0.2% 1.0%  
72 0.7% 0.8%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
59 0.9% 99.6%  
60 3% 98.7%  
61 19% 96%  
62 2% 77%  
63 6% 76%  
64 27% 70% Median
65 34% 43%  
66 1.1% 8%  
67 4% 7%  
68 1.5% 3%  
69 0.2% 1.2%  
70 0.8% 1.0%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.7% 99.7%  
60 19% 99.0%  
61 5% 80% Last Result
62 3% 76%  
63 4% 72%  
64 40% 68% Median
65 5% 28%  
66 3% 23%  
67 17% 20%  
68 1.1% 3%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100% Last Result
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.8%  
57 0.1% 99.2%  
58 2% 99.2%  
59 17% 98%  
60 5% 81%  
61 1.3% 76%  
62 8% 75%  
63 24% 67% Median
64 35% 43%  
65 5% 7%  
66 0.9% 3%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0% 1.0%  
69 1.0% 1.0%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 0.7% 99.6%  
49 6% 98.9%  
50 1.5% 93%  
51 16% 92%  
52 4% 76% Last Result
53 27% 72%  
54 5% 45%  
55 3% 40% Median
56 35% 37%  
57 0.4% 3%  
58 1.2% 2%  
59 1.0% 1.0%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.8% 99.6%  
46 18% 98.8%  
47 14% 81%  
48 3% 67%  
49 1.4% 64%  
50 46% 62% Median
51 2% 17%  
52 9% 15%  
53 3% 6%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.9% 1.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 1.0% 99.4%  
41 2% 98%  
42 6% 96%  
43 5% 91%  
44 9% 85%  
45 11% 76%  
46 14% 66%  
47 17% 52% Last Result, Median
48 34% 34%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.7%  
33 1.1% 99.2% Last Result
34 15% 98%  
35 5% 83%  
36 7% 78%  
37 10% 71%  
38 4% 61%  
39 50% 57% Median
40 3% 7%  
41 5% 5%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 3% 99.3%  
29 8% 96%  
30 8% 88%  
31 2% 80%  
32 19% 77%  
33 7% 58% Median
34 50% 51%  
35 0.7% 1.3%  
36 0.3% 0.6%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 1.1% 99.6%  
27 6% 98%  
28 11% 92% Last Result
29 13% 81%  
30 5% 69%  
31 10% 64%  
32 4% 54%  
33 17% 49% Median
34 32% 33%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations