Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 28–29 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.6% 19.7–21.6% 19.4–21.9% 19.2–22.1% 18.7–22.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.3% 14.4–16.1% 14.2–16.4% 14.0–16.6% 13.6–17.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.6–11.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.6–10.0% 8.5–10.2% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.6–10.0% 8.5–10.2% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 30–34 30–35 30–35 29–35
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 24 22–25 21–25 21–25 21–25
Partij van de Arbeid 9 16 13–16 13–17 13–17 13–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 12–17 12–17 12–17 12–17
Democraten 66 19 14 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–16
GroenLinks 14 11 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 11 11–13 11–13 10–13 10–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 9 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 2% 99.9%  
30 13% 98%  
31 28% 85%  
32 9% 57% Median
33 15% 48% Last Result
34 27% 33%  
35 5% 5%  
36 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100% Last Result
21 6% 99.9%  
22 20% 94%  
23 11% 74%  
24 15% 63% Median
25 47% 48%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 12% 100%  
14 8% 88%  
15 2% 80%  
16 72% 78% Median
17 5% 6%  
18 0.9% 0.9%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 45% 100%  
13 7% 55% Median
14 28% 48%  
15 8% 20%  
16 0.4% 12%  
17 12% 12%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100%  
13 12% 99.2%  
14 40% 87% Median
15 42% 47%  
16 6% 6%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.5% 100%  
11 64% 98.5% Median
12 14% 35%  
13 21% 21%  
14 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 4% 100%  
11 56% 96% Median
12 3% 40%  
13 37% 37%  
14 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.6% 100%  
9 58% 99.4% Median
10 12% 41%  
11 28% 28%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 3% 99.8% Last Result
6 69% 97% Median
7 28% 28%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 12% 99.4% Last Result
6 86% 88% Median
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 44% 99.9% Last Result
4 54% 56% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 80% 100% Median
2 15% 20%  
3 4% 4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100%  
1 61% 61% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 83 100% 81–84 80–85 80–86 80–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 83 100% 79–84 79–84 79–85 78–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 79 99.8% 77–80 76–82 76–82 76–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 78 77% 74–81 74–81 74–81 74–82
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 7% 71–75 71–76 71–77 70–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 69 0% 67–71 67–72 66–73 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 67 0% 63–68 63–68 63–69 62–70
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 59–64 59–65 59–66 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 62 0% 59–63 59–64 59–65 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 62 0% 58–65 58–65 58–65 58–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 59 0% 58–62 58–62 58–63 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 57–61 57–62 57–62 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 61 0% 57–62 57–62 56–62 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 55 0% 55–58 54–59 54–59 53–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 54–57 54–59 54–59 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 43–50 43–51 43–51 43–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 46 0% 43–48 43–49 43–49 42–49
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 43 0% 42–45 42–46 42–46 41–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 34–37 34–37 34–37 33–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 26–32 26–32 26–32 26–32
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 29 0% 28–30 28–30 28–31 27–33

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 7% 99.7%  
81 17% 92%  
82 24% 75% Median
83 4% 52%  
84 39% 48%  
85 6% 9%  
86 3% 3%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 2% 99.9%  
79 23% 98%  
80 2% 76%  
81 12% 74% Median
82 9% 62%  
83 29% 53%  
84 19% 24%  
85 5% 5% Last Result
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0.1% 100%  
76 5% 99.8% Majority
77 7% 95%  
78 16% 88% Median
79 24% 72%  
80 39% 48%  
81 1.3% 10%  
82 8% 8%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 22% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 78%  
76 3% 77% Median, Majority
77 5% 75%  
78 26% 70%  
79 12% 43%  
80 12% 31%  
81 18% 19%  
82 0.9% 0.9%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 1.1% 100%  
71 26% 98.8% Median
72 29% 72%  
73 7% 43%  
74 4% 36%  
75 26% 32%  
76 2% 7% Majority
77 5% 5%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.5% 100%  
66 4% 99.4%  
67 6% 95%  
68 23% 89%  
69 18% 66% Median
70 4% 48%  
71 35% 44%  
72 6% 8% Last Result
73 3% 3%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 1.3% 100%  
63 22% 98.7%  
64 1.3% 76%  
65 0.9% 75% Median
66 6% 74%  
67 26% 68%  
68 38% 42%  
69 3% 4%  
70 0.5% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.6% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.4%  
59 22% 99.2%  
60 27% 77% Median
61 8% 50%  
62 20% 42%  
63 3% 22%  
64 14% 19%  
65 0.3% 5%  
66 5% 5% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.5% 100%  
58 1.0% 99.5%  
59 23% 98%  
60 13% 76%  
61 8% 63% Last Result, Median
62 30% 54%  
63 18% 24%  
64 2% 6%  
65 5% 5%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 13% 99.9%  
59 1.2% 87%  
60 5% 86%  
61 25% 81% Last Result
62 8% 55% Median
63 13% 47%  
64 6% 34%  
65 28% 28%  
66 0.6% 0.6%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 1.5% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 98%  
58 27% 98%  
59 25% 71% Median
60 15% 46%  
61 18% 31% Last Result
62 10% 13%  
63 3% 3%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 2% 100%  
56 0.2% 98%  
57 22% 98% Last Result
58 6% 76% Median
59 37% 70%  
60 18% 33%  
61 6% 15%  
62 9% 9%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 3% 99.9%  
57 21% 97%  
58 1.1% 76%  
59 1.2% 75% Median
60 5% 74%  
61 48% 69%  
62 19% 20%  
63 1.0% 1.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.8%  
54 6% 98%  
55 45% 92% Median
56 2% 47%  
57 31% 45%  
58 5% 14% Last Result
59 8% 8%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 2% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 98%  
54 27% 98% Last Result, Median
55 24% 70%  
56 30% 46%  
57 7% 16%  
58 4% 9%  
59 5% 5%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 11% 100%  
44 1.0% 89%  
45 2% 88%  
46 6% 86%  
47 27% 80%  
48 4% 53% Median
49 20% 49%  
50 24% 29%  
51 5% 5%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.7% 100%  
43 23% 99.3%  
44 2% 77%  
45 10% 75% Median
46 26% 65%  
47 28% 39%  
48 4% 11%  
49 7% 7%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.9% 99.8%  
42 28% 98.9%  
43 33% 71% Median
44 14% 38%  
45 17% 24%  
46 7% 7%  
47 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 2% 99.8% Last Result
34 46% 98%  
35 0.9% 52% Median
36 28% 51%  
37 21% 23%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 22% 99.8%  
27 32% 78% Median
28 18% 46%  
29 14% 27%  
30 2% 13%  
31 0.2% 11%  
32 11% 11%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 2% 99.7%  
28 46% 98% Last Result
29 8% 52% Median
30 41% 44%  
31 1.4% 4%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.8% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations