Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 4–5 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.3% 20.3–22.3% 20.1–22.5% 19.8–22.8% 19.4–23.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.9% 15.1–16.8% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.6–10.0% 8.5–10.2% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.7%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.3% 8.6–10.0% 8.5–10.2% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 31–34 31–34 31–35 31–36
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 24 23–26 22–26 22–26 22–27
Democraten 66 19 14 13–15 12–15 12–15 12–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 12–14 12–15 12–16 12–17
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 12 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–15
GroenLinks 14 12 12–13 12–13 11–13 11–14
Socialistische Partij 14 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 9–11 9–11 9–12 8–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.4% 100%  
31 11% 99.6%  
32 32% 89%  
33 25% 57% Last Result, Median
34 28% 31%  
35 2% 3%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.2% 100%  
22 5% 99.8%  
23 41% 95%  
24 19% 54% Median
25 7% 34%  
26 27% 27%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 8% 100%  
13 17% 92%  
14 48% 75% Median
15 25% 27%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 10% 100%  
13 31% 90%  
14 51% 58% Median
15 4% 8%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.8% 0.8%  
18 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.2% 100%  
12 50% 98.8% Median
13 19% 48%  
14 24% 29%  
15 6% 6%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 4% 99.5%  
12 81% 95% Median
13 14% 15%  
14 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 30% 99.8%  
11 48% 70% Median
12 19% 22%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.2% 100%  
9 23% 98.8%  
10 34% 76% Median
11 40% 42%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100% Last Result
6 13% 99.4%  
7 60% 86% Median
8 26% 27%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.8% 100%  
5 29% 99.2% Last Result
6 43% 70% Median
7 24% 27%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 33% 100% Last Result
4 46% 67% Median
5 21% 21%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 28% 100%  
2 66% 72% Median
3 6% 6% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 70% 70% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 84 100% 83–85 82–85 82–86 82–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 80 100% 79–81 79–81 78–83 78–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 85 79 99.9% 77–81 76–81 76–83 76–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 78 91% 76–79 74–80 74–81 74–82
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 69 0% 68–71 68–72 68–73 68–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 69 0% 69–71 69–72 67–73 67–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 65 0% 64–67 62–67 62–69 62–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 59 0% 58–61 57–62 57–63 56–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 58–62 57–63 57–63 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 61 0% 59–62 58–62 58–62 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 58–61 57–61 57–62 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 59 0% 57–61 57–62 57–62 57–64
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 57–60 57–60 57–61 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 57 0% 55–58 54–58 54–58 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 54–57 54–57 53–58 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 47 0% 45–48 45–48 45–49 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 46 0% 44–47 44–48 44–49 43–49
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 47 40 0% 39–42 38–43 38–43 38–44
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 31–34 31–35 31–36 31–36
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 26 0% 25–28 25–29 25–30 25–30
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 26 0% 26–29 26–29 25–29 25–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.3% 100%  
82 5% 99.6%  
83 33% 94% Median
84 41% 62%  
85 17% 20%  
86 2% 3%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.2% 100%  
78 3% 99.8%  
79 23% 97% Median
80 60% 74%  
81 10% 14%  
82 1.4% 4%  
83 1.2% 3%  
84 1.3% 1.3%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 7% 99.9% Majority
77 12% 93%  
78 29% 82%  
79 3% 52% Median
80 16% 49%  
81 29% 33%  
82 1.3% 4%  
83 3% 3%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 7% 99.9%  
75 2% 93%  
76 22% 91% Majority
77 11% 70% Median
78 14% 58%  
79 39% 45%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 32% 99.6%  
69 30% 68% Median
70 14% 38%  
71 16% 24%  
72 5% 8%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 3% 100%  
68 0.4% 97%  
69 51% 97% Median
70 22% 46%  
71 19% 24%  
72 3% 6% Last Result
73 1.4% 3%  
74 1.1% 1.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 6% 99.9%  
63 2% 94%  
64 21% 92%  
65 23% 71% Median
66 3% 48%  
67 40% 44%  
68 0.4% 4%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.1% 1.5%  
71 1.4% 1.4%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 2% 99.9%  
57 6% 98%  
58 2% 91%  
59 41% 89% Median
60 27% 48%  
61 15% 21%  
62 3% 6%  
63 1.1% 3%  
64 0.1% 1.5%  
65 1.4% 1.4%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 7% 99.9%  
58 12% 93%  
59 6% 81%  
60 27% 75%  
61 16% 48% Last Result, Median
62 26% 32%  
63 5% 6%  
64 0.1% 0.9%  
65 0.8% 0.8%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 2% 99.9%  
58 5% 98%  
59 27% 94%  
60 5% 66% Median
61 42% 61% Last Result
62 18% 19%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0% 0.4%  
65 0.4% 0.4%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 5% 99.8% Last Result
58 25% 95%  
59 6% 70% Median
60 27% 64%  
61 33% 37%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 11% 99.8%  
58 15% 89%  
59 37% 74% Median
60 24% 37%  
61 5% 13% Last Result
62 6% 7%  
63 0.5% 2%  
64 1.1% 1.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.9%  
57 34% 99.3%  
58 12% 65% Median
59 30% 53%  
60 18% 23%  
61 4% 5%  
62 1.1% 1.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 1.4% 99.9%  
54 5% 98.5%  
55 27% 94%  
56 15% 67% Median
57 14% 52%  
58 36% 38% Last Result
59 0.1% 2%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 5% 99.9%  
54 25% 95% Last Result
55 5% 70% Median
56 23% 66%  
57 39% 43%  
58 3% 5%  
59 0.4% 2%  
60 1.3% 1.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0.3% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.7%  
45 45% 99.4%  
46 4% 54%  
47 20% 50% Median
48 26% 30%  
49 3% 5%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 2% 100%  
44 11% 98%  
45 30% 87% Median
46 46% 57%  
47 6% 12%  
48 2% 6%  
49 4% 4%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 8% 100%  
39 5% 91%  
40 58% 87% Median
41 4% 28%  
42 19% 25%  
43 4% 5%  
44 0.8% 1.0%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 37% 99.6%  
32 6% 63% Median
33 46% 57% Last Result
34 4% 10%  
35 3% 7%  
36 4% 4%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 18% 99.8%  
26 49% 82% Median
27 16% 33%  
28 10% 17% Last Result
29 3% 7%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 3% 99.7%  
26 55% 96% Median
27 20% 41%  
28 5% 22%  
29 15% 17%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations