Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 3–7 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 26.0% 24.8–27.3% 24.4–27.6% 24.2–28.0% 23.6–28.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.2–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.1% 9.3–11.0% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.5% 8.5–11.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.7% 8.0–9.6% 7.7–9.8% 7.6–10.0% 7.2–10.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.6% 7.9–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.5–9.9% 7.1–10.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.4% 7.6–9.2% 7.4–9.4% 7.3–9.7% 6.9–10.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.7% 6.1–7.5% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.6–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.6% 4.0–5.2% 3.9–5.4% 3.7–5.6% 3.5–5.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.2% 2.8–3.8% 2.6–3.9% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.2% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.2%
50Plus 3.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 39 38–41 38–42 37–42 36–43
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 18–22 17–22 16–22 16–22
GroenLinks 14 15 15–16 15–17 14–18 13–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 12–15 11–16 11–16 11–17
Democraten 66 19 13 12–14 12–15 11–15 11–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 12–14 11–14 10–15 10–15
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 8–13
Socialistische Partij 14 9 9–10 9–10 8–11 8–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–6 4–6 3–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–5 2–5
50Plus 4 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
DENK 3 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 1.2% 99.9%  
37 1.3% 98.7%  
38 44% 97%  
39 24% 54% Median
40 6% 30%  
41 17% 23%  
42 4% 6%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 3% 100%  
17 4% 97%  
18 30% 93%  
19 24% 62% Median
20 8% 38% Last Result
21 4% 30%  
22 26% 26%  
23 0% 0.2%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.3% 100%  
14 3% 98.7% Last Result
15 50% 96% Median
16 37% 46%  
17 7% 9%  
18 0.5% 3%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 6% 99.8%  
12 36% 94%  
13 32% 58% Median
14 7% 26%  
15 14% 19%  
16 3% 5%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 27% 97%  
13 31% 70% Median
14 31% 38%  
15 6% 7%  
16 0.1% 0.6%  
17 0.4% 0.5%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 3% 100%  
11 2% 97%  
12 32% 95%  
13 27% 63% Median
14 32% 36%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 6% 100%  
9 16% 94%  
10 51% 78% Median
11 25% 26%  
12 0.6% 1.2%  
13 0.3% 0.6%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 53% 97% Median
10 39% 43%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.3% 0.5%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 10% 100% Last Result
6 18% 90%  
7 35% 73% Median
8 37% 37%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 30% 97%  
5 21% 67% Last Result, Median
6 46% 46%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 80% 92% Last Result, Median
4 9% 12%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 59% 100% Median
2 35% 41%  
3 5% 6%  
4 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100%  
1 59% 59% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 88 100% 86–90 85–93 84–93 83–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 86 100% 83–87 82–89 82–90 81–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 85 100% 82–87 82–87 82–88 81–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 82 100% 79–83 79–85 79–85 78–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 73 5% 70–74 70–76 69–77 68–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 72 2% 69–73 69–74 68–75 68–77
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 0.3% 69–74 69–74 68–74 67–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 66 0% 65–69 65–70 65–72 64–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 65 0% 64–67 63–68 63–71 63–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 65 0% 63–67 63–70 61–71 61–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 63 0% 62–66 62–67 62–70 60–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 65 0% 63–67 63–68 62–70 62–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 61 0% 61–64 60–65 60–69 59–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 63–66 63–67 63–68 62–70
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 60–64 60–64 58–64 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 51 0% 51–54 50–56 49–58 49–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 52 0% 50–53 50–55 50–56 48–57
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 39 0% 37–43 36–43 36–43 35–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 30–35 30–35 30–36 28–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 24–29 24–29 24–30 22–30
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 24–29 23–29 23–29 23–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 1.5% 100%  
84 2% 98.5%  
85 3% 97%  
86 20% 94%  
87 13% 74% Median
88 34% 61%  
89 15% 28%  
90 6% 13% Last Result
91 0.9% 7%  
92 0.4% 6%  
93 5% 6%  
94 0.4% 0.5%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 2% 100%  
82 5% 98%  
83 28% 93%  
84 6% 65%  
85 4% 59% Last Result, Median
86 17% 55%  
87 31% 38%  
88 2% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 3% 3%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.4% 100%  
81 0.7% 99.6%  
82 22% 98.9%  
83 0.8% 77%  
84 17% 76% Median
85 17% 59%  
86 29% 42%  
87 8% 12%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.6% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.4% 100%  
78 0.8% 99.6%  
79 20% 98.8%  
80 5% 79%  
81 20% 75% Median
82 16% 54%  
83 29% 39%  
84 4% 10%  
85 5% 6%  
86 0.8% 1.0%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 2% 100%  
69 2% 98%  
70 23% 96%  
71 10% 73%  
72 8% 63% Median
73 29% 56%  
74 20% 26%  
75 2% 7%  
76 1.4% 5% Last Result, Majority
77 3% 4%  
78 0.6% 0.7%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 3% 99.8%  
69 18% 96%  
70 3% 78%  
71 18% 75% Median
72 18% 57% Last Result
73 30% 39%  
74 6% 9%  
75 0.6% 3%  
76 0.6% 2% Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 2% 99.7%  
68 2% 98%  
69 23% 96%  
70 26% 73% Median
71 7% 47%  
72 4% 40%  
73 17% 37%  
74 18% 20%  
75 1.3% 2%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.3% 100%  
63 0% 99.6%  
64 2% 99.6%  
65 26% 98%  
66 34% 72% Median
67 7% 38%  
68 16% 31%  
69 5% 15%  
70 5% 9%  
71 0.9% 4%  
72 3% 3%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.4% 100%  
61 0% 99.6%  
62 0.1% 99.6%  
63 6% 99.5%  
64 43% 94%  
65 19% 51% Median
66 5% 31%  
67 18% 27%  
68 4% 9%  
69 0.8% 5%  
70 0.7% 4%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 3% 100% Last Result
62 2% 97%  
63 10% 95%  
64 26% 85%  
65 33% 59% Median
66 0.8% 26%  
67 16% 25%  
68 2% 8%  
69 2% 7%  
70 0.7% 5%  
71 4% 4%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.3% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.6%  
61 0.1% 99.5%  
62 30% 99.3%  
63 35% 69% Median
64 5% 34%  
65 15% 29%  
66 8% 15%  
67 3% 7%  
68 0.4% 4%  
69 0.5% 3%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 4% 100%  
63 21% 95%  
64 4% 74%  
65 23% 70% Median
66 22% 47%  
67 15% 24%  
68 5% 9%  
69 0.7% 4%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.4% 100%  
58 0% 99.6%  
59 0.3% 99.6%  
60 7% 99.3%  
61 45% 92%  
62 16% 47% Median
63 6% 31%  
64 15% 24%  
65 5% 9%  
66 0.2% 4%  
67 0.3% 4%  
68 0.7% 3%  
69 3% 3%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 1.3% 99.8%  
63 9% 98.5%  
64 24% 89%  
65 14% 65% Median
66 42% 51%  
67 4% 9%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.5% 1.2%  
70 0.7% 0.7%  
71 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 2% 99.9%  
58 1.3% 98%  
59 1.5% 97%  
60 35% 95%  
61 14% 60% Median
62 10% 46%  
63 1.2% 36%  
64 34% 35%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 5% 100%  
50 0.8% 95%  
51 46% 94%  
52 6% 48% Last Result, Median
53 28% 42%  
54 5% 14%  
55 3% 9%  
56 0.5% 5%  
57 2% 5%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 2% 100%  
49 0.3% 98%  
50 14% 98%  
51 5% 84%  
52 55% 79% Median
53 15% 24%  
54 1.2% 9%  
55 4% 8%  
56 1.4% 4%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 8% 99.3%  
37 34% 91%  
38 4% 57%  
39 8% 54% Median
40 10% 46%  
41 21% 36%  
42 2% 15%  
43 12% 13%  
44 0.5% 0.5%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 2% 100%  
29 0.2% 98%  
30 10% 98%  
31 5% 89%  
32 35% 83%  
33 8% 48% Last Result, Median
34 2% 40%  
35 35% 38%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.7% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.3%  
24 25% 98%  
25 18% 73%  
26 9% 55% Median
27 20% 46%  
28 11% 27%  
29 13% 15%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 8% 99.9%  
24 15% 92%  
25 29% 77%  
26 7% 48% Median
27 20% 41%  
28 4% 22% Last Result
29 17% 17%  
30 0.1% 0.6%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations