Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 25–27 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 25.6% 24.0–27.4% 23.5–27.9% 23.1–28.4% 22.3–29.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.9% 11.6–14.3% 11.3–14.7% 11.0–15.0% 10.4–15.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.1–12.8% 8.5–13.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.8% 7.8–10.0% 7.5–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.8–11.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.1–10.5% 6.6–11.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.9–9.6% 6.6–10.0% 6.2–10.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.6–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 5.0–8.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.9–5.2% 2.6–5.7%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%
50Plus 3.1% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 38 36–41 36–42 34–43 33–44
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 22 19–23 18–23 18–23 17–24
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–19 15–19 13–19 13–21
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 12–15 11–16 11–16 11–17
Democraten 66 19 12 11–14 11–14 11–15 10–17
GroenLinks 14 12 11–14 10–14 10–14 9–15
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–12 9–12 8–12 7–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
ChristenUnie 5 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 3–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–5
50Plus 4 1 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–4
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 1.0% 100% Last Result
34 3% 99.0%  
35 0.5% 96%  
36 18% 95%  
37 5% 78%  
38 37% 73% Median
39 12% 36%  
40 7% 24%  
41 9% 17%  
42 3% 8%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.8% 0.9%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.6%  
18 5% 98%  
19 20% 93%  
20 16% 73% Last Result
21 5% 57%  
22 42% 52% Median
23 10% 10%  
24 0.4% 0.6%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 2% 97%  
15 10% 95%  
16 30% 85%  
17 4% 54% Median
18 9% 50%  
19 40% 41% Last Result
20 0.4% 1.2%  
21 0.8% 0.8%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 0.2% 99.9%  
11 8% 99.7%  
12 12% 92%  
13 37% 80% Median
14 11% 43%  
15 22% 32%  
16 9% 10%  
17 0.8% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 19% 98%  
12 38% 80% Median
13 28% 41%  
14 9% 13%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.8% 1.3%  
17 0.1% 0.5%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 8% 98%  
11 35% 90%  
12 22% 55% Median
13 18% 32%  
14 12% 14% Last Result
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 3% 99.5%  
9 29% 97%  
10 22% 68% Median
11 35% 46%  
12 9% 11%  
13 0.7% 1.4%  
14 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 16% 98%  
7 20% 82%  
8 52% 62% Median
9 9% 10%  
10 0.9% 1.2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.1% 100%  
5 4% 98.9% Last Result
6 56% 95% Median
7 32% 38%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 5% 99.3%  
5 45% 94% Last Result, Median
6 34% 49%  
7 13% 15%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100%  
2 17% 89%  
3 56% 72% Last Result, Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 56% 100% Median
2 35% 44%  
3 6% 8%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 66% 96% Median
2 29% 30%  
3 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 87 100% 84–90 82–91 80–92 80–95
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 87 100% 82–90 82–90 81–91 79–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 85 100% 83–89 81–91 79–91 79–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 84 99.8% 80–87 80–87 78–88 76–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 78 55% 73–79 72–79 70–79 69–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 74 14% 69–77 69–78 66–79 66–81
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 71 1.4% 67–74 66–75 65–75 65–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 70 0.1% 66–71 64–72 64–74 62–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 69 0.1% 63–72 63–72 61–73 61–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 68 0% 64–70 63–72 63–72 61–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 62–68 61–70 60–71 60–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 63 0% 62–67 61–68 59–70 59–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 66 0% 60–67 60–68 59–69 57–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 64 0% 58–66 58–67 58–68 56–68
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 56–64 56–66 56–66 54–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 56 0% 52–58 50–59 50–60 49–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 51 0% 50–54 48–55 48–57 46–58
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 40–46 37–48 37–48 37–49
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 37 0% 33–39 32–41 32–41 29–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 31 0% 28–33 26–35 26–35 25–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 27–32 26–32 26–32 25–34

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.3% 100%  
80 3% 99.7%  
81 0.6% 97%  
82 1.2% 96%  
83 2% 95%  
84 17% 93%  
85 3% 76% Last Result, Median
86 3% 73%  
87 34% 70%  
88 3% 36%  
89 5% 33%  
90 23% 28%  
91 1.2% 5%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.1% 1.4%  
95 1.3% 1.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0.8% 99.8%  
80 0.1% 99.0%  
81 2% 98.9%  
82 12% 97%  
83 7% 85%  
84 9% 78%  
85 11% 69%  
86 3% 58%  
87 9% 55%  
88 2% 46% Median
89 8% 44%  
90 33% 36%  
91 3% 3%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.3% 100%  
79 3% 99.7%  
80 0.2% 97%  
81 2% 96%  
82 2% 95%  
83 12% 93%  
84 5% 82% Median
85 34% 77%  
86 16% 43%  
87 14% 27%  
88 2% 12%  
89 3% 10%  
90 0.9% 8% Last Result
91 6% 7%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.7% 99.8% Majority
77 1.0% 99.1%  
78 2% 98%  
79 1.0% 96%  
80 11% 95%  
81 15% 84%  
82 10% 69%  
83 3% 59%  
84 8% 55%  
85 2% 47% Median
86 3% 45%  
87 39% 42%  
88 3% 3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.9% 99.9%  
70 3% 99.0%  
71 0.1% 96%  
72 2% 96% Last Result
73 6% 94%  
74 30% 88%  
75 4% 59%  
76 0.9% 55% Majority
77 2% 54% Median
78 9% 52%  
79 41% 43%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0% 0.4%  
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 3% 100%  
67 0.1% 97%  
68 0.1% 97%  
69 11% 96%  
70 0.8% 86%  
71 6% 85%  
72 0.8% 79% Median
73 9% 78%  
74 41% 69%  
75 14% 28%  
76 2% 14% Last Result, Majority
77 4% 12%  
78 5% 7%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 0.1% 2%  
81 1.4% 1.5%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.4% 100%  
65 3% 99.6%  
66 7% 97%  
67 3% 90%  
68 3% 87%  
69 1.5% 84% Median
70 5% 83%  
71 37% 77%  
72 26% 40%  
73 2% 14%  
74 3% 12%  
75 8% 9%  
76 0.5% 1.4% Majority
77 0.8% 0.9%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 1.2% 100%  
63 0.3% 98.7%  
64 5% 98%  
65 2% 93%  
66 3% 91%  
67 17% 88%  
68 2% 71% Median
69 2% 69%  
70 48% 67%  
71 12% 19%  
72 2% 7%  
73 1.1% 5%  
74 4% 4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 3% 100%  
62 1.1% 97%  
63 8% 96%  
64 2% 87%  
65 3% 85%  
66 2% 83%  
67 9% 80% Median
68 21% 71%  
69 33% 51%  
70 6% 18%  
71 2% 12% Last Result
72 8% 10%  
73 1.4% 3%  
74 0.2% 1.2%  
75 0.8% 0.9%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.9% 99.9% Last Result
62 0.7% 99.0%  
63 6% 98%  
64 9% 93%  
65 13% 84%  
66 2% 71%  
67 11% 68% Median
68 11% 57%  
69 34% 45%  
70 5% 11%  
71 1.4% 7%  
72 5% 5%  
73 0.5% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 4% 99.9%  
61 2% 96%  
62 12% 94%  
63 13% 82%  
64 3% 70%  
65 2% 67%  
66 15% 65% Median
67 7% 50%  
68 34% 43%  
69 4% 9%  
70 2% 5%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 4% 100%  
60 0.7% 96%  
61 1.1% 95% Last Result
62 9% 94%  
63 39% 85% Median
64 3% 45%  
65 12% 42%  
66 8% 29%  
67 11% 21%  
68 6% 10%  
69 1.0% 4%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.1% 0.8%  
72 0.1% 0.7%  
73 0.6% 0.6%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.9% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.1% Last Result
59 2% 99.0%  
60 10% 97%  
61 4% 88%  
62 2% 83%  
63 3% 81%  
64 19% 78% Median
65 8% 59%  
66 40% 51%  
67 2% 12%  
68 5% 10%  
69 4% 5%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0.9% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.0%  
58 14% 98.5%  
59 3% 85%  
60 2% 82%  
61 2% 80%  
62 12% 78%  
63 10% 67% Median
64 13% 56%  
65 32% 43%  
66 4% 10%  
67 3% 6%  
68 3% 3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.6% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.4%  
56 9% 99.0%  
57 2% 90%  
58 5% 88%  
59 7% 83% Median
60 36% 76%  
61 1.0% 40%  
62 10% 39%  
63 17% 29%  
64 3% 12%  
65 0.2% 9%  
66 8% 9% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 1.2% 100%  
50 4% 98.7%  
51 1.1% 94%  
52 11% 93% Last Result
53 3% 83%  
54 3% 80%  
55 21% 77% Median
56 8% 56%  
57 33% 48%  
58 8% 15%  
59 3% 7%  
60 3% 4%  
61 0.4% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 1.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 98.9%  
48 4% 98%  
49 0.7% 94%  
50 5% 93%  
51 42% 88% Median
52 19% 46%  
53 3% 27%  
54 14% 24%  
55 6% 10%  
56 1.1% 4%  
57 0.4% 3%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 6% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 94%  
39 2% 93%  
40 2% 91%  
41 11% 89%  
42 12% 78% Median
43 2% 66%  
44 50% 64%  
45 2% 15%  
46 4% 12%  
47 0.2% 8% Last Result
48 8% 8%  
49 0.6% 0.7%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.6% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.4%  
31 0.8% 99.3%  
32 8% 98.5%  
33 6% 91% Last Result
34 5% 84%  
35 7% 80% Median
36 8% 73%  
37 41% 65%  
38 13% 23%  
39 1.3% 10%  
40 0.5% 9%  
41 8% 9%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 6% 99.1%  
27 3% 93%  
28 8% 90% Last Result
29 5% 82%  
30 11% 78% Median
31 20% 67%  
32 35% 46%  
33 2% 11%  
34 0.4% 8%  
35 8% 8%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 7% 98.8%  
27 15% 92%  
28 6% 77%  
29 17% 70% Median
30 3% 54%  
31 34% 51%  
32 15% 17%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.8% 1.1%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations