Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 25–29 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 26.7% 25.1–28.4% 24.6–28.9% 24.2–29.3% 23.5–30.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.9% 10.8–13.2% 10.4–13.6% 10.2–13.9% 9.6–14.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.8% 8.7–11.0% 8.5–11.3% 8.2–11.6% 7.7–12.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.2% 8.2–10.3% 7.9–10.7% 7.7–11.0% 7.2–11.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.5% 7.5–9.6% 7.3–10.0% 7.0–10.2% 6.6–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.4% 6.5–8.5% 6.2–8.8% 6.0–9.0% 5.6–9.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 6.6% 5.8–7.7% 5.5–8.0% 5.3–8.2% 5.0–8.7%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.5% 1.5–3.9%
50Plus 3.1% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.1% 1.7–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.7% 1.0–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 39 39–41 39–42 39–44 39–44
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 18–21 16–21 16–21 15–21
GroenLinks 14 14 14 14–16 13–17 11–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 12 12–13 12–15 12–18 12–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 13–14 13–14 12–14 11–15
Socialistische Partij 14 13 9–13 9–13 9–13 9–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 11 11 10–11 10–11 8–12
Democraten 66 19 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 6 6 5–8 4–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
50Plus 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 2 2 2–3 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 70% 99.6% Median
40 0.2% 30%  
41 23% 30%  
42 4% 7%  
43 0.1% 3%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.9%  
16 5% 99.1%  
17 3% 94%  
18 2% 91%  
19 65% 89% Median
20 1.1% 24% Last Result
21 23% 23%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.6% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.4%  
13 2% 99.3%  
14 90% 97% Last Result, Median
15 1.3% 8%  
16 3% 6%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 67% 99.7% Median
13 24% 33%  
14 0.6% 9%  
15 5% 8%  
16 0.2% 3%  
17 0.1% 3%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.3%  
13 72% 97% Median
14 24% 25%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 27% 99.9%  
10 2% 72%  
11 2% 70%  
12 2% 68%  
13 66% 66% Median
14 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 98.8%  
10 4% 98.7%  
11 93% 94% Median
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 28% 99.6%  
10 69% 72% Median
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.6%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.1% 100%  
5 3% 98.9% Last Result
6 92% 96% Median
7 0.5% 3%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 27% 98%  
4 69% 71% Median
5 2% 2% Last Result
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.2% 100%  
3 29% 98.8%  
4 69% 69% Last Result, Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 3% 99.8%  
3 70% 97% Last Result, Median
4 27% 27%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 95% 99.4% Median
3 4% 5% Last Result
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 84 100% 84–90 84–90 84–90 81–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 81 100% 81–84 81–88 81–89 81–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 80 100% 80–83 80–86 80–87 80–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 81–86 81–86 81–86 79–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 70 0.9% 70–75 70–75 70–75 70–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 69 0.1% 69–72 69–74 69–74 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 67 0.2% 67–70 67–73 67–74 67–74
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 80 68 0% 65–68 65–70 65–72 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 66 0% 66–68 66–71 66–71 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 65 0% 65–69 65–71 65–71 65–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 64 0% 64–68 64–70 64–70 64–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 62 0% 62–65 62–67 62–68 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 61 0% 61–65 61–66 61–67 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 62 0% 62–64 62–64 62–66 62–68
GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 55 0% 55–56 55–59 55–63 54–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 52 0% 52–55 52–55 52–57 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 51 0% 51–54 51–57 51–57 51–59
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 35 0% 35–36 35–38 35–41 34–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 31–33 31–35 30–37 30–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 25–27 25–28 25–31 24–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 22 0% 22 22–25 22–28 21–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.7% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.3%  
83 0.3% 99.2%  
84 65% 98.8% Median
85 0.3% 34%  
86 5% 34%  
87 0.5% 29%  
88 5% 28%  
89 0.2% 24%  
90 23% 23%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 66% 99.9% Median
82 0.2% 34%  
83 23% 34%  
84 2% 11%  
85 0.1% 10%  
86 0.2% 9%  
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 7%  
89 4% 4%  
90 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 65% 99.7% Median
81 1.0% 35%  
82 0.6% 34%  
83 26% 33%  
84 0.1% 8%  
85 0.7% 7% Last Result
86 4% 7%  
87 1.3% 3%  
88 1.3% 1.5%  
89 0% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.9% 99.8%  
80 0.1% 98.9%  
81 65% 98.9% Median
82 1.3% 34%  
83 4% 33%  
84 4% 29%  
85 0.8% 25%  
86 24% 24%  
87 0% 0.7%  
88 0.6% 0.6%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 65% 99.5% Median
71 0.9% 35%  
72 2% 34% Last Result
73 6% 32%  
74 2% 25%  
75 23% 24%  
76 0.2% 0.9% Majority
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.8% 99.8%  
69 65% 99.1% Median
70 0.3% 34%  
71 1.4% 34%  
72 24% 32%  
73 0.8% 8%  
74 6% 8%  
75 1.4% 1.5%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 65% 99.6% Median
68 0.8% 35%  
69 23% 34%  
70 2% 11%  
71 0.9% 9%  
72 0.9% 8%  
73 4% 7%  
74 3% 3%  
75 0% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.7%  
65 25% 99.7%  
66 0.2% 75%  
67 2% 75%  
68 67% 73% Median
69 0.8% 7%  
70 1.4% 6%  
71 0.1% 5%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.0% 1.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 66% 99.6% Median
67 0.4% 34%  
68 24% 34%  
69 0.3% 9%  
70 3% 9%  
71 4% 6%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 66% 99.8% Median
66 0.2% 34%  
67 0.4% 34%  
68 2% 34%  
69 23% 32%  
70 3% 8%  
71 3% 5%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 65% 99.9% Median
65 0.5% 35%  
66 1.0% 35%  
67 1.5% 34%  
68 23% 32%  
69 4% 9%  
70 5% 5%  
71 0.1% 0.9%  
72 0.1% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.6%  
74 0.5% 0.5%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 65% 99.8% Median
63 1.1% 35%  
64 0.9% 34%  
65 24% 33%  
66 0.4% 9%  
67 5% 9%  
68 2% 3%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.6% 0.6%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 65% 99.7% Median
62 0.1% 35%  
63 23% 35%  
64 0.9% 12%  
65 3% 11%  
66 3% 7%  
67 3% 4%  
68 0.6% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
62 69% 99.5% Median
63 1.5% 30%  
64 25% 29%  
65 0.2% 4%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.6% 0.8%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.2% 99.6%  
55 66% 99.5% Median
56 25% 33%  
57 2% 9%  
58 1.3% 7%  
59 1.3% 6%  
60 0.1% 5%  
61 1.2% 4%  
62 0.1% 3%  
63 3% 3%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.7%  
52 69% 98.6% Median
53 0.2% 30%  
54 2% 30%  
55 25% 28%  
56 0.9% 4%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0% 0.7%  
59 0.6% 0.6%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 65% 99.8% Median
52 0.4% 35% Last Result
53 0.4% 35%  
54 24% 34%  
55 1.5% 10%  
56 2% 8%  
57 6% 6%  
58 0.2% 1.0%  
59 0.6% 0.8%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.2% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.5%  
35 65% 98% Median
36 24% 32%  
37 2% 8%  
38 3% 7%  
39 0.9% 4%  
40 0.1% 3%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 65% 97% Median
32 1.1% 32%  
33 24% 31% Last Result
34 0.8% 7%  
35 2% 7%  
36 1.1% 4%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.2% 99.7%  
25 67% 99.5% Median
26 0.5% 32%  
27 25% 32%  
28 3% 6% Last Result
29 0.4% 4%  
30 0.6% 4%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 88% 98% Median
23 0.9% 10%  
24 4% 9%  
25 1.1% 5%  
26 1.0% 4%  
27 0.1% 3%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations