Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 4 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.9% 21.0–22.9% 20.7–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.0–23.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.3% 14.4–16.1% 14.2–16.4% 14.0–16.6% 13.6–17.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.0%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
50Plus 3.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 32–36 32–36 32–36 32–36
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 23 23–24 22–24 22–25 21–27
Partij van de Arbeid 9 17 15–18 14–18 14–18 14–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 12–13 11–14 11–15 11–16
Democraten 66 19 14 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–15
Socialistische Partij 14 12 12 12 11–13 10–13
GroenLinks 14 11 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 9 9–10 9–11 9–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
50Plus 4 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 60% 99.6% Median
33 2% 40% Last Result
34 8% 38%  
35 9% 30%  
36 21% 21%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 2% 100%  
22 5% 98%  
23 75% 93% Median
24 14% 19%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.1% 0.6%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 6% 100%  
15 4% 94%  
16 9% 90%  
17 53% 81% Median
18 28% 28%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 9% 100%  
12 22% 91%  
13 60% 69% Median
14 6% 9%  
15 1.1% 3%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 26% 99.5%  
13 4% 74%  
14 66% 69% Median
15 4% 4%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 4% 99.4%  
12 93% 95% Median
13 2% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 3% 100%  
10 21% 97%  
11 55% 76% Median
12 14% 21%  
13 7% 7%  
14 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.6% 100%  
9 63% 99.4% Median
10 31% 37%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 10% 99.4% Last Result
6 89% 90% Median
7 0.8% 0.9%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 28% 99.9%  
5 17% 72% Last Result
6 55% 55% Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 38% 100% Last Result
4 61% 62% Median
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 56% 100% Median
2 44% 44%  
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 25% 100%  
2 75% 75% Median
3 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 81 100% 81–84 79–85 79–86 79–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 82 100% 81–84 80–84 80–84 79–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 77 100% 77–81 76–81 76–82 76–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 76 89% 75–78 75–80 75–80 74–80
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 80 73 0% 70–73 70–73 70–73 68–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 68 0% 68–71 67–71 67–73 67–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 65 0% 64–67 63–67 63–69 63–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 62 0% 61–66 61–66 61–66 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 63 0% 62–66 61–66 61–66 59–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 59 0% 59–63 57–64 57–64 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 59 0% 59–61 57–62 57–63 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 58–61 55–62 55–62 55–63
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 58–61 58–61 57–61 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 55 0% 55–60 54–60 54–60 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 54 0% 54–58 52–58 52–58 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 49–54 48–54 48–54 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 45 0% 45–48 43–49 43–49 43–50
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 44 0% 42–44 40–44 40–44 40–46
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 34–36 34–36 33–36 32–38
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 30 0% 28–30 28–30 27–31 27–32
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 24–27 24–28 24–28 24–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 8% 100%  
80 0.2% 92%  
81 46% 92% Median
82 0.4% 46%  
83 8% 45%  
84 30% 37%  
85 4% 7%  
86 2% 3%  
87 1.1% 1.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 1.4% 99.8%  
80 6% 98%  
81 14% 92%  
82 46% 78% Median
83 3% 31%  
84 26% 28%  
85 2% 2% Last Result
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 8% 100% Majority
77 46% 92% Median
78 0.3% 46%  
79 2% 45%  
80 16% 43%  
81 23% 28%  
82 4% 5%  
83 0.8% 1.1%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 1.0% 99.6%  
75 9% 98.6%  
76 70% 89% Median, Majority
77 1.4% 19%  
78 9% 18%  
79 3% 8%  
80 5% 5%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.5% 100%  
68 1.0% 99.5%  
69 0.4% 98.5%  
70 24% 98%  
71 7% 74%  
72 4% 67%  
73 61% 63% Median
74 2% 2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 9% 99.9%  
68 46% 91% Median
69 5% 45%  
70 8% 40%  
71 27% 32%  
72 2% 5% Last Result
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.3% 100%  
63 9% 99.7%  
64 5% 91%  
65 49% 86% Median
66 21% 37%  
67 12% 16%  
68 0.1% 4%  
69 4% 4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 14% 99.7% Last Result
62 48% 86% Median
63 9% 38%  
64 8% 29%  
65 2% 21%  
66 19% 20%  
67 0.6% 0.6%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.6% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.3%  
61 5% 98% Last Result
62 5% 93%  
63 48% 88% Median
64 10% 39%  
65 8% 29%  
66 21% 21%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 8% 100%  
58 0.1% 92%  
59 46% 92% Median
60 1.3% 46%  
61 7% 44% Last Result
62 7% 38%  
63 23% 31%  
64 6% 8%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 9% 99.7%  
58 1.0% 91%  
59 52% 90% Median
60 21% 38%  
61 12% 17%  
62 2% 6%  
63 4% 4%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 8% 100%  
56 0.2% 92%  
57 0.2% 92% Last Result
58 46% 91% Median
59 2% 45%  
60 12% 44%  
61 22% 31%  
62 7% 9%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.6% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.4%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 22% 97%  
59 9% 76%  
60 4% 67%  
61 60% 63% Median
62 2% 2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 8% 99.9%  
55 46% 92% Median
56 1.1% 46%  
57 1.1% 45%  
58 12% 44% Last Result
59 3% 32%  
60 27% 29%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 8% 100%  
53 0.1% 92%  
54 46% 92% Last Result, Median
55 1.4% 45%  
56 5% 44%  
57 10% 39%  
58 27% 29%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 2% 100%  
48 5% 98%  
49 51% 93% Median
50 12% 42%  
51 9% 29%  
52 0.9% 21%  
53 1.0% 20%  
54 19% 19%  
55 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 8% 100%  
44 0.3% 92%  
45 50% 91% Median
46 2% 41%  
47 9% 39%  
48 23% 30%  
49 6% 7%  
50 0.8% 0.9%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 7% 99.7%  
41 2% 93%  
42 20% 91%  
43 14% 70%  
44 56% 56% Median
45 0.2% 0.9%  
46 0.8% 0.8%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 2% 100%  
33 2% 98% Last Result
34 11% 96%  
35 11% 85%  
36 73% 74% Median
37 0.2% 1.1%  
38 0.8% 0.8%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 3% 99.9%  
28 7% 97% Last Result
29 15% 90%  
30 71% 75% Median
31 3% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.5%  
33 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 21% 100%  
25 10% 79%  
26 7% 69%  
27 57% 62% Median
28 3% 5%  
29 1.4% 2%  
30 0.8% 0.8%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations