Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 9–12 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 26.9% 25.6–28.3% 25.3–28.7% 24.9–29.0% 24.3–29.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.5% 11.6–13.6% 11.3–13.9% 11.1–14.1% 10.6–14.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.4% 8.6–10.4% 8.4–10.6% 8.2–10.9% 7.8–11.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.8% 8.0–9.7% 7.8–9.9% 7.6–10.2% 7.2–10.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 7.9–9.6% 7.7–9.9% 7.5–10.1% 7.1–10.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.2% 5.5–7.0% 5.3–7.2% 5.2–7.4% 4.9–7.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 4.8% 4.2–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–5.9% 3.7–6.3%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.6% 4.0–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–6.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.2% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–4.0% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.6%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.7–2.1%
50Plus 3.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 42 42 42 40–44 39–44
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 19 19 18–19 18–21
Democraten 66 19 15 15 13–15 13–15 13–16
GroenLinks 14 13 13 13 13–14 12–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 13 13 13–14 11–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 14 13–14 13–14 12–14
Socialistische Partij 14 10 10 8–10 8–10 8–11
Forum voor Democratie 2 7 7 7–8 7–9 6–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 6 6–7 6–7 6–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5 5 5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3 3 3–4
DENK 3 1 1 1 1–2 1–3
50Plus 4 1 1 1 1 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 2% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 98%  
41 1.1% 97%  
42 91% 96% Median
43 0.2% 4%  
44 4% 4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.5%  
19 96% 97% Median
20 0.8% 1.4% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.5%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 5% 99.9%  
14 3% 95%  
15 91% 92% Median
16 0.9% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.8%  
13 95% 98.6% Median
14 3% 4% Last Result
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.1% 100%  
12 1.0% 98.8%  
13 95% 98% Median
14 3% 3%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.5% 99.9%  
13 6% 98%  
14 92% 93% Median
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 6% 100%  
9 1.3% 94%  
10 91% 93% Median
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 92% 99.3% Median
8 3% 7%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 92% 99.9% Median
7 7% 8%  
8 0.6% 0.7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 0.9% 99.7%  
5 97% 98.8% Last Result, Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 98% 99.7% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 95% 100% Median
2 4% 5%  
3 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 98.8% 99.9% Median
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 89 100% 89 89 88–90 85–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 90 100% 90 90 88–90 84–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 84 100% 84 84–85 82–88 81–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 81 81–82 79–85 78–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 76 96% 76 76 74–77 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 74 4% 74 74 71–76 71–76
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 71 0% 71 69–71 67–71 67–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 71 0% 71 70–71 67–71 65–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 70 0% 70 70 67–70 65–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 69 0% 69 69 67–70 64–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 66 0% 66 66 65–70 64–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 65 0% 65 65 64–69 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 63 0% 63 63 62–67 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 62 0% 62 62 61–66 59–66
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 61 59–61 59–62 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 55 0% 55 55 53–57 51–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 56 0% 56 56 53–57 51–57
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 42 39–42 39–42 37–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 33 33 33–34 30–35
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 28 0% 28 26–28 26–28 25–29
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 27 26–27 26–27 24–28

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.8% 100%  
86 0.9% 99.2%  
87 0.3% 98%  
88 2% 98%  
89 91% 96% Median
90 4% 5% Last Result
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.4% 100%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 0.2% 99.2% Last Result
86 0.3% 99.1%  
87 0.8% 98.7%  
88 2% 98%  
89 0.6% 96%  
90 95% 95% Median
91 0.3% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.5% 99.9%  
82 3% 99.4%  
83 0.3% 96%  
84 91% 96% Median
85 0.2% 5%  
86 0.4% 5%  
87 0.4% 5%  
88 4% 4%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.1% 100%  
78 1.3% 99.8%  
79 2% 98.5%  
80 0.4% 96%  
81 91% 96% Median
82 0.5% 5%  
83 0.5% 5%  
84 0.1% 4%  
85 4% 4%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 0.2% 99.2%  
74 3% 99.0%  
75 0.3% 96%  
76 91% 96% Last Result, Median, Majority
77 4% 5%  
78 0.3% 0.7%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 3% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 97% Last Result
73 0.4% 96%  
74 91% 96% Median
75 0.5% 5%  
76 4% 4% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 4% 99.5%  
68 0.6% 96%  
69 1.2% 95%  
70 0.5% 94%  
71 93% 93% Median
72 0.1% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.5%  
74 0.4% 0.4%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.4% 100%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 0.2% 98.9%  
67 2% 98.7%  
68 0.4% 97%  
69 0.5% 97%  
70 5% 96%  
71 91% 91% Median
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.4% 100%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 0.1% 99.1%  
67 2% 99.0%  
68 1.0% 97%  
69 0.3% 96%  
70 95% 95% Median
71 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.4% 100%  
64 0.5% 99.6%  
65 0.9% 99.1%  
66 0.3% 98%  
67 2% 98%  
68 0.7% 96%  
69 91% 95% Median
70 4% 4%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 1.4% 99.6%  
65 2% 98%  
66 91% 96% Median
67 0.2% 5%  
68 0.1% 5%  
69 0.6% 5%  
70 4% 4%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.7% 99.9%  
63 1.0% 99.2%  
64 2% 98%  
65 91% 96% Median
66 0.1% 5%  
67 0.3% 5%  
68 0.4% 4%  
69 4% 4%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 100%  
60 1.1% 99.9%  
61 1.0% 98.7%  
62 2% 98%  
63 91% 96% Median
64 0.3% 5%  
65 0.3% 5%  
66 0.4% 4%  
67 4% 4%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 1.5% 99.9%  
60 0.8% 98%  
61 2% 98%  
62 91% 96% Median
63 0.4% 5%  
64 0.1% 4%  
65 0.4% 4%  
66 4% 4%  
67 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 1.2% 99.5%  
59 4% 98%  
60 0.5% 94%  
61 91% 94% Median
62 0.6% 3%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.5% 100%  
52 1.2% 99.5% Last Result
53 2% 98%  
54 0.7% 96%  
55 91% 95% Median
56 0.1% 5%  
57 4% 4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.9%  
52 0.8% 99.4%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 1.3% 97%  
55 0.2% 95%  
56 91% 95% Median
57 4% 4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.8% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.2%  
39 4% 99.1%  
40 1.4% 95%  
41 0.2% 93%  
42 93% 93% Median
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.8% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.1%  
32 0.2% 98%  
33 95% 98% Last Result, Median
34 0.9% 3%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 4% 98.8%  
27 1.4% 95%  
28 92% 93% Median
29 0.7% 0.9%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 98%  
26 5% 98%  
27 91% 93% Median
28 2% 2% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations