Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 16–17 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.9% 21.0–22.9% 20.7–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.0–23.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.9% 15.1–16.8% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.7%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.3% 8.6–10.0% 8.5–10.2% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.0%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 34 32–35 32–36 30–36 30–37
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 24 23–26 23–26 23–28 23–28
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 13–16 13–16 13–16 13–16
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 12 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–16
Democraten 66 19 12 11–14 11–14 11–14 11–14
GroenLinks 14 12 11–12 11–13 11–13 10–13
Socialistische Partij 14 11 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–12
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
ChristenUnie 5 7 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
DENK 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
50Plus 4 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Code Oranje 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 3% 100%  
31 0.1% 97%  
32 14% 97%  
33 19% 83% Last Result
34 16% 64% Median
35 38% 48%  
36 9% 10%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 15% 99.9%  
24 58% 85% Median
25 2% 26%  
26 21% 24%  
27 0.5% 3%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 50% 99.9% Median
14 26% 50%  
15 12% 24%  
16 12% 12%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 7% 100%  
12 61% 93% Median
13 14% 32%  
14 16% 18%  
15 0.5% 2%  
16 1.5% 1.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 28% 99.8%  
12 40% 71% Median
13 17% 31%  
14 14% 14%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 40% 99.4%  
12 53% 60% Median
13 7% 7%  
14 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 14% 100%  
10 8% 86%  
11 77% 78% Median
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 12% 99.8%  
10 72% 88% Median
11 3% 16%  
12 13% 13%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 24% 98% Last Result
6 21% 74%  
7 52% 52% Median
8 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 16% 100%  
5 83% 84% Last Result, Median
6 1.0% 1.4%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 15% 100% Last Result
4 85% 85% Median
5 0.4% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 29% 100%  
3 50% 71% Last Result, Median
4 22% 22%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 76% 76% Median
2 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 85 100% 84–86 83–86 83–87 83–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 80–82 79–82 79–83 79–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 79 94% 77–81 75–81 75–81 75–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 77 76% 73–80 73–80 73–80 73–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 71 0.2% 68–72 68–73 68–74 68–74
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 66 0% 66–69 66–69 65–70 65–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 66 0% 61–68 61–68 61–68 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 63 0% 61–63 59–64 59–64 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 60 0% 59–63 58–63 58–63 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 61 0% 59–62 57–62 57–62 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 60 0% 59–62 58–62 57–62 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 59 0% 56–62 55–62 55–62 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 57–60 55–60 55–60 55–61
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 55 0% 55–59 55–59 54–59 54–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 57 0% 55–58 53–58 53–58 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 47–50 47–51 44–51 44–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 47 0% 45–48 44–48 44–48 44–50
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 47 38 0% 37–41 36–41 36–41 36–44
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 32–34 31–34 31–34 31–36
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 26 0% 25–29 25–29 25–29 25–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 24 0% 23–28 22–28 22–28 22–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 7% 99.7%  
84 13% 93% Median
85 66% 80%  
86 10% 14%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.5% 0.8%  
89 0.3% 0.3%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 7% 99.8%  
80 13% 93% Median
81 53% 80%  
82 24% 27%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.8% 1.1%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 6% 100%  
76 3% 94% Majority
77 13% 91%  
78 3% 78% Median
79 59% 75%  
80 0.6% 17%  
81 15% 16%  
82 0.6% 1.2%  
83 0.6% 0.6%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 12% 100%  
74 10% 88%  
75 3% 79%  
76 7% 76% Majority
77 54% 69% Median
78 1.1% 15%  
79 0.3% 14%  
80 14% 14%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 12% 99.9%  
69 0.9% 88%  
70 10% 87% Median
71 50% 77%  
72 21% 27% Last Result
73 3% 6%  
74 3% 3%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 3% 100%  
66 51% 97%  
67 3% 47% Median
68 29% 44%  
69 13% 15%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 18% 99.9%  
62 3% 82%  
63 3% 79%  
64 8% 76%  
65 16% 69% Median
66 38% 53%  
67 0.5% 14%  
68 13% 14%  
69 0% 0.4%  
70 0.4% 0.4%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 6% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 94%  
61 18% 94% Last Result
62 3% 76% Median
63 62% 72%  
64 9% 10%  
65 0.5% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 9% 99.9%  
59 12% 91% Median
60 40% 79%  
61 26% 38% Last Result
62 0.7% 12%  
63 11% 12%  
64 0.6% 0.8%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 6% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.3% 94%  
59 18% 94%  
60 1.1% 76% Median
61 65% 75%  
62 9% 10%  
63 1.1% 1.4%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 3% 99.9%  
58 6% 97%  
59 12% 91% Median
60 54% 78%  
61 14% 25% Last Result
62 10% 11%  
63 0.8% 1.1%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 6% 100%  
56 12% 94%  
57 4% 82%  
58 16% 78% Median
59 45% 62%  
60 1.2% 17%  
61 2% 16%  
62 13% 14%  
63 0.2% 0.6%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 6% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 94%  
57 18% 94%  
58 4% 76% Last Result, Median
59 49% 72%  
60 23% 24%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 3% 100%  
55 49% 97%  
56 1.1% 48% Median
57 15% 47%  
58 16% 31%  
59 13% 15%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 6% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 94% Last Result
55 18% 94%  
56 1.2% 76% Median
57 51% 75%  
58 22% 24%  
59 0.9% 1.5%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 3% 100%  
45 0.2% 97%  
46 0.1% 97%  
47 34% 97% Median
48 52% 63%  
49 2% 12%  
50 0.3% 10%  
51 10% 10%  
52 0% 0.2%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 9% 99.8%  
45 25% 91%  
46 4% 66% Median
47 37% 62%  
48 24% 25%  
49 1.0% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 7% 100%  
37 37% 93% Median
38 11% 56%  
39 13% 45%  
40 13% 31%  
41 16% 19%  
42 0.6% 2%  
43 0.1% 2%  
44 1.5% 1.5%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 9% 99.7%  
32 44% 91% Median
33 32% 47% Last Result
34 13% 15%  
35 0.3% 2%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 43% 100% Median
26 16% 57%  
27 22% 41%  
28 5% 19% Last Result
29 12% 14%  
30 0.1% 2%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 7% 100%  
23 9% 93%  
24 51% 84% Median
25 14% 33%  
26 0.5% 19%  
27 3% 18%  
28 13% 15%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations