Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 23–26 October 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 27.1% | 25.4–28.9% | 24.9–29.4% | 24.5–29.9% | 23.7–30.7% | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.1–14.4% | 10.8–14.8% | 10.2–15.5% | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 10.8% | 9.7–12.2% | 9.4–12.5% | 9.1–12.9% | 8.6–13.5% | 
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.1–10.4% | 7.8–10.7% | 7.5–11.0% | 7.1–11.6% | 
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 8.8% | 7.8–10.1% | 7.5–10.4% | 7.3–10.7% | 6.8–11.3% | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 8.5% | 7.5–9.7% | 7.2–10.0% | 6.9–10.3% | 6.5–10.9% | 
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–7.9% | 4.6–8.5% | 
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.5–4.7% | 2.2–5.1% | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.2–3.6% | 
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% | 
| DENK | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 41 | 39–44 | 39–45 | 38–45 | 37–46 | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 18 | 18–20 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 15–23 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–20 | 
| GroenLinks | 14 | 12 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–17 | 
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 10–16 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 9 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–8 | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 
| 50Plus | 4 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 
| DENK | 3 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 39 | 10% | 97% | |
| 40 | 4% | 87% | |
| 41 | 58% | 83% | Median | 
| 42 | 3% | 25% | |
| 43 | 4% | 22% | |
| 44 | 11% | 19% | |
| 45 | 7% | 8% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 17 | 3% | 98% | |
| 18 | 57% | 95% | Median | 
| 19 | 20% | 38% | |
| 20 | 9% | 19% | Last Result | 
| 21 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 22 | 7% | 8% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 12% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 6% | 88% | |
| 15 | 9% | 82% | |
| 16 | 6% | 72% | |
| 17 | 2% | 66% | |
| 18 | 62% | 64% | Median | 
| 19 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result | 
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 57% | 98% | Median | 
| 13 | 19% | 41% | |
| 14 | 13% | 22% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 8% | 9% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | 
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 8% | 98% | |
| 13 | 5% | 90% | |
| 14 | 72% | 86% | Median | 
| 15 | 12% | 14% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 10 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 18% | 99.0% | |
| 12 | 13% | 81% | |
| 13 | 6% | 67% | |
| 14 | 3% | 62% | |
| 15 | 56% | 58% | Median | 
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | 
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 7% | 98% | |
| 9 | 73% | 91% | Median | 
| 10 | 4% | 18% | |
| 11 | 4% | 14% | |
| 12 | 9% | 9% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 98% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 65% | 93% | Median | 
| 7 | 5% | 28% | |
| 8 | 20% | 22% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 66% | 98% | Median | 
| 5 | 15% | 32% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 15% | 17% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | 
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 3 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 23% | 98% | |
| 5 | 70% | 75% | Median | 
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | 
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 10% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 79% | 90% | Last Result, Median | 
| 4 | 9% | 11% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | 
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 13% | 97% | |
| 2 | 82% | 84% | Median | 
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result | 
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 85% | 98% | Median | 
| 2 | 12% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 0.7% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 0% | 0% | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 90 | 91 | 100% | 89–93 | 88–94 | 87–96 | 86–97 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 85 | 94 | 100% | 89–94 | 88–94 | 87–94 | 85–97 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 85 | 100% | 83–86 | 82–88 | 80–88 | 79–89 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 82 | 99.3% | 80–83 | 78–85 | 77–86 | 75–86 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 72 | 77 | 90% | 76–79 | 74–81 | 72–82 | 71–82 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 76 | 79 | 93% | 76–80 | 75–81 | 73–81 | 72–83 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 80 | 74 | 5% | 69–75 | 69–75 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 71 | 73 | 0.8% | 70–73 | 68–73 | 67–74 | 65–76 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 74 | 0.8% | 68–74 | 68–74 | 66–74 | 65–77 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 70 | 0% | 65–70 | 65–71 | 64–71 | 63–74 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 69 | 0% | 65–69 | 64–69 | 63–69 | 62–73 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 67 | 0% | 64–67 | 62–67 | 62–68 | 60–71 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 66 | 0% | 62–66 | 60–66 | 60–66 | 59–69 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 66 | 65 | 0% | 60–65 | 60–66 | 58–66 | 57–68 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 54 | 64 | 0% | 60–64 | 59–64 | 58–65 | 57–67 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 59 | 0% | 56–59 | 54–60 | 54–61 | 53–63 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 56 | 0% | 50–56 | 50–57 | 50–57 | 49–60 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 47 | 47 | 0% | 39–47 | 38–47 | 38–47 | 38–47 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 33 | 39 | 0% | 32–39 | 32–39 | 32–39 | 31–41 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 38 | 32 | 0% | 27–32 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 25–34 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 28 | 33 | 0% | 26–33 | 24–33 | 24–33 | 24–34 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 86 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 87 | 2% | 98% | |
| 88 | 2% | 96% | |
| 89 | 6% | 94% | |
| 90 | 2% | 88% | Last Result | 
| 91 | 61% | 86% | Median | 
| 92 | 3% | 24% | |
| 93 | 15% | 22% | |
| 94 | 2% | 7% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 96 | 3% | 4% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Last Result | 
| 86 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 87 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 88 | 4% | 97% | |
| 89 | 13% | 94% | |
| 90 | 12% | 80% | |
| 91 | 2% | 68% | |
| 92 | 6% | 66% | |
| 93 | 4% | 60% | |
| 94 | 54% | 56% | Median | 
| 95 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 96 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 97 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 78 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 80 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 82 | 3% | 96% | |
| 83 | 8% | 93% | |
| 84 | 16% | 85% | |
| 85 | 54% | 68% | Median | 
| 86 | 5% | 14% | |
| 87 | 2% | 8% | |
| 88 | 6% | 7% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 75 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.3% | Majority | 
| 77 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 78 | 2% | 97% | |
| 79 | 2% | 95% | |
| 80 | 12% | 93% | |
| 81 | 12% | 81% | |
| 82 | 58% | 69% | Median | 
| 83 | 4% | 12% | |
| 84 | 2% | 7% | |
| 85 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 86 | 4% | 5% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 2% | 98.6% | Last Result | 
| 73 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 74 | 2% | 95% | |
| 75 | 3% | 93% | |
| 76 | 20% | 90% | Majority | 
| 77 | 56% | 70% | Median | 
| 78 | 4% | 14% | |
| 79 | 4% | 10% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 82 | 4% | 5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 75 | 3% | 96% | |
| 76 | 4% | 93% | Last Result, Majority | 
| 77 | 4% | 88% | |
| 78 | 10% | 85% | |
| 79 | 63% | 74% | Median | 
| 80 | 5% | 11% | |
| 81 | 3% | 5% | |
| 82 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 69 | 18% | 97% | |
| 70 | 4% | 79% | |
| 71 | 4% | 76% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 72% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 71% | |
| 74 | 54% | 69% | Median | 
| 75 | 10% | 15% | |
| 76 | 2% | 5% | Majority | 
| 77 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 97% | |
| 69 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 70 | 2% | 92% | |
| 71 | 16% | 90% | Last Result | 
| 72 | 13% | 74% | |
| 73 | 58% | 61% | Median | 
| 74 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 68 | 19% | 96% | |
| 69 | 6% | 76% | |
| 70 | 2% | 71% | |
| 71 | 4% | 68% | |
| 72 | 6% | 64% | |
| 73 | 2% | 58% | |
| 74 | 54% | 56% | Median | 
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.8% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 65 | 8% | 97% | |
| 66 | 2% | 89% | |
| 67 | 4% | 87% | |
| 68 | 2% | 82% | |
| 69 | 21% | 80% | |
| 70 | 54% | 59% | Median | 
| 71 | 4% | 6% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 2% | 95% | |
| 65 | 4% | 94% | |
| 66 | 12% | 89% | |
| 67 | 13% | 77% | |
| 68 | 7% | 64% | |
| 69 | 55% | 57% | Median | 
| 70 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 62 | 4% | 98% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 64 | 11% | 92% | |
| 65 | 12% | 81% | |
| 66 | 9% | 69% | |
| 67 | 57% | 59% | Median | 
| 68 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result | 
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 61 | 4% | 95% | |
| 62 | 2% | 91% | |
| 63 | 15% | 90% | |
| 64 | 11% | 75% | |
| 65 | 2% | 63% | |
| 66 | 59% | 61% | Median | 
| 67 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 60 | 15% | 96% | |
| 61 | 6% | 81% | |
| 62 | 2% | 76% | |
| 63 | 12% | 74% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 62% | |
| 65 | 55% | 61% | Median | 
| 66 | 3% | 5% | Last Result | 
| 67 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 5% | 94% | |
| 61 | 9% | 90% | |
| 62 | 14% | 81% | |
| 63 | 5% | 67% | |
| 64 | 59% | 62% | Median | 
| 65 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Last Result | 
| 53 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 54 | 3% | 98% | |
| 55 | 3% | 94% | |
| 56 | 4% | 92% | |
| 57 | 19% | 88% | |
| 58 | 5% | 69% | |
| 59 | 57% | 64% | Median | 
| 60 | 5% | 7% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 1.5% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 10% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 52 | 2% | 88% | |
| 53 | 2% | 87% | |
| 54 | 4% | 85% | |
| 55 | 15% | 81% | |
| 56 | 56% | 66% | Median | 
| 57 | 8% | 10% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 5% | 90% | |
| 40 | 7% | 85% | |
| 41 | 3% | 78% | |
| 42 | 2% | 75% | |
| 43 | 7% | 73% | |
| 44 | 8% | 66% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 58% | |
| 46 | 2% | 57% | |
| 47 | 55% | 55% | Last Result, Median | 
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 12% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 4% | 87% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 6% | 84% | |
| 35 | 14% | 78% | |
| 36 | 3% | 64% | |
| 37 | 3% | 61% | |
| 38 | 3% | 58% | |
| 39 | 53% | 55% | Median | 
| 40 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 27 | 15% | 97% | |
| 28 | 6% | 81% | |
| 29 | 2% | 75% | |
| 30 | 5% | 73% | |
| 31 | 3% | 68% | |
| 32 | 55% | 64% | Median | 
| 33 | 8% | 9% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 9% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 26 | 5% | 90% | |
| 27 | 7% | 85% | |
| 28 | 8% | 79% | Last Result | 
| 29 | 10% | 70% | |
| 30 | 2% | 60% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 58% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 57% | |
| 33 | 54% | 55% | Median | 
| 34 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
 - Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
 - Fieldwork period: 23–26 October 2020
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1052
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 2.39%