Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 8 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.3% 22.3–24.3% 22.0–24.6% 21.8–24.8% 21.3–25.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.9% 15.1–16.8% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.0%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 36 34–39 34–39 34–39 33–40
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 24 23–25 23–26 23–26 23–27
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 12–15 12–15 11–15 11–15
GroenLinks 14 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 12–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 11–13 11–13 11–14 11–15
Democraten 66 19 13 11–14 11–14 10–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 11 11–13 11–13 10–13 9–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 8 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
ChristenUnie 5 7 5–8 5–9 5–9 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
50Plus 4 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Code Oranje 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.5% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.5% Last Result
34 33% 98.7%  
35 1.4% 65%  
36 21% 64% Median
37 18% 43%  
38 15% 25%  
39 10% 10%  
40 0.3% 0.6%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 100%  
23 16% 99.7%  
24 49% 84% Median
25 28% 35%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.5% 0.8%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 24% 97%  
13 21% 73%  
14 34% 52% Median
15 18% 18%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.8%  
12 30% 99.7%  
13 52% 70% Median
14 18% 18% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.7%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 17% 100%  
12 5% 83%  
13 75% 78% Median
14 2% 3%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 4% 100%  
11 11% 96%  
12 17% 85%  
13 33% 67% Median
14 34% 34%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.2% 100%  
10 3% 98.8%  
11 78% 96% Median
12 3% 18%  
13 14% 14%  
14 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 4% 100%  
7 33% 96%  
8 61% 63% Median
9 1.1% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.5%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 14% 100% Last Result
6 5% 86%  
7 63% 80% Median
8 8% 17%  
9 9% 9%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 46% 99.8%  
5 35% 53% Last Result, Median
6 18% 18%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 32% 99.8% Last Result
4 33% 67% Median
5 34% 34%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 29% 99.9%  
3 70% 71% Last Result, Median
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 38% 38%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 26%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 85 100% 84–88 84–88 83–88 82–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 90 82 100% 81–83 80–83 80–84 77–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 82 100% 80–84 80–84 80–84 77–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 80–84 80–84 79–84 79–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 74 16% 72–76 72–76 72–76 70–78
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 71 0% 68–72 67–72 66–72 65–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 69 0% 69–71 67–71 66–71 64–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 61–64 61–64 60–64 59–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 62 0% 62–64 60–64 59–64 56–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 61 0% 60–64 60–64 59–64 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 61 0% 61–63 60–63 59–63 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 61 0% 60–63 59–63 59–63 57–64
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 55–61 55–61 55–61 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 56–59 56–59 55–59 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 57 0% 56–59 56–59 55–59 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 47–52 47–52 47–52 45–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 48–51 48–51 47–51 45–53
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 39 0% 36–41 36–41 36–41 35–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 31–34 31–34 30–35 30–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 24–28 24–28 24–28 24–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 23–28 23–28 23–28 22–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.3% 100%  
82 0.7% 99.7%  
83 2% 99.0%  
84 15% 97%  
85 50% 82%  
86 16% 32% Median
87 5% 16%  
88 10% 11%  
89 0.6% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.5% 100% Majority
77 0.5% 99.5%  
78 0.9% 99.0%  
79 0.6% 98%  
80 3% 98%  
81 19% 94%  
82 34% 75%  
83 38% 41% Median
84 2% 4%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.7% 100%  
78 0.5% 99.3%  
79 1.0% 98.8%  
80 19% 98%  
81 2% 79%  
82 51% 77%  
83 15% 25% Median
84 10% 11%  
85 0% 0.2% Last Result
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.3% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.7%  
79 2% 99.5%  
80 36% 97%  
81 17% 62%  
82 28% 45% Median
83 0.8% 16%  
84 14% 15%  
85 1.3% 2%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.4% 100%  
70 0.6% 99.6%  
71 0.2% 99.0%  
72 35% 98.8% Last Result
73 13% 64%  
74 5% 51% Median
75 30% 46%  
76 14% 16% Majority
77 0.6% 1.3%  
78 0.7% 0.7%  
79 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.9%  
66 4% 99.3%  
67 2% 95%  
68 24% 93%  
69 17% 69%  
70 2% 53%  
71 15% 51% Median
72 35% 36%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.4% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.6%  
64 0.4% 99.5%  
65 0.6% 99.1%  
66 1.0% 98.5%  
67 3% 97%  
68 2% 95%  
69 66% 93%  
70 15% 27% Median
71 11% 12%  
72 0.8% 0.9%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.9%  
60 1.1% 98%  
61 50% 97% Last Result
62 5% 47%  
63 16% 42% Median
64 24% 26%  
65 1.4% 2%  
66 0.7% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.7% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.3%  
58 1.1% 99.1%  
59 3% 98%  
60 0.9% 95%  
61 2% 94%  
62 57% 92%  
63 19% 35% Median
64 16% 16%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 1.5% 99.9%  
59 3% 98%  
60 16% 95%  
61 38% 79% Last Result
62 17% 42% Median
63 11% 25%  
64 14% 15%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 1.1% 100%  
59 2% 98.9%  
60 5% 97%  
61 47% 92% Last Result
62 34% 46% Median
63 10% 12%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.8% 0.8%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 1.0% 100% Last Result
58 1.0% 99.0%  
59 3% 98%  
60 16% 95%  
61 51% 79%  
62 16% 28% Median
63 10% 11%  
64 0.8% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 17% 99.8%  
56 2% 83%  
57 14% 81%  
58 15% 67%  
59 2% 52%  
60 15% 51% Median
61 35% 35%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 1.4% 100%  
55 1.1% 98.6%  
56 37% 97%  
57 1.3% 60%  
58 30% 59% Last Result, Median
59 27% 29%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.6% 1.1%  
62 0.5% 0.5%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 1.0% 100%  
54 1.4% 99.0% Last Result
55 2% 98%  
56 36% 95%  
57 16% 60%  
58 31% 43% Median
59 11% 12%  
60 0.7% 1.4%  
61 0.6% 0.7%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.4%  
47 34% 99.3%  
48 21% 65%  
49 17% 44% Median
50 1.1% 27%  
51 14% 26%  
52 11% 11%  
53 0.6% 0.6%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.8% 100%  
46 1.3% 99.2%  
47 0.8% 98%  
48 33% 97%  
49 5% 64%  
50 29% 58% Median
51 28% 29%  
52 0.7% 1.4% Last Result
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.4% 0.4%  
55 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.9% 99.9%  
36 25% 99.0%  
37 7% 74%  
38 14% 67%  
39 4% 52%  
40 0.9% 49% Median
41 48% 48%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 3% 100%  
31 15% 97%  
32 15% 82%  
33 17% 67% Last Result
34 47% 49% Median
35 3% 3%  
36 0.2% 0.4%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 19% 99.8%  
25 25% 81%  
26 4% 57%  
27 36% 52% Median
28 15% 16% Last Result
29 0.3% 0.5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.7%  
23 13% 99.2%  
24 3% 86%  
25 27% 83%  
26 4% 56%  
27 3% 51% Median
28 47% 48%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations