Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 9–16 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 29.3% 28.1–30.5% 27.7–30.8% 27.4–31.2% 26.9–31.8%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 14.0% 13.1–15.0% 12.8–15.2% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–15.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.2–10.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.2–10.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.2–10.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.2–10.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.6% 6.0–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.1%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 2.7% 2.3–3.2% 2.2–3.3% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.7%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 47 43–47 43–47 43–47 43–49
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 22 21–23 20–23 20–23 20–24
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 12 11–13 11–14 11–14 11–16
Democraten 66 19 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 11–14
GroenLinks 14 13 12–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 13–14 11–14 11–15 11–16
Socialistische Partij 14 8 8–12 8–12 8–12 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 7 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
50Plus 4 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 11% 99.6%  
44 2% 88%  
45 5% 86%  
46 18% 81%  
47 62% 63% Median
48 0.4% 1.1%  
49 0.6% 0.7%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.8%  
20 5% 99.7% Last Result
21 22% 95%  
22 58% 72% Median
23 13% 15%  
24 1.4% 1.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 18% 100%  
12 60% 82% Median
13 13% 22%  
14 8% 9%  
15 0.3% 1.0%  
16 0.7% 0.7%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 11% 98%  
13 72% 87% Median
14 14% 14%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 3% 100%  
11 3% 97%  
12 7% 94%  
13 60% 87% Median
14 21% 27% Last Result
15 5% 6%  
16 1.2% 1.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 5% 99.9%  
12 2% 95%  
13 71% 93% Median
14 19% 22%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.9% 0.9%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 54% 100% Median
9 7% 46%  
10 16% 38%  
11 6% 23%  
12 16% 17%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 15% 100% Last Result
6 16% 85%  
7 67% 69% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 8% 100%  
5 62% 92% Median
6 12% 30%  
7 17% 18%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100%  
3 26% 99.5%  
4 64% 73% Median
5 9% 9% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 20% 99.8%  
3 66% 80% Last Result, Median
4 13% 14%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 31% 99.9%  
2 69% 69% Median
3 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 92% 93% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 92 100% 89–92 88–92 87–94 87–94
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 92 100% 89–92 88–93 87–93 87–95
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 89 100% 87–89 86–90 86–90 85–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 86 100% 84–86 83–88 82–88 82–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 81 99.7% 78–81 77–82 77–82 77–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 79 80% 75–79 75–79 73–81 73–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 73 0.2% 70–73 70–73 69–74 69–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 72 0.1% 70–72 69–73 68–74 68–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 72 0.1% 70–72 68–73 67–74 67–74
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 66 0% 66–70 66–71 66–71 65–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 68 0% 65–69 65–69 64–70 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 67 0% 65–68 64–69 63–69 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 65 0% 62–65 62–66 60–67 60–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 64 0% 62–65 61–66 59–66 59–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 60 0% 56–60 56–60 56–61 56–62
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 58 0% 57–59 56–61 55–61 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 59 0% 57–59 56–60 54–60 54–63
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 38 0% 38–40 37–41 37–41 36–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 30–34 30–34 30–34 30–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 25 0% 24–27 24–28 24–28 24–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 25–27 25–27 24–28 24–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0.1% 100%  
87 4% 99.9%  
88 2% 96%  
89 20% 94%  
90 5% 75%  
91 9% 70%  
92 57% 61% Median
93 0.3% 4%  
94 3% 4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.2% 100%  
86 0% 99.8%  
87 4% 99.8%  
88 4% 96%  
89 17% 92%  
90 2% 74% Last Result
91 12% 72%  
92 55% 60% Median
93 4% 6%  
94 0.3% 1.2%  
95 0.8% 0.8%  
96 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.3% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 5% 99.3%  
87 19% 94%  
88 7% 75%  
89 60% 68% Median
90 6% 8%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.5% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 4% 99.9%  
83 2% 96%  
84 10% 94%  
85 18% 84%  
86 59% 66% Median
87 1.3% 7%  
88 4% 6%  
89 1.5% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.7% Majority
77 6% 99.6%  
78 14% 93%  
79 9% 79%  
80 8% 70%  
81 54% 63% Median
82 7% 9%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.2%  
85 0.4% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 4% 100%  
74 1.1% 96%  
75 15% 95%  
76 2% 80% Last Result, Majority
77 6% 78%  
78 13% 72%  
79 54% 59% Median
80 0.5% 5%  
81 4% 4%  
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 3% 99.6%  
70 15% 96%  
71 2% 81%  
72 6% 79%  
73 69% 73% Median
74 4% 4%  
75 0% 0.2%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 4% 99.8%  
69 4% 96%  
70 9% 91%  
71 16% 83%  
72 59% 67% Median
73 4% 8%  
74 4% 4%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 5% 100%  
68 0.3% 95%  
69 1.4% 95%  
70 16% 93%  
71 15% 77% Last Result
72 57% 62% Median
73 0.6% 5%  
74 4% 4%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.9% 99.8%  
66 60% 98.9% Median
67 6% 39%  
68 5% 33%  
69 15% 28%  
70 6% 13%  
71 6% 7%  
72 0.5% 0.6%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 4% 99.7%  
65 6% 96%  
66 0.6% 89%  
67 18% 89%  
68 58% 70% Median
69 9% 12%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 0.7%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 100%  
63 4% 99.7%  
64 5% 96%  
65 2% 91%  
66 19% 89%  
67 58% 71% Median
68 6% 13%  
69 6% 7%  
70 0.7% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 100%  
60 4% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 96%  
62 6% 96%  
63 0.6% 90%  
64 9% 89%  
65 70% 80% Median
66 5% 10%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.2% 0.8%  
69 0.5% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 4% 100%  
60 0.1% 96%  
61 6% 96%  
62 1.3% 91%  
63 8% 89%  
64 69% 81% Median
65 6% 12%  
66 5% 6%  
67 0.5% 1.1%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 12% 99.7%  
57 5% 88%  
58 1.3% 83%  
59 2% 81%  
60 76% 79% Median
61 3% 3%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 4% 99.8%  
56 3% 96%  
57 22% 94%  
58 56% 72% Median
59 6% 15%  
60 1.2% 9%  
61 6% 8%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 4% 100%  
55 0.6% 96%  
56 1.1% 96%  
57 22% 94%  
58 7% 73%  
59 61% 66% Median
60 4% 5%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.8%  
63 0.6% 0.6%  
64 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.9% 99.9%  
37 7% 99.0%  
38 77% 92% Median
39 2% 15%  
40 7% 14%  
41 6% 7%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 18% 99.8%  
31 8% 82%  
32 57% 73% Median
33 6% 17% Last Result
34 10% 11%  
35 0.3% 2%  
36 1.1% 1.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 27% 100%  
25 57% 73% Median
26 0% 17%  
27 10% 17%  
28 6% 6%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 5% 99.8%  
25 78% 95% Median
26 6% 17%  
27 7% 11%  
28 3% 4% Last Result
29 1.0% 1.2%  
30 0.1% 0.3%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations