Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 20–21 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.9% 23.0–25.0% 22.7–25.3% 22.4–25.5% 22.0–26.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.9% 15.1–16.8% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.6% 8.0–9.3% 7.8–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 37 36–40 35–40 35–40 34–41
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 24 21–26 21–26 21–27 21–27
Democraten 66 19 13 12–15 12–16 12–16 11–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 13–14 12–14 12–14 11–15
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 11 10–14 10–14 10–14 10–15
GroenLinks 14 12 10–13 10–13 10–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 9 9–12 8–12 8–12 8–12
Forum voor Democratie 2 8 7–9 7–9 6–10 6–10
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Code Oranje 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100% Last Result
34 2% 99.8%  
35 4% 98%  
36 15% 93%  
37 39% 78% Median
38 5% 39%  
39 2% 34%  
40 31% 32%  
41 0.6% 0.7%  
42 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 13% 100%  
22 9% 87%  
23 17% 78%  
24 14% 61% Median
25 36% 47%  
26 7% 11%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 2% 99.9%  
12 39% 98%  
13 18% 58% Median
14 18% 41%  
15 14% 23%  
16 9% 9%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.7% 100%  
12 9% 99.3%  
13 57% 90% Median
14 31% 33%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 15% 99.9%  
11 38% 84% Median
12 11% 46%  
13 24% 35%  
14 10% 11%  
15 1.2% 1.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 29% 100%  
11 12% 71%  
12 34% 59% Median
13 22% 25%  
14 3% 3% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 10% 100%  
9 42% 90% Median
10 19% 48%  
11 18% 29%  
12 11% 11%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 28% 95%  
8 45% 67% Median
9 17% 22%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100% Last Result
6 48% 99.0%  
7 38% 51% Median
8 12% 13%  
9 1.3% 1.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 18% 97% Last Result
6 48% 80% Median
7 31% 31%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 27% 99.6% Last Result
4 69% 73% Median
5 4% 5%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 28% 99.9%  
3 62% 71% Last Result, Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 81% 81% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 66% 66% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 85 100% 81–88 81–88 81–88 80–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 85 82 100% 80–86 80–86 79–86 78–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 81 99.7% 79–84 79–84 78–84 77–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 99.5% 78–84 78–84 78–84 76–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 74 37% 70–76 70–76 70–77 68–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 69 0.2% 67–72 67–73 66–73 65–73
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 67 0% 61–72 61–72 61–72 61–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 65 0% 62–67 62–67 60–67 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 63 0% 61–65 60–65 60–65 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 64 0% 60–64 60–64 60–65 58–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 61 0% 60–64 59–64 59–64 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 59–63 59–63 58–63 56–67
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 58 0% 52–61 52–61 52–61 52–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 56–60 56–60 55–60 52–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 57 0% 56–59 55–59 54–59 52–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 51 0% 49–53 49–53 48–53 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 47–51 47–51 47–51 44–53
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 47 38 0% 36–42 36–42 36–42 34–44
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 30–34 29–34 29–34 29–35
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 25 0% 23–28 23–28 23–28 22–30
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 28 24 0% 24–27 23–27 23–27 23–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.6% 100%  
81 13% 99.4%  
82 8% 86%  
83 11% 79%  
84 7% 68% Median
85 14% 61%  
86 14% 47%  
87 1.5% 33%  
88 29% 31%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 3% 99.4%  
80 10% 97%  
81 14% 87% Median
82 31% 73%  
83 3% 42%  
84 18% 38%  
85 7% 20% Last Result
86 13% 13%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.1% 99.7% Majority
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 3% 99.4%  
79 34% 97%  
80 10% 63% Median
81 10% 53%  
82 15% 42%  
83 5% 27%  
84 21% 22%  
85 0.5% 0.7%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0.5% 100%  
76 0% 99.5% Majority
77 0.9% 99.5%  
78 20% 98.6%  
79 10% 78%  
80 9% 68% Median
81 11% 60%  
82 7% 49%  
83 11% 42%  
84 29% 31%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.5% 100%  
69 0.8% 99.5%  
70 16% 98.7%  
71 21% 82%  
72 2% 61% Last Result, Median
73 7% 60%  
74 8% 53%  
75 9% 45%  
76 33% 37% Majority
77 3% 3%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.7% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.0%  
67 15% 97%  
68 10% 82% Median
69 32% 73%  
70 13% 41%  
71 9% 28%  
72 13% 19%  
73 6% 6%  
74 0% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.2%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 28% 100%  
62 0.2% 72%  
63 0.4% 72%  
64 0.4% 71%  
65 2% 71% Median
66 12% 68%  
67 17% 57%  
68 6% 40%  
69 11% 34%  
70 9% 23%  
71 0.2% 13%  
72 13% 13%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.8% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.2%  
60 1.4% 98.8%  
61 1.4% 97% Last Result
62 14% 96%  
63 18% 82% Median
64 9% 64%  
65 30% 55%  
66 14% 25%  
67 10% 11%  
68 0.4% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.8% 99.8%  
59 1.3% 99.0%  
60 4% 98%  
61 22% 94% Median
62 4% 72%  
63 42% 68%  
64 5% 26%  
65 21% 22%  
66 0.1% 0.6%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 1.0% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 98.9%  
60 11% 98%  
61 18% 87% Last Result, Median
62 6% 70%  
63 10% 64%  
64 50% 53%  
65 2% 3%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.8% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.2%  
59 6% 98.6%  
60 8% 93%  
61 36% 85% Last Result, Median
62 11% 49%  
63 8% 39%  
64 29% 31%  
65 0.1% 2%  
66 0.1% 2%  
67 1.4% 1.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.6% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.4% Last Result
58 3% 99.2%  
59 7% 96%  
60 39% 89% Median
61 5% 50%  
62 12% 45%  
63 31% 33%  
64 0.2% 2%  
65 0.2% 2%  
66 0.3% 1.4%  
67 1.1% 1.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 28% 100%  
53 0.4% 72%  
54 2% 71%  
55 0.9% 69%  
56 11% 69% Median
57 6% 58%  
58 16% 51%  
59 19% 35%  
60 2% 16%  
61 13% 14%  
62 0.5% 0.5%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.5% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.5%  
54 0.5% 99.0%  
55 3% 98%  
56 7% 96%  
57 27% 89% Median
58 20% 62% Last Result
59 11% 42%  
60 29% 31%  
61 0.3% 2%  
62 0.3% 2%  
63 1.4% 1.4%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.5% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.5%  
53 0.7% 99.4%  
54 2% 98.7% Last Result
55 3% 97%  
56 28% 93% Median
57 21% 65%  
58 9% 44%  
59 33% 36%  
60 0.4% 2%  
61 0.3% 2%  
62 0.4% 2%  
63 1.1% 1.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.3% 100%  
46 0% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.7%  
48 1.3% 98%  
49 20% 96%  
50 14% 76% Median
51 30% 63%  
52 1.3% 33%  
53 30% 32%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.6% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.4%  
46 0.1% 98.8%  
47 20% 98.6%  
48 11% 78% Median
49 7% 67%  
50 17% 61%  
51 42% 44%  
52 0.4% 2% Last Result
53 1.5% 2%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 1.1% 100%  
35 0.7% 98.8%  
36 29% 98%  
37 9% 69% Median
38 19% 60%  
39 7% 41%  
40 21% 35%  
41 0.4% 14%  
42 13% 14%  
43 0% 0.6%  
44 0.5% 0.5%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 6% 99.9%  
30 33% 94%  
31 14% 60% Median
32 12% 47%  
33 6% 35% Last Result
34 27% 29%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 2% 100%  
23 29% 98%  
24 11% 69% Median
25 22% 58%  
26 13% 36%  
27 4% 24%  
28 19% 19%  
29 0.2% 0.8%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 8% 99.7%  
24 44% 92% Median
25 10% 47%  
26 12% 37%  
27 23% 24%  
28 0.5% 2% Last Result
29 1.1% 1.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations