Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 20–23 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.9% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.1% 19.5–24.6% 18.8–25.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.4% 10.2–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.6–13.4% 9.0–14.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.9–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.1–13.0%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.8% 6.8–10.1% 6.3–10.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.9–9.1% 5.5–9.7%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.5–5.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
DENK 2.1% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
50Plus 3.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 31–34 31–35 31–36 28–38
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 17–19 17–20 15–20 14–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–16 14–16 14–17 13–21
Democraten 66 19 12 12–15 12–15 12–16 11–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 11–15 10–15 10–15 9–16
GroenLinks 14 12 9–12 8–12 8–14 8–14
Socialistische Partij 14 10 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–4
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
50Plus 4 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.6% 100%  
29 0% 99.4%  
30 0.4% 99.4%  
31 26% 99.0%  
32 56% 73% Median
33 2% 18% Last Result
34 10% 16%  
35 2% 6%  
36 3% 5%  
37 0.7% 1.4%  
38 0.3% 0.7%  
39 0.4% 0.4%  
40 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 3% 99.4%  
16 1.3% 96%  
17 81% 95% Median
18 2% 14%  
19 2% 12%  
20 9% 10% Last Result
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.8%  
14 11% 99.3%  
15 56% 88% Median
16 27% 32%  
17 3% 5%  
18 0.7% 2%  
19 0.2% 1.1% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.9%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 56% 98% Median
13 2% 42%  
14 12% 40%  
15 25% 27%  
16 0.6% 3%  
17 0.4% 2%  
18 0.2% 2%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100% Last Result
10 8% 99.3%  
11 3% 91%  
12 6% 88%  
13 27% 82%  
14 0.9% 54%  
15 53% 54% Median
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 8% 100%  
9 24% 92%  
10 5% 68%  
11 3% 63%  
12 56% 60% Median
13 1.4% 4%  
14 3% 3% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 3% 99.7%  
8 27% 96%  
9 13% 70%  
10 54% 56% Median
11 2% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 2% 99.8%  
5 33% 97% Last Result
6 63% 65% Median
7 1.2% 2%  
8 0.2% 0.5%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 5% 99.2%  
5 59% 94% Last Result, Median
6 35% 36%  
7 0.7% 0.8%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 2% 100%  
4 63% 98% Median
5 32% 35%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.6% 1.0%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 90% 99.0% Median
3 6% 9% Last Result
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 30% 99.4%  
2 68% 69% Median
3 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 39% 45%  
2 6% 6%  
3 0.6% 0.7%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 93% 94% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 77 92% 76–79 75–83 75–86 75–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 80 99.6% 79–81 77–82 77–83 76–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 70 3% 70–75 70–75 70–77 69–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 68 1.3% 68–73 68–73 67–75 67–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 65 0.1% 65–68 65–71 65–72 63–73
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 0% 65–70 60–70 60–70 60–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 64 0% 64–68 64–68 63–69 62–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 59 0% 59–62 59–65 59–66 59–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 59–62 58–63 58–63 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 59 0% 58–59 58–61 56–62 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 53 0% 53–57 53–59 53–61 53–64
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 56–60 51–61 51–61 51–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 53 0% 53–56 53–58 53–59 52–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 51 0% 51–54 51–57 51–58 50–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 51 0% 51–53 51–56 50–56 49–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 47 0% 47–49 47–51 46–52 45–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 47 0% 44–47 44–47 43–48 42–50
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 39–44 38–44 38–45 38–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 32–36 29–36 29–36 29–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 27 0% 27–31 27–31 27–33 25–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 30 0% 26–30 24–30 24–30 24–33

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 8% 99.6%  
76 25% 92% Majority
77 54% 67% Median
78 0.6% 13%  
79 4% 12%  
80 2% 8%  
81 0.4% 6%  
82 0.2% 5%  
83 0.9% 5%  
84 1.0% 4%  
85 0.7% 3%  
86 3% 3%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.3% 100%  
73 0% 99.7%  
74 0% 99.7%  
75 0.1% 99.7%  
76 0.2% 99.6% Majority
77 8% 99.5%  
78 0.3% 92%  
79 4% 91%  
80 77% 87% Median
81 1.5% 10%  
82 4% 9%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 55% 99.4% Median
71 25% 45%  
72 0.2% 19%  
73 4% 19%  
74 2% 15%  
75 11% 14%  
76 0.1% 3% Majority
77 1.0% 3% Last Result
78 0.3% 2%  
79 1.2% 1.4%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 3% 99.5%  
68 53% 97% Median
69 24% 44%  
70 2% 20%  
71 3% 18%  
72 3% 14%  
73 9% 12%  
74 0.2% 3% Last Result
75 1.3% 3%  
76 1.0% 1.3% Majority
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 0% 99.7%  
62 0% 99.7%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.1% 99.5%  
65 53% 99.4% Median
66 3% 46%  
67 34% 44%  
68 0.4% 10%  
69 2% 10%  
70 2% 8%  
71 0.6% 5%  
72 4% 5%  
73 0.4% 0.7%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 8% 100%  
61 0.1% 92%  
62 0.3% 92%  
63 0.3% 92%  
64 1.1% 92%  
65 1.3% 91%  
66 24% 89%  
67 2% 65%  
68 5% 63%  
69 1.1% 58%  
70 56% 57% Median
71 0.5% 1.0%  
72 0.1% 0.6%  
73 0.4% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.2%  
64 77% 97% Median
65 0.6% 20%  
66 2% 19%  
67 2% 17%  
68 11% 14%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.2% 2%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.7%  
58 0.1% 99.6%  
59 53% 99.6% Median
60 2% 46%  
61 2% 44%  
62 32% 42%  
63 1.5% 9%  
64 2% 8%  
65 1.1% 6%  
66 3% 5%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.8% 1.2%  
69 0.4% 0.4%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 2% 99.7%  
58 8% 98%  
59 0.3% 90%  
60 25% 90%  
61 4% 65% Last Result
62 55% 61% Median
63 4% 6%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.3% 1.0%  
67 0.6% 0.8%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.3% 100%  
53 0% 99.7%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 3% 99.1%  
57 0.3% 96%  
58 8% 96%  
59 78% 88% Median
60 1.4% 10%  
61 4% 8% Last Result
62 3% 5%  
63 0.9% 1.4%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 54% 99.9% Median
54 0.9% 46%  
55 25% 45%  
56 9% 19%  
57 1.1% 11%  
58 4% 9%  
59 3% 6%  
60 0.4% 3%  
61 0.9% 3% Last Result
62 0.2% 2%  
63 0.7% 1.4%  
64 0.6% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 8% 100%  
52 0% 92%  
53 0.2% 92%  
54 1.3% 92%  
55 0.3% 91%  
56 0.6% 90%  
57 2% 90%  
58 25% 88%  
59 4% 63%  
60 53% 59% Median
61 4% 6%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.9%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 2% 99.9%  
53 53% 98% Median
54 24% 44%  
55 9% 20%  
56 4% 11%  
57 1.3% 7% Last Result
58 3% 6%  
59 0.6% 3%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.2% 1.5%  
62 1.0% 1.3%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 2% 100%  
51 53% 98% Median
52 2% 46%  
53 25% 43%  
54 9% 18%  
55 3% 9%  
56 0.9% 7%  
57 3% 6%  
58 0.1% 3% Last Result
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.6% 1.5%  
61 0.7% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 2% 100%  
50 1.3% 98%  
51 54% 97% Median
52 25% 43%  
53 12% 19%  
54 0.7% 7% Last Result
55 1.4% 7%  
56 3% 5%  
57 0.2% 2%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 1.2% 1.4%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 2% 99.7%  
46 1.0% 98%  
47 76% 97% Median
48 9% 20%  
49 5% 11%  
50 0.8% 7%  
51 1.2% 6%  
52 3% 5% Last Result
53 0% 1.4%  
54 0.6% 1.4%  
55 0.8% 0.8%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.7%  
42 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
43 2% 99.2%  
44 34% 97%  
45 1.1% 63%  
46 3% 62%  
47 56% 59% Median
48 2% 3%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 9% 99.5%  
39 0.8% 90%  
40 0.9% 90%  
41 5% 89%  
42 55% 83% Median
43 1.3% 29%  
44 24% 27%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.3% 1.4%  
47 0% 0.1% Last Result
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 8% 100%  
30 0.4% 92%  
31 1.5% 92%  
32 3% 90%  
33 4% 87% Last Result
34 24% 84%  
35 4% 59%  
36 54% 56% Median
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.7%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.9%  
26 0.6% 98.7%  
27 53% 98% Median
28 10% 45%  
29 4% 35%  
30 4% 32%  
31 25% 28%  
32 0.4% 3%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 8% 99.9%  
25 0.7% 92%  
26 2% 91%  
27 5% 89%  
28 2% 84% Last Result
29 27% 82%  
30 54% 56% Median
31 0.7% 2%  
32 0.4% 1.2%  
33 0.8% 0.8%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations