Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 26–27 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 24.0% 23.0–25.0% 22.7–25.3% 22.5–25.5% 22.0–26.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 18.6% 17.7–19.6% 17.5–19.8% 17.3–20.1% 16.9–20.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 39 37–39 36–39 35–42 34–42
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 28 27–29 26–29 26–29 25–31
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Democraten 66 19 15 12–15 12–15 12–15 11–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 12–14 12–14 12–14 11–15
GroenLinks 14 10 9–11 9–11 9–12 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 8 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Forum voor Democratie 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
50Plus 4 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Code Oranje 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
34 0.3% 99.7%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 4% 97%  
37 18% 93%  
38 20% 75%  
39 51% 54% Median
40 0.3% 3%  
41 0.3% 3%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.9% 100%  
26 9% 99.1%  
27 13% 90%  
28 54% 77% Median
29 21% 23%  
30 0.9% 2%  
31 1.2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.4%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 12% 99.3%  
14 15% 87%  
15 62% 73% Median
16 10% 11%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 0.4% 99.7%  
12 14% 99.3%  
13 16% 85%  
14 13% 69%  
15 56% 56% Median
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.6% 100%  
12 51% 99.4% Median
13 24% 49%  
14 24% 25%  
15 0.2% 0.6%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 13% 100%  
10 72% 87% Median
11 10% 15%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 21% 99.3%  
10 66% 79% Median
11 12% 13%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100% Last Result
6 28% 99.8%  
7 12% 72%  
8 58% 60% Median
9 0.9% 1.1%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 61% 99.0% Last Result, Median
6 27% 38%  
7 12% 12%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 68% 99.8% Median
3 16% 32% Last Result
4 16% 16%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 57% 99.9% Median
3 33% 43% Last Result
4 11% 11%  
5 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 70% 100% Last Result, Median
3 27% 30%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 10% 100%  
2 89% 90% Median
3 1.1% 1.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 88 100% 83–89 83–89 83–89 81–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 86 100% 84–86 84–87 83–89 81–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 84 100% 82–84 81–84 80–87 78–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 86 100% 79–87 78–87 78–87 78–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 82 99.1% 79–82 78–82 77–84 75–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 75 49% 69–77 69–77 69–77 68–77
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 0% 65–70 65–70 65–71 65–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 64–67 63–67 63–69 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 68 0% 63–69 63–69 62–69 61–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 64–66 62–66 62–67 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 60 0% 58–61 57–61 56–63 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 55–58 54–58 54–61 53–61
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 55–61 54–61 54–61 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 57–59 56–59 54–61 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 53–56 53–56 52–59 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 54 0% 51–54 50–54 49–56 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 51 0% 50–52 49–52 49–55 47–55
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 39–43 39–43 39–43 37–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 33–36 33–38 33–38 31–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 27–30 27–30 26–30 24–30
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 29 0% 25–30 25–30 25–30 25–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.3% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.7%  
81 0.5% 99.6%  
82 0.6% 99.1%  
83 14% 98.5%  
84 1.4% 84%  
85 8% 83% Last Result
86 12% 75%  
87 1.3% 63%  
88 12% 62%  
89 49% 49% Median
90 0.6% 0.6%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 100%  
81 1.2% 99.8%  
82 1.1% 98.6%  
83 2% 98%  
84 10% 95%  
85 4% 86%  
86 76% 82% Median
87 1.4% 6%  
88 2% 5%  
89 3% 3%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 1.2% 100%  
79 0.4% 98.8%  
80 3% 98%  
81 1.4% 95%  
82 24% 94%  
83 12% 70%  
84 52% 57% Median
85 0.8% 5%  
86 1.3% 4%  
87 3% 3%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.3% 100%  
78 10% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 90%  
80 3% 90%  
81 3% 87%  
82 2% 84%  
83 19% 82%  
84 13% 64%  
85 0.8% 51%  
86 0.9% 50%  
87 49% 49% Median
88 0.6% 0.6%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.9% 100%  
76 0.8% 99.1% Majority
77 1.1% 98%  
78 3% 97%  
79 11% 94%  
80 26% 83%  
81 3% 57%  
82 50% 55% Median
83 0.7% 5%  
84 4% 4%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 0% 99.7%  
68 0.7% 99.6%  
69 11% 98.9%  
70 3% 88%  
71 3% 85%  
72 7% 81%  
73 12% 74%  
74 9% 62%  
75 4% 53%  
76 0% 49% Last Result, Majority
77 49% 49% Median
78 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 13% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 87%  
67 13% 86%  
68 3% 73%  
69 5% 70%  
70 61% 65% Median
71 3% 4%  
72 0.6% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
62 0.9% 99.2%  
63 4% 98%  
64 9% 94%  
65 12% 85%  
66 60% 74% Median
67 9% 13%  
68 0.8% 4%  
69 4% 4%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 2% 99.3%  
63 12% 97%  
64 3% 85%  
65 4% 82%  
66 15% 78%  
67 10% 63%  
68 4% 53%  
69 49% 49% Median
70 0.6% 0.6%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 0.7% 99.5%  
61 0.5% 98.9% Last Result
62 4% 98%  
63 2% 94%  
64 22% 92%  
65 17% 70%  
66 49% 53% Median
67 4% 4%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 3% 99.6%  
57 2% 97%  
58 9% 94%  
59 11% 85%  
60 58% 74% Median
61 12% 15% Last Result
62 0.2% 3%  
63 3% 3%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.9%  
54 8% 98%  
55 3% 90%  
56 14% 88%  
57 12% 74%  
58 57% 62% Last Result, Median
59 2% 5%  
60 0% 3%  
61 3% 3%  
62 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 10% 100%  
55 3% 90%  
56 1.1% 87%  
57 3% 86%  
58 13% 83%  
59 6% 70%  
60 53% 65% Median
61 10% 12%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 3% 99.6%  
55 1.2% 97%  
56 5% 96%  
57 17% 91% Last Result
58 59% 74% Median
59 11% 15%  
60 0.9% 4%  
61 3% 3%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 2% 99.6%  
52 2% 98%  
53 8% 96%  
54 14% 88% Last Result
55 13% 75%  
56 58% 62% Median
57 1.1% 5%  
58 0.9% 4%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.3%  
50 5% 97%  
51 17% 93%  
52 3% 75% Last Result
53 19% 72%  
54 49% 53% Median
55 0.8% 4%  
56 4% 4%  
57 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.3% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.7%  
48 0.8% 99.0%  
49 5% 98%  
50 8% 94%  
51 71% 86% Median
52 11% 15%  
53 0.5% 3%  
54 0.2% 3%  
55 3% 3%  
56 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.7%  
38 0.7% 99.0%  
39 13% 98%  
40 3% 85%  
41 4% 82%  
42 66% 78% Median
43 11% 11%  
44 0.7% 0.7%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.4%  
33 16% 98.6% Last Result
34 18% 82%  
35 52% 65% Median
36 3% 13%  
37 1.1% 10%  
38 9% 9%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.7% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.3%  
26 2% 98.9%  
27 70% 97% Median
28 15% 27% Last Result
29 2% 12%  
30 10% 10%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 10% 99.5%  
26 4% 89%  
27 6% 85%  
28 3% 80%  
29 27% 76%  
30 49% 50% Median
31 1.0% 1.0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations