Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 4–5 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 24.0% 23.0–25.0% 22.7–25.3% 22.5–25.5% 22.0–26.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.8–19.2% 16.6–19.4% 16.2–19.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 38 34–39 34–39 34–39 33–40
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 27 26–30 26–30 25–30 25–30
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 13 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Democraten 66 19 13 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 11–15
GroenLinks 14 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
50Plus 4 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Code Oranje 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 1.1% 100% Last Result
34 17% 98.9%  
35 2% 82%  
36 12% 80%  
37 7% 68%  
38 15% 61% Median
39 44% 46%  
40 1.5% 2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 13% 97%  
27 60% 84% Median
28 10% 25%  
29 3% 14%  
30 11% 11%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.3% 100%  
13 49% 98.7% Median
14 21% 50%  
15 28% 29%  
16 0.4% 0.6%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.5% 100%  
12 47% 98.5%  
13 15% 52% Median
14 29% 36%  
15 8% 8%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.6% 100%  
12 24% 99.4%  
13 57% 76% Median
14 18% 19%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 18% 99.3%  
11 64% 81% Median
12 16% 17%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 23% 99.5%  
9 68% 76% Median
10 8% 8%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100% Last Result
6 11% 99.7%  
7 39% 89% Median
8 50% 50%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 62% 97% Last Result, Median
6 17% 35%  
7 18% 18%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 51% 99.8% Last Result, Median
4 30% 48%  
5 18% 18%  
6 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.9% 100% Last Result
3 5% 99.1%  
4 82% 94% Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 23% 100%  
3 75% 77% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 38% 100%  
2 61% 62% Median
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 76% 76% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 86 100% 83–89 83–89 83–89 83–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 85 100% 82–86 82–86 81–86 80–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 80–85 80–85 79–85 78–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 83 100% 79–84 79–85 79–85 78–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 79 88% 74–80 74–81 74–81 74–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 72 0% 69–74 69–74 68–74 67–74
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 66 0% 65–69 64–69 64–70 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 64 0% 62–67 62–67 61–67 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 65 0% 62–65 62–65 62–65 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 64 0% 61–64 61–65 60–65 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 61 0% 58–63 58–63 57–63 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 57–62 56–62 56–62 55–62
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 57 0% 56–61 56–61 56–61 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 54–58 54–58 54–58 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 53–57 53–57 52–57 50–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 52 0% 48–53 48–53 48–53 47–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 51 0% 48–52 47–52 47–52 47–54
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 40 0% 38–42 38–43 38–43 36–43
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 34 0% 33–35 33–35 32–35 32–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 26 0% 25–29 25–30 25–30 24–30
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 26–28 26–28 25–28 25–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 12% 99.8%  
84 4% 87%  
85 10% 84% Median
86 47% 74%  
87 3% 27%  
88 2% 24%  
89 22% 22%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 1.0% 100%  
81 2% 99.0%  
82 10% 97%  
83 13% 87%  
84 7% 73% Median
85 47% 66% Last Result
86 17% 19%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.5% 100%  
79 2% 99.4%  
80 10% 97%  
81 19% 87%  
82 2% 68% Median
83 48% 66%  
84 5% 18%  
85 13% 13%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.7% 99.9%  
79 11% 99.2%  
80 3% 88%  
81 12% 85%  
82 1.2% 73% Median
83 46% 72%  
84 16% 26%  
85 9% 10%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100% Last Result
73 0% 99.9%  
74 11% 99.9%  
75 0.9% 89%  
76 2% 88% Majority
77 11% 86%  
78 3% 75% Median
79 46% 72%  
80 17% 26%  
81 9% 9%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 1.1% 100%  
68 2% 98.9%  
69 13% 97%  
70 9% 83%  
71 10% 74% Median
72 45% 64%  
73 6% 19%  
74 13% 13%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 10% 99.5%  
65 2% 90%  
66 45% 88% Median
67 2% 43%  
68 18% 41%  
69 19% 23%  
70 2% 4%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 1.1% 100%  
61 2% 98.9%  
62 13% 97%  
63 3% 84%  
64 60% 80% Median
65 4% 21%  
66 4% 17%  
67 13% 13%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 2% 99.8% Last Result
62 20% 98%  
63 9% 78%  
64 6% 69% Median
65 60% 63%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 3% 99.9%  
61 10% 97% Last Result
62 19% 88%  
63 3% 69%  
64 60% 65% Median
65 3% 5%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 1.3% 1.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 1.0% 100%  
57 2% 99.0%  
58 21% 97%  
59 1.3% 76%  
60 4% 75% Median
61 53% 71% Last Result
62 4% 18%  
63 13% 13%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 2% 100%  
56 4% 98%  
57 18% 94% Last Result
58 5% 76% Median
59 53% 71%  
60 0.6% 18%  
61 4% 17%  
62 13% 13%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 1.2% 100%  
55 1.1% 98.8%  
56 10% 98%  
57 45% 88% Median
58 4% 43%  
59 14% 39%  
60 9% 24%  
61 15% 15%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 1.0% 100%  
52 0% 99.0%  
53 1.1% 99.0%  
54 19% 98%  
55 3% 79%  
56 3% 76%  
57 13% 73% Median
58 58% 60% Last Result
59 0.9% 1.1%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 1.0% 100%  
51 0.9% 99.0%  
52 1.2% 98%  
53 21% 97%  
54 3% 76% Last Result
55 11% 73% Median
56 46% 62%  
57 15% 15%  
58 0.6% 0.8%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 1.2% 100%  
48 12% 98.8%  
49 9% 87%  
50 5% 79%  
51 12% 74% Median
52 46% 62% Last Result
53 15% 15%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 100%  
47 8% 99.8%  
48 20% 92%  
49 2% 72%  
50 19% 70%  
51 4% 50% Median
52 44% 46%  
53 0.2% 2%  
54 1.4% 1.4%  
55 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.9% 100%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 45% 98%  
39 1.0% 53% Median
40 12% 52%  
41 20% 40%  
42 11% 19%  
43 8% 8%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 3% 99.9%  
33 10% 97% Last Result, Median
34 63% 87%  
35 22% 24%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 2% 100%  
25 45% 98%  
26 5% 53% Median
27 4% 49%  
28 24% 45%  
29 14% 21%  
30 7% 7%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 3% 100%  
26 45% 97% Median
27 29% 52%  
28 22% 23% Last Result
29 0.4% 0.9%  
30 0.3% 0.5%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations