Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 11–12 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.6% 21.7–23.6% 21.4–23.9% 21.2–24.2% 20.7–24.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 18.6% 17.7–19.6% 17.5–19.8% 17.3–20.1% 16.9–20.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 33–36 33–36 33–37 32–38
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 27 27–30 27–31 26–31 26–32
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 15 13–15 13–15 11–16 11–16
Democraten 66 19 13 11–13 10–14 10–14 10–14
GroenLinks 14 12 10–12 10–12 10–14 9–14
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Code Oranje 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 63% 99.4% Last Result, Median
34 3% 37%  
35 18% 34%  
36 13% 16%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 1.0%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 3% 99.9%  
27 62% 97% Median
28 7% 35%  
29 10% 28%  
30 12% 17%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.7% 0.8%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 16% 98%  
16 14% 82%  
17 61% 69% Median
18 7% 8%  
19 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 4% 100%  
12 0.6% 96%  
13 12% 96%  
14 14% 84%  
15 67% 70% Median
16 3% 3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 8% 100%  
11 7% 92%  
12 13% 85%  
13 65% 72% Median
14 7% 7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 18% 99.4%  
11 13% 82%  
12 64% 69% Median
13 1.2% 5%  
14 3% 3% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.0% 100%  
8 14% 99.0%  
9 67% 85% Median
10 12% 17%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100% Last Result
6 62% 98.9% Median
7 30% 37%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 12% 99.9% Last Result
6 28% 88%  
7 60% 60% Median
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 17% 99.9% Last Result
4 78% 83% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100% Last Result
3 24% 99.9%  
4 69% 75% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 70% 100% Median
3 26% 30% Last Result
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 84% 85% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 85 100% 85–90 84–91 84–91 83–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 81–86 81–86 81–87 79–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 84 100% 82–85 81–86 81–86 80–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 81 100% 80–83 79–84 77–84 77–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 77 99.3% 77–82 77–83 77–83 75–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 69 0.1% 69–72 68–72 67–72 67–73
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 0% 67–72 66–72 66–72 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 65 0% 64–66 62–67 62–67 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 63 0% 62–64 61–65 60–65 59–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 61 0% 59–63 59–64 58–64 57–65
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 59–63 57–63 56–63 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 59 0% 58–61 58–61 57–61 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 57–60 57–60 57–61 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 55 0% 55–57 54–57 53–57 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 54 0% 54–56 53–56 53–57 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 50–52 49–53 49–53 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 48 0% 48–50 47–51 46–51 46–52
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 45 0% 41–45 40–45 39–45 39–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 38 0% 36–38 35–39 34–39 34–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 32 0% 28–32 28–32 27–32 27–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 30 0% 27–30 27–30 27–30 25–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 1.5% 99.9%  
84 5% 98%  
85 62% 94% Median
86 4% 32%  
87 10% 27%  
88 5% 18%  
89 1.4% 13%  
90 6% 12%  
91 5% 5%  
92 0.5% 0.5%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.9% 100%  
80 1.0% 99.0%  
81 63% 98% Median
82 9% 35%  
83 9% 27%  
84 1.2% 18%  
85 4% 16%  
86 7% 12%  
87 4% 5%  
88 0.6% 0.7%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.2% 100%  
80 0.7% 99.8%  
81 5% 99.1%  
82 7% 94%  
83 3% 87%  
84 66% 84% Median
85 9% 18% Last Result
86 7% 9%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 3% 100%  
78 2% 97%  
79 1.3% 95%  
80 13% 94%  
81 64% 81% Median
82 6% 17%  
83 5% 11%  
84 6% 6%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.7% 100%  
76 1.3% 99.3% Majority
77 59% 98% Median
78 8% 39%  
79 7% 31%  
80 8% 24%  
81 4% 17%  
82 5% 12%  
83 7% 8%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 5% 99.6%  
68 2% 95%  
69 63% 93% Median
70 16% 29%  
71 1.5% 13%  
72 10% 12%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.5% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.5%  
66 5% 99.3%  
67 8% 94%  
68 2% 86%  
69 8% 84%  
70 9% 76%  
71 8% 67%  
72 57% 59% Median
73 1.5% 2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
62 4% 99.2%  
63 3% 95%  
64 11% 92%  
65 65% 81% Median
66 6% 16%  
67 8% 10%  
68 1.5% 2%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.5% 100%  
60 4% 99.5%  
61 2% 96%  
62 6% 94%  
63 74% 88% Median
64 6% 14%  
65 6% 8%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.6% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.8%  
58 4% 99.3%  
59 13% 96%  
60 4% 82%  
61 59% 78% Last Result, Median
62 7% 19%  
63 5% 12%  
64 6% 7%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.4% 0.4%  
67 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 4% 99.5%  
57 1.1% 96%  
58 2% 95%  
59 10% 93%  
60 11% 82%  
61 9% 72%  
62 2% 63%  
63 59% 60% Median
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 1.4% 99.3%  
57 2% 98%  
58 15% 96%  
59 66% 81% Median
60 4% 15%  
61 9% 11% Last Result
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.6% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.4%  
56 1.4% 99.2%  
57 12% 98% Last Result
58 70% 85% Median
59 0.9% 15%  
60 11% 14%  
61 2% 3%  
62 1.0% 1.2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.4% 100%  
52 0.8% 99.5%  
53 3% 98.7%  
54 4% 96%  
55 77% 91% Median
56 4% 15%  
57 9% 11%  
58 1.1% 2% Last Result
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.4% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.6%  
52 0.7% 99.2%  
53 7% 98.5%  
54 73% 92% Last Result, Median
55 5% 19%  
56 11% 14%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.7% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.7% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.2%  
49 6% 98.9%  
50 61% 93% Median
51 21% 32%  
52 2% 11% Last Result
53 9% 10%  
54 0.8% 0.9%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.3% 100%  
46 4% 99.7%  
47 2% 96%  
48 68% 94% Median
49 14% 26%  
50 5% 13%  
51 5% 8%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.4% 100%  
39 4% 99.6%  
40 5% 95%  
41 7% 90%  
42 14% 83%  
43 7% 70%  
44 3% 62%  
45 58% 59% Median
46 0.8% 0.8%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.4% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
34 4% 99.6%  
35 3% 95%  
36 14% 93%  
37 8% 79%  
38 62% 71% Median
39 8% 9%  
40 0.2% 1.1%  
41 0.9% 0.9%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 4% 99.6%  
28 7% 96% Last Result
29 10% 89%  
30 6% 79%  
31 6% 73%  
32 66% 67% Median
33 0.9% 1.1%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.6%  
26 0.8% 98.9%  
27 14% 98%  
28 16% 84%  
29 7% 68%  
30 59% 61% Median
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations