Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 11–14 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 28.6% | 27.0–30.3% | 26.6–30.8% | 26.2–31.2% | 25.5–32.0% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 14.6% | 13.4–16.0% | 13.1–16.4% | 12.8–16.7% | 12.2–17.4% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 12.6% | 11.5–13.9% | 11.2–14.3% | 10.9–14.6% | 10.4–15.2% |
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 8.7% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.5–10.1% | 7.2–10.4% | 6.8–10.9% |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.5–10.1% | 7.2–10.4% | 6.8–10.9% |
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.8–9.3% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.2–10.1% |
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 6.0% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.4–7.9% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.6% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.0% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.0% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.2% |
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.5% |
| DENK | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 45 | 40–47 | 39–47 | 39–49 | 39–49 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 18–26 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| GroenLinks | 14 | 12 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 8–15 |
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 9 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 50Plus | 4 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK | 3 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 3% | 92% | |
| 41 | 2% | 90% | |
| 42 | 4% | 88% | |
| 43 | 21% | 84% | |
| 44 | 12% | 63% | |
| 45 | 32% | 51% | Median |
| 46 | 7% | 19% | |
| 47 | 8% | 12% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 49 | 4% | 4% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 6% | 100% | |
| 19 | 26% | 94% | |
| 20 | 8% | 68% | Last Result |
| 21 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 22 | 7% | 46% | |
| 23 | 33% | 40% | |
| 24 | 4% | 7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 17 | 3% | 96% | |
| 18 | 8% | 94% | |
| 19 | 27% | 86% | Last Result |
| 20 | 36% | 59% | Median |
| 21 | 7% | 23% | |
| 22 | 15% | 16% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 11 | 19% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 3% | 80% | |
| 13 | 48% | 77% | Median |
| 14 | 21% | 29% | |
| 15 | 8% | 8% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 12 | 16% | 93% | |
| 13 | 47% | 78% | Median |
| 14 | 21% | 31% | |
| 15 | 9% | 10% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 16% | 96% | |
| 11 | 9% | 79% | |
| 12 | 48% | 70% | Median |
| 13 | 11% | 22% | |
| 14 | 6% | 10% | Last Result |
| 15 | 4% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 8% | 93% | |
| 8 | 16% | 84% | |
| 9 | 31% | 68% | Median |
| 10 | 18% | 37% | |
| 11 | 17% | 19% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 14% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 86% | Last Result |
| 6 | 42% | 76% | Median |
| 7 | 26% | 34% | |
| 8 | 8% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 50% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 26% | 49% | |
| 5 | 20% | 23% | Last Result |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 23% | 98% | |
| 4 | 65% | 75% | Median |
| 5 | 10% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 47% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 49% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | |
| 1 | 77% | 78% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25% | 100% | |
| 1 | 74% | 75% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 85 | 97 | 100% | 91–99 | 91–99 | 91–100 | 89–101 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 90 | 95 | 100% | 89–100 | 89–100 | 89–100 | 88–100 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 91 | 100% | 90–94 | 89–95 | 89–96 | 87–97 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 88 | 100% | 88–91 | 87–92 | 86–93 | 84–95 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 72 | 85 | 100% | 84–87 | 84–88 | 82–89 | 81–91 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 76 | 84 | 99.9% | 77–86 | 77–87 | 77–87 | 77–87 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 77 | 81% | 74–79 | 74–79 | 73–81 | 72–82 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 71 | 78 | 77% | 73–79 | 73–80 | 72–80 | 71–82 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 80 | 73 | 21% | 70–76 | 69–77 | 68–77 | 66–77 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 71 | 2% | 67–74 | 67–74 | 66–75 | 64–78 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 72 | 0.6% | 68–73 | 68–73 | 65–74 | 65–76 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 71 | 0.5% | 67–72 | 67–72 | 65–74 | 64–75 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 69 | 0% | 66–70 | 65–71 | 63–72 | 62–73 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 54 | 68 | 0% | 65–70 | 65–70 | 62–71 | 62–73 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 66 | 64 | 0% | 60–67 | 59–69 | 59–69 | 57–69 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 64 | 0% | 61–66 | 61–66 | 59–67 | 58–69 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 58 | 0% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 52–61 | 52–64 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 47 | 46 | 0% | 44–49 | 42–50 | 41–50 | 40–50 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 33 | 39 | 0% | 37–42 | 36–42 | 34–42 | 34–42 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 38 | 33 | 0% | 30–36 | 30–37 | 29–37 | 28–37 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 28 | 33 | 0% | 32–35 | 30–35 | 28–36 | 27–36 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 91 | 12% | 98% | |
| 92 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 93 | 3% | 85% | |
| 94 | 4% | 82% | |
| 95 | 10% | 78% | |
| 96 | 15% | 69% | |
| 97 | 30% | 54% | Median |
| 98 | 9% | 24% | |
| 99 | 12% | 15% | |
| 100 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 101 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 89 | 12% | 99.5% | |
| 90 | 1.0% | 87% | Last Result |
| 91 | 4% | 86% | |
| 92 | 2% | 82% | |
| 93 | 15% | 80% | |
| 94 | 9% | 65% | |
| 95 | 7% | 56% | |
| 96 | 29% | 49% | Median |
| 97 | 3% | 21% | |
| 98 | 7% | 17% | |
| 99 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 100 | 10% | 10% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0% | 100% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 88 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 89 | 3% | 98% | |
| 90 | 21% | 95% | |
| 91 | 39% | 74% | |
| 92 | 12% | 34% | |
| 93 | 11% | 22% | Median |
| 94 | 5% | 11% | |
| 95 | 3% | 6% | |
| 96 | 2% | 3% | |
| 97 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 100% | |
| 80 | 0% | 100% | |
| 81 | 0% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 100% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 85 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 86 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 87 | 6% | 96% | |
| 88 | 43% | 90% | |
| 89 | 25% | 47% | |
| 90 | 7% | 22% | Median |
| 91 | 5% | 15% | |
| 92 | 5% | 10% | |
| 93 | 2% | 4% | |
| 94 | 2% | 2% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 82 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 83 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 84 | 44% | 96% | |
| 85 | 26% | 51% | |
| 86 | 4% | 26% | Median |
| 87 | 15% | 21% | |
| 88 | 2% | 6% | |
| 89 | 2% | 4% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 91 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result, Majority |
| 77 | 13% | 99.6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 87% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 80 | 2% | 84% | |
| 81 | 2% | 82% | |
| 82 | 5% | 80% | |
| 83 | 24% | 74% | |
| 84 | 32% | 51% | Median |
| 85 | 6% | 19% | |
| 86 | 6% | 13% | |
| 87 | 7% | 7% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 10% | 95% | |
| 75 | 4% | 85% | |
| 76 | 20% | 81% | Majority |
| 77 | 14% | 62% | |
| 78 | 30% | 48% | Median |
| 79 | 13% | 18% | |
| 80 | 2% | 5% | |
| 81 | 3% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 72 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 73 | 13% | 97% | |
| 74 | 4% | 84% | |
| 75 | 3% | 80% | |
| 76 | 11% | 77% | Majority |
| 77 | 14% | 66% | |
| 78 | 34% | 51% | Median |
| 79 | 12% | 17% | |
| 80 | 3% | 5% | |
| 81 | 2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 70 | 8% | 94% | |
| 71 | 22% | 86% | |
| 72 | 12% | 65% | |
| 73 | 27% | 53% | Median |
| 74 | 3% | 25% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 22% | |
| 76 | 12% | 21% | Majority |
| 77 | 9% | 10% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 67 | 14% | 96% | |
| 68 | 15% | 83% | |
| 69 | 14% | 68% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 55% | |
| 71 | 29% | 54% | Median |
| 72 | 6% | 24% | |
| 73 | 8% | 18% | |
| 74 | 6% | 11% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 2% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 68 | 9% | 96% | |
| 69 | 17% | 87% | |
| 70 | 9% | 70% | |
| 71 | 11% | 61% | |
| 72 | 16% | 50% | |
| 73 | 30% | 34% | Median |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 64 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 67 | 9% | 97% | |
| 68 | 14% | 88% | |
| 69 | 8% | 73% | |
| 70 | 15% | 65% | |
| 71 | 6% | 51% | |
| 72 | 40% | 44% | Median |
| 73 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 65 | 2% | 97% | |
| 66 | 11% | 94% | |
| 67 | 21% | 83% | |
| 68 | 5% | 63% | |
| 69 | 16% | 58% | |
| 70 | 36% | 42% | Median |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 64 | 2% | 97% | |
| 65 | 9% | 95% | |
| 66 | 19% | 86% | |
| 67 | 9% | 67% | |
| 68 | 16% | 58% | |
| 69 | 27% | 42% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 16% | |
| 71 | 2% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 60 | 15% | 94% | |
| 61 | 4% | 80% | |
| 62 | 7% | 76% | |
| 63 | 5% | 69% | |
| 64 | 31% | 64% | Median |
| 65 | 6% | 33% | |
| 66 | 11% | 27% | Last Result |
| 67 | 10% | 16% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 69 | 5% | 5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 61 | 8% | 96% | |
| 62 | 15% | 88% | |
| 63 | 7% | 73% | |
| 64 | 17% | 65% | |
| 65 | 37% | 48% | Median |
| 66 | 8% | 11% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 55 | 11% | 89% | |
| 56 | 11% | 78% | |
| 57 | 14% | 67% | |
| 58 | 33% | 53% | Median |
| 59 | 3% | 20% | |
| 60 | 7% | 17% | |
| 61 | 8% | 10% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 42 | 2% | 97% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 44 | 22% | 94% | |
| 45 | 10% | 72% | |
| 46 | 39% | 62% | Median |
| 47 | 3% | 23% | Last Result |
| 48 | 8% | 20% | |
| 49 | 5% | 12% | |
| 50 | 7% | 7% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 34 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 36 | 6% | 97% | |
| 37 | 19% | 91% | |
| 38 | 2% | 72% | |
| 39 | 40% | 70% | Median |
| 40 | 9% | 30% | |
| 41 | 8% | 21% | |
| 42 | 13% | 13% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 13% | 95% | |
| 31 | 12% | 82% | |
| 32 | 11% | 71% | |
| 33 | 39% | 60% | Median |
| 34 | 3% | 21% | |
| 35 | 4% | 18% | |
| 36 | 6% | 14% | |
| 37 | 8% | 8% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 98% | Last Result |
| 29 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 30 | 5% | 96% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 32 | 15% | 90% | |
| 33 | 53% | 75% | Median |
| 34 | 9% | 22% | |
| 35 | 10% | 13% | |
| 36 | 3% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–14 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1257
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.57%