Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 18–19 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.6% 21.7–23.6% 21.4–23.9% 21.2–24.2% 20.7–24.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 17.3% 16.4–18.2% 16.2–18.5% 16.0–18.7% 15.6–19.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.6% 11.9–13.4% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.1–14.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 37 34–38 32–38 32–38 32–39
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 26 26–27 26–27 26–28 25–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 19 18–20 18–20 18–20 18–21
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 13–14 12–14 12–14 11–14
Democraten 66 19 13 12–13 11–13 11–13 11–14
GroenLinks 14 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–11
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 4 4 3–4 3–5
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Code Oranje 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 5% 100%  
33 2% 95% Last Result
34 34% 93%  
35 1.3% 59%  
36 3% 58%  
37 14% 55% Median
38 40% 40%  
39 0.5% 0.5%  
40 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 48% 98% Median
27 46% 49%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 43% 99.6%  
19 34% 57% Last Result, Median
20 21% 23%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.7% 100%  
12 6% 99.3%  
13 78% 94% Median
14 15% 16%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 7% 99.8%  
12 41% 92%  
13 50% 51% Median
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 62% 99.7% Median
10 36% 38%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 18% 99.7%  
9 47% 82% Median
10 34% 35%  
11 1.4% 1.4%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 18% 99.9%  
7 36% 82% Median
8 42% 46%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 14% 100%  
5 1.2% 86% Last Result
6 83% 85% Median
7 1.4% 1.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 74% 99.8% Last Result, Median
4 24% 26%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 3% 100%  
4 96% 97% Median
5 1.4% 1.4%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 76% 100% Median
3 23% 24% Last Result
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100%  
1 66% 66% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 25% 57% Median
2 32% 32%  
3 0% 0%  

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 43%  
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 90 100% 86–91 86–91 86–91 86–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 89 100% 86–90 85–90 85–90 83–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 87 100% 83–87 83–87 83–87 82–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 85 100% 83–85 81–85 81–85 80–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 83 100% 79–83 79–83 79–83 78–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 76 55% 73–76 72–76 72–76 70–76
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 0% 69–72 69–72 68–72 66–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 69 0% 66–71 65–71 65–71 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 68 0% 66–70 64–70 63–70 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 64 0% 60–66 60–66 60–66 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 63 0% 60–65 60–65 60–65 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 63 0% 60–64 57–64 56–64 56–64
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 60–62 60–62 60–62 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 57–62 57–62 57–62 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 60 0% 57–61 56–61 56–61 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 56 0% 53–57 52–57 52–57 52–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 51 0% 47–51 45–51 45–51 44–51
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 45 0% 43–47 43–47 43–47 41–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 39 0% 39–40 39–42 38–42 36–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 32 0% 30–33 30–33 30–34 29–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 32 0% 31–34 31–34 30–34 30–35

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.4% 100%  
86 32% 99.6%  
87 6% 67%  
88 2% 61%  
89 3% 59% Median
90 40% 56%  
91 15% 16%  
92 0.1% 0.6%  
93 0.5% 0.5%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 2% 100%  
84 0.2% 98%  
85 6% 98% Last Result
86 34% 92%  
87 2% 58%  
88 2% 56%  
89 40% 54% Median
90 14% 14%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.4% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 39% 99.4%  
84 2% 61%  
85 2% 58%  
86 2% 57% Median
87 54% 55%  
88 0.4% 0.6%  
89 0% 0.2%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.7% 99.9%  
81 6% 99.2%  
82 0.7% 93%  
83 35% 92%  
84 0.7% 58%  
85 55% 57% Median
86 1.5% 2%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.7% 99.7%  
79 38% 99.1%  
80 2% 61%  
81 1.3% 59%  
82 2% 58% Median
83 54% 55%  
84 0.6% 0.8%  
85 0% 0.2%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.8% 100%  
71 1.3% 99.2%  
72 5% 98%  
73 35% 93%  
74 0.7% 58%  
75 2% 57%  
76 55% 55% Last Result, Median, Majority
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.8% 100%  
67 0% 99.2%  
68 2% 99.2%  
69 41% 97%  
70 16% 56% Median
71 6% 40%  
72 32% 34%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 1.0% 100%  
65 6% 98.9%  
66 34% 93%  
67 1.5% 58%  
68 2% 57%  
69 40% 55% Median
70 1.0% 15%  
71 14% 14%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 5% 100%  
64 0.9% 95%  
65 3% 94%  
66 33% 92%  
67 2% 59%  
68 40% 57%  
69 2% 16% Median
70 14% 14%  
71 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 33% 100%  
61 6% 67% Last Result
62 3% 62%  
63 3% 59%  
64 40% 55% Median
65 0.2% 16%  
66 15% 16%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.4% 100%  
60 38% 99.5%  
61 2% 62%  
62 4% 60%  
63 40% 56% Median
64 0.2% 16%  
65 15% 16%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 5% 100%  
57 0.8% 95%  
58 0.9% 94%  
59 3% 93%  
60 34% 90%  
61 1.1% 57% Last Result
62 2% 56%  
63 40% 54% Median
64 14% 14%  
65 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 1.3% 100%  
58 0.8% 98.7%  
59 0.2% 98%  
60 41% 98%  
61 3% 57% Median
62 52% 54%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.5% 100%  
57 38% 99.4%  
58 3% 61% Last Result
59 2% 58%  
60 1.3% 57%  
61 40% 55% Median
62 15% 15%  
63 0.5% 0.6%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0.3% 100%  
56 6% 99.7%  
57 34% 93%  
58 3% 59%  
59 1.4% 57%  
60 39% 55% Median
61 15% 16%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 6% 99.7% Last Result
53 33% 93%  
54 4% 61%  
55 1.2% 56%  
56 40% 55% Median
57 14% 15%  
58 1.0% 1.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0.7% 100%  
45 5% 99.3%  
46 3% 94%  
47 34% 92%  
48 2% 58%  
49 1.1% 56%  
50 0.7% 55% Median
51 54% 54%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 2% 100%  
42 0.6% 98%  
43 41% 98%  
44 6% 57%  
45 34% 51% Median
46 2% 17%  
47 14% 15% Last Result
48 0.5% 0.6%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 1.2% 99.9%  
37 0.9% 98.7%  
38 2% 98%  
39 74% 95% Median
40 15% 22%  
41 1.0% 6%  
42 5% 5%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 1.4% 99.7%  
30 40% 98%  
31 8% 58%  
32 33% 51% Median
33 15% 18%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 2% 99.9%  
31 41% 97%  
32 35% 57% Median
33 6% 21%  
34 15% 16%  
35 0.8% 0.8%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations