Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 18–21 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 27.9% 26.3–29.6% 25.8–30.0% 25.4–30.4% 24.7–31.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.1% 11.0–13.4% 10.7–13.7% 10.4–14.1% 9.9–14.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.9% 9.8–12.1% 9.5–12.5% 9.3–12.8% 8.8–13.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.9% 8.8–11.0% 8.6–11.4% 8.3–11.6% 7.8–12.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 9.4% 8.4–10.5% 8.1–10.8% 7.9–11.1% 7.4–11.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 6.8% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.1% 5.5–8.3% 5.1–8.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 6.6% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9% 5.4–8.2% 5.0–8.7%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.8% 5.0–6.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.6–7.3% 4.3–7.7%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.8% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.6–5.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.9% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.6% 1.2–2.8% 1.1–3.1%
DENK 2.1% 1.4% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1% 0.9–2.2% 0.7–2.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 1.4% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1% 0.9–2.2% 0.7–2.5%
50Plus 3.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 42 41–45 40–46 40–47 39–49
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 17–20 16–20 16–20 15–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–18 15–18 14–19 13–20
Democraten 66 19 14 14–19 13–19 13–19 12–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 12–16 12–16 12–16 11–17
GroenLinks 14 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
ChristenUnie 5 9 8–11 8–11 8–12 7–13
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–8 5–8 4–8 4–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Forum voor Democratie 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 0–3
50Plus 4 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 4% 99.0%  
41 36% 95%  
42 27% 59% Median
43 5% 32%  
44 14% 27%  
45 3% 13%  
46 5% 10%  
47 3% 5%  
48 0.2% 2%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 5% 99.2%  
17 6% 94%  
18 26% 88%  
19 6% 62%  
20 55% 56% Last Result, Median
21 0.9% 2%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 3% 99.4%  
15 22% 97%  
16 21% 75%  
17 41% 54% Median
18 9% 13%  
19 2% 4% Last Result
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.9%  
13 7% 98%  
14 43% 92% Median
15 20% 48%  
16 5% 29%  
17 2% 24%  
18 0.3% 22%  
19 22% 22% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 1.3% 100%  
12 28% 98.7%  
13 3% 71%  
14 22% 68% Median
15 20% 46%  
16 25% 26%  
17 0.4% 0.7%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.7% 99.8%  
9 22% 99.1%  
10 7% 77%  
11 43% 70% Median
12 26% 27%  
13 1.2% 1.2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.2% 100%  
7 0.9% 99.8%  
8 18% 98.9%  
9 37% 81% Median
10 6% 44%  
11 34% 38%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.9% 0.9%  
14 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 7% 99.9%  
8 10% 93%  
9 60% 83% Median
10 22% 23%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 4% 99.8%  
5 29% 96% Last Result
6 43% 67% Median
7 4% 24%  
8 19% 19%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 47% 96% Median
3 48% 50% Last Result
4 2% 2%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 63% 100% Median
2 34% 37%  
3 3% 3% Last Result
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 41% 99.4%  
2 42% 58% Last Result, Median
3 16% 16%  
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 38% 56% Median
2 16% 18%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100% Last Result
1 67% 73% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 97 100% 96–100 96–101 96–103 94–105
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 95 100% 92–96 92–99 92–99 90–101
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 84 100% 81–86 81–88 81–89 80–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie 77 82 99.8% 79–86 79–87 79–88 77–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 79 98% 77–84 77–85 76–85 74–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 77 97% 76–81 76–83 75–83 72–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 75 13% 72–77 72–78 72–79 70–81
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij 80 76 54% 71–79 71–79 69–79 68–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 72 4% 71–72 69–74 69–76 68–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 75 9% 68–75 68–76 68–76 68–82
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 62–70 62–70 61–70 60–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 61 64 0% 60–68 60–69 60–69 60–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie 57 64 0% 59–67 59–68 59–68 59–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 58–66 58–66 58–67 58–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 61 0% 57–64 57–65 57–66 57–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 59 0% 56–62 56–63 56–64 55–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 58 0% 53–58 53–59 53–61 52–64
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 46 0% 44–47 43–47 43–50 40–51
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 40 0% 36–44 36–44 36–45 36–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 31–34 30–34 29–36 28–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 31 0% 27–33 27–33 27–33 25–35

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.3% 99.9%  
94 0.8% 99.6%  
95 0.4% 98.8%  
96 38% 98% Median
97 17% 60%  
98 4% 43%  
99 0.9% 40%  
100 33% 39%  
101 2% 6%  
102 2% 4%  
103 0.1% 3%  
104 0.9% 2%  
105 1.2% 2%  
106 0% 0.4%  
107 0.3% 0.3%  
108 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
91 0.6% 99.2%  
92 32% 98.6%  
93 1.4% 67% Median
94 2% 66%  
95 26% 64%  
96 28% 38%  
97 2% 10%  
98 2% 8%  
99 4% 6%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 1.2% 1.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 1.3% 99.6%  
81 17% 98%  
82 1.5% 81% Median
83 15% 80%  
84 45% 65%  
85 2% 20%  
86 9% 18%  
87 2% 9%  
88 5% 8%  
89 1.1% 3%  
90 0.4% 2%  
91 1.2% 1.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0% 99.8% Majority
77 2% 99.8% Last Result
78 0.6% 98%  
79 21% 98%  
80 5% 77%  
81 16% 72%  
82 27% 56%  
83 3% 29% Median
84 3% 26%  
85 1.1% 23%  
86 14% 22%  
87 6% 8%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
75 1.1% 99.1%  
76 0.8% 98% Majority
77 21% 97%  
78 17% 77%  
79 29% 59%  
80 5% 30%  
81 2% 26% Median
82 0.4% 23%  
83 0.9% 23%  
84 15% 22%  
85 7% 7%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
73 1.4% 99.5%  
74 0.5% 98%  
75 0.7% 98%  
76 22% 97% Majority
77 44% 75%  
78 5% 31%  
79 2% 26% Median
80 0.4% 24%  
81 15% 23%  
82 0.5% 9%  
83 8% 8%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 2% 99.3% Last Result
72 18% 98%  
73 26% 80% Median
74 2% 54%  
75 39% 52%  
76 2% 13% Majority
77 4% 11%  
78 4% 7%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0% 1.4%  
81 1.3% 1.4%  
82 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie – Socialistische Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 2% 100%  
69 0.8% 98%  
70 0.4% 97%  
71 16% 96%  
72 5% 81%  
73 2% 76%  
74 2% 74% Median
75 19% 72%  
76 25% 54% Majority
77 3% 29%  
78 0.3% 26%  
79 25% 26%  
80 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 1.4% 99.5%  
69 3% 98%  
70 2% 95% Median
71 24% 93%  
72 60% 70%  
73 0.7% 10%  
74 5% 9%  
75 0.3% 4%  
76 1.4% 4% Majority
77 0% 2%  
78 2% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.4%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 100%  
68 21% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 79%  
70 2% 79%  
71 2% 77%  
72 18% 75%  
73 1.3% 58% Median
74 0.7% 56%  
75 47% 56%  
76 7% 9% Majority
77 0.5% 2%  
78 0.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.4%  
80 0.1% 0.9%  
81 0% 0.8%  
82 0.8% 0.8%  
83 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 2% 100%  
61 1.1% 98%  
62 14% 96%  
63 3% 83%  
64 3% 80%  
65 5% 77% Median
66 37% 72% Last Result
67 6% 35%  
68 1.3% 29%  
69 0.5% 28%  
70 26% 28%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 20% 99.8%  
61 17% 79% Last Result
62 0.3% 62%  
63 2% 62%  
64 27% 60% Median
65 5% 33%  
66 2% 28%  
67 0.5% 26%  
68 19% 25%  
69 5% 7%  
70 0.1% 1.2%  
71 1.0% 1.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 21% 99.6%  
60 2% 79%  
61 16% 78%  
62 1.2% 61%  
63 3% 60% Median
64 30% 57%  
65 1.2% 27%  
66 16% 26%  
67 3% 10%  
68 6% 7%  
69 0.1% 1.1%  
70 0.2% 1.1%  
71 0.9% 0.9%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 36% 99.7% Last Result
59 2% 64%  
60 0.6% 62%  
61 26% 61%  
62 3% 35% Median
63 1.5% 32%  
64 6% 31%  
65 4% 25%  
66 16% 21%  
67 4% 5%  
68 1.0% 1.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 21% 99.5%  
58 17% 79%  
59 1.2% 62%  
60 1.5% 61%  
61 27% 59% Median
62 2% 32%  
63 7% 30%  
64 15% 23%  
65 3% 8%  
66 4% 5%  
67 0.2% 1.1%  
68 0.8% 0.9%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 23% 99.4%  
57 17% 77%  
58 0.9% 60%  
59 25% 59% Median
60 4% 34%  
61 20% 31%  
62 2% 10%  
63 3% 8%  
64 4% 5%  
65 0.2% 1.1%  
66 0.1% 0.9%  
67 0.8% 0.8%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.5% 99.8%  
53 21% 99.3%  
54 2% 78%  
55 4% 77%  
56 18% 73% Median
57 5% 55%  
58 42% 50%  
59 4% 8%  
60 0.8% 4%  
61 1.2% 3%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.2%  
64 0.9% 0.9%  
65 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 1.0% 100%  
41 0.5% 98.9%  
42 0.5% 98%  
43 8% 98%  
44 3% 90%  
45 16% 88% Median
46 43% 72%  
47 25% 30% Last Result
48 0.4% 4%  
49 0.6% 4%  
50 2% 3%  
51 1.4% 1.5%  
52 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 25% 99.9%  
37 1.0% 75%  
38 3% 74%  
39 14% 72%  
40 16% 57% Median
41 7% 41%  
42 2% 34%  
43 5% 33%  
44 24% 28%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.2% 1.5%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.8%  
29 2% 98%  
30 3% 96%  
31 61% 93% Median
32 7% 33%  
33 0.8% 26%  
34 21% 25%  
35 1.2% 4%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 1.0% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.0%  
27 22% 98.8%  
28 4% 77% Last Result
29 0.5% 73%  
30 7% 73%  
31 31% 66% Median
32 5% 35%  
33 27% 30%  
34 0.6% 2%  
35 1.5% 1.5%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations