Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 1–2 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.7–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 16.6% 15.8–17.5% 15.5–17.8% 15.3–18.0% 14.9–18.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Bij1 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 34 32–35 32–36 31–37 31–38
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 26 25–28 24–29 24–29 22–29
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 18 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–21
Democraten 66 19 13 12–14 12–15 11–15 11–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–14
GroenLinks 14 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–12
Socialistische Partij 14 10 8–11 7–11 7–11 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 4–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Bij1 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Code Oranje 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 3% 99.9%  
32 18% 97%  
33 24% 79% Last Result
34 43% 54% Median
35 5% 11%  
36 3% 6%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.5% 100%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 6% 98%  
25 12% 91%  
26 40% 79% Median
27 28% 39%  
28 6% 11%  
29 5% 6%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 34% 98%  
18 45% 64% Median
19 2% 19% Last Result
20 10% 17%  
21 8% 8%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 5% 99.8%  
12 23% 95%  
13 30% 72% Median
14 33% 42%  
15 9% 10%  
16 0.7% 0.7%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 2% 99.9%  
11 46% 98%  
12 37% 52% Median
13 7% 15%  
14 7% 8%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 31% 98%  
10 9% 67%  
11 32% 58% Median
12 26% 26%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 5% 100%  
8 16% 95%  
9 21% 78%  
10 33% 58% Median
11 24% 24%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 16% 100%  
7 37% 84% Median
8 34% 47%  
9 13% 13%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 14% 96% Last Result
6 43% 82% Median
7 39% 39%  
8 0.6% 0.7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.6% 100%  
3 56% 99.4% Last Result, Median
4 40% 43%  
5 2% 3%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.9% 100% Last Result
3 25% 99.1%  
4 59% 74% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 29% 99.9%  
3 69% 71% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 29% 100%  
2 60% 71% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100%  
1 68% 69% Median
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 55% 55% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 48% 48%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 85 100% 83–88 83–89 83–89 82–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 84 100% 81–88 81–89 81–89 81–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 82 100% 80–85 80–85 80–86 79–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 80–84 80–85 79–86 78–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 77 96% 76–79 76–81 75–82 74–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 73 5% 70–75 70–75 69–76 69–77
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 0.5% 69–72 68–72 66–74 66–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 65 0% 63–68 62–68 61–69 61–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 63 0% 61–66 60–69 60–69 60–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 60 0% 57–62 57–65 57–65 56–65
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 58–64 58–64 58–64 58–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 57–62 57–64 56–64 55–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 59 0% 56–61 56–62 56–63 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 56 0% 54–58 54–61 53–61 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 54–58 53–60 52–60 52–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 51 0% 50–54 49–55 49–55 48–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 45 0% 43–48 43–48 43–49 42–50
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 41–45 41–48 39–48 39–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 37 0% 36–40 36–42 35–42 34–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 28–32 28–35 28–35 27–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 30–34 29–34 28–34 28–36

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.3% 99.9%  
82 1.0% 99.7%  
83 15% 98.7%  
84 27% 83%  
85 16% 56% Median
86 24% 40%  
87 3% 16%  
88 7% 13%  
89 5% 6%  
90 0.1% 0.6%  
91 0% 0.6%  
92 0% 0.6%  
93 0.6% 0.6%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 24% 99.9%  
82 6% 76%  
83 14% 69%  
84 10% 55% Median
85 28% 46% Last Result
86 5% 17%  
87 2% 13%  
88 3% 10%  
89 6% 7%  
90 1.1% 1.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 1.0% 100%  
80 15% 98.9%  
81 7% 84%  
82 35% 77%  
83 2% 42% Median
84 19% 40%  
85 17% 21%  
86 2% 4%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.7%  
89 0.4% 0.4%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.3% 100%  
78 0.5% 99.7%  
79 4% 99.2%  
80 19% 95%  
81 36% 77%  
82 8% 41% Median
83 20% 33%  
84 6% 13%  
85 4% 7%  
86 3% 3%  
87 0% 0.6%  
88 0% 0.6%  
89 0.6% 0.6%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 100%  
74 1.0% 99.9%  
75 3% 98.9%  
76 13% 96% Majority
77 35% 83%  
78 13% 47% Median
79 25% 35%  
80 1.3% 9%  
81 4% 8%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0% 0.6%  
84 0% 0.6%  
85 0.6% 0.6%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 3% 99.8%  
70 25% 97%  
71 18% 72%  
72 2% 55% Median
73 28% 52%  
74 10% 24%  
75 10% 14%  
76 3% 5% Last Result, Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.3% 100%  
66 3% 99.7%  
67 2% 97%  
68 1.3% 96%  
69 24% 94%  
70 22% 70%  
71 18% 49% Median
72 27% 31%  
73 1.0% 4%  
74 1.0% 3%  
75 1.3% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.5% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 3% 99.6%  
62 4% 97%  
63 25% 93%  
64 8% 68%  
65 32% 60% Median
66 14% 29%  
67 3% 15%  
68 9% 12%  
69 3% 3%  
70 0.6% 0.6%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 5% 99.5%  
61 7% 94% Last Result
62 25% 88%  
63 29% 63%  
64 14% 33% Median
65 6% 20%  
66 5% 13%  
67 2% 8%  
68 0.8% 6%  
69 5% 6%  
70 0.6% 0.6%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.9%  
57 14% 99.3%  
58 12% 85%  
59 23% 73%  
60 30% 50% Median
61 4% 20% Last Result
62 9% 15%  
63 0.8% 7%  
64 0.3% 6%  
65 6% 6%  
66 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.7%  
58 14% 99.6%  
59 6% 85%  
60 36% 79%  
61 2% 43% Median
62 18% 41%  
63 8% 23%  
64 13% 16%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 1.3% 2% Last Result
67 0.4% 0.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.6% 100%  
56 2% 99.4%  
57 22% 97% Last Result
58 23% 75%  
59 25% 52% Median
60 10% 27%  
61 6% 17%  
62 5% 11%  
63 0.8% 6%  
64 5% 6%  
65 0.6% 0.6%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 27% 99.7%  
57 12% 73%  
58 8% 61%  
59 18% 52% Median
60 21% 34%  
61 7% 13% Last Result
62 3% 6%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 1.4% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.4%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 3% 99.8%  
54 19% 97%  
55 7% 78%  
56 37% 71%  
57 18% 34% Median
58 7% 16% Last Result
59 3% 9%  
60 0.2% 6%  
61 5% 6%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 3% 99.9%  
53 6% 97%  
54 20% 91% Last Result
55 30% 71%  
56 21% 41% Median
57 9% 20%  
58 3% 11%  
59 3% 8%  
60 5% 6%  
61 0.6% 0.6%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 2% 99.9%  
49 6% 98%  
50 6% 91%  
51 43% 85%  
52 24% 42% Last Result, Median
53 5% 18%  
54 4% 13%  
55 9% 9%  
56 0.1% 0.7%  
57 0.6% 0.6%  
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.8% 100% Last Result
43 17% 99.2%  
44 23% 82%  
45 10% 59%  
46 32% 49% Median
47 5% 17%  
48 9% 12%  
49 0.9% 3%  
50 1.5% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.5%  
52 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 3% 100%  
40 2% 97%  
41 20% 95%  
42 6% 75%  
43 46% 69% Median
44 5% 23%  
45 9% 18%  
46 2% 9%  
47 2% 7% Last Result
48 6% 6%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.7% 100%  
35 3% 99.3%  
36 40% 97%  
37 32% 57% Median
38 5% 25%  
39 9% 20%  
40 3% 11%  
41 0.5% 8%  
42 7% 7%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.8% 100%  
28 10% 99.2% Last Result
29 47% 89%  
30 22% 42% Median
31 9% 19%  
32 2% 11%  
33 1.3% 8%  
34 2% 7%  
35 5% 5%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 4% 99.8%  
29 0.7% 95%  
30 24% 95%  
31 39% 70% Median
32 14% 31%  
33 1.5% 17%  
34 15% 16%  
35 0.3% 1.1%  
36 0.6% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations