Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 8–11 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 28.6% 27.5–29.9% 27.1–30.2% 26.8–30.5% 26.3–31.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.3% 12.4–14.3% 12.2–14.5% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.0% 11.2–12.9% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.4% 10.3–13.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.2–10.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.2–10.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.7–8.1% 6.5–8.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.0–8.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.6% 6.0–7.3% 5.8–7.5% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.1%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.3% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.3% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 47 43–49 43–49 42–49 40–49
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 18–21 18–21 18–22 18–23
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 18 17–21 17–21 17–21 17–21
Democraten 66 19 12 12–13 12–14 12–14 11–16
GroenLinks 14 13 12–14 12–14 12–15 11–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 10–12 10–12 9–13 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 9 9–10 9–11 9–11 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
50Plus 4 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
DENK 3 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 1.2% 98%  
43 29% 96%  
44 2% 67%  
45 8% 65%  
46 3% 57%  
47 20% 55% Median
48 0.1% 35%  
49 35% 35%  
50 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 23% 99.9%  
19 39% 77% Median
20 7% 38% Last Result
21 28% 31%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.4% 0.6%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 20% 99.6%  
18 42% 79% Median
19 7% 37% Last Result
20 3% 30%  
21 27% 27%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.0% 99.9%  
12 66% 98.9% Median
13 26% 33%  
14 5% 7%  
15 0.5% 2%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 29% 98%  
13 43% 69% Median
14 23% 26% Last Result
15 2% 3%  
16 0.8% 0.8%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 3% 100% Last Result
10 25% 97%  
11 6% 72%  
12 63% 66% Median
13 3% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.0% 100%  
9 68% 99.0% Median
10 25% 31%  
11 4% 5%  
12 1.2% 1.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100% Last Result
6 42% 97%  
7 24% 55% Median
8 28% 31%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 7% 99.8%  
4 86% 93% Median
5 7% 7% Last Result
6 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100% Last Result
3 38% 99.7%  
4 59% 61% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 69% 99.7% Median
3 26% 31% Last Result
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 34% 99.8%  
2 65% 66% Median
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 94% 95% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 98 100% 96–98 93–98 93–99 92–100
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 96 100% 94–97 92–97 91–97 90–97
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 91 100% 89–91 87–91 86–92 85–94
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 89 100% 86–89 85–89 83–89 82–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 84 100% 83–85 81–85 80–86 78–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 85 100% 82–86 81–86 80–86 78–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 77 91% 76–79 75–79 73–79 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 76 64% 73–79 73–79 72–79 71–79
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 71 2% 70–74 70–74 70–75 68–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 72 0% 70–73 69–73 67–73 66–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 70 0% 67–73 67–73 67–73 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 71 0% 69–72 68–72 66–72 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 69 0% 68–71 67–71 63–71 63–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 68 0% 67–70 66–70 63–70 63–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 64 0% 63–67 62–67 59–67 59–67
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 61–65 61–65 61–66 59–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 57 0% 55–61 54–61 54–61 51–61
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 40–45 40–45 40–45 40–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 34–41 34–41 34–41 33–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 30 0% 30–33 30–33 30–34 29–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 30 0% 27–33 27–33 27–33 27–33

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100% Last Result
91 0.4% 99.9%  
92 0.9% 99.6%  
93 4% 98.7%  
94 2% 95%  
95 2% 93%  
96 27% 91%  
97 3% 64% Median
98 58% 61%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.9% 1.0%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.7% 99.9%  
91 3% 99.2%  
92 3% 96%  
93 2% 93%  
94 23% 91%  
95 6% 69%  
96 27% 62% Median
97 35% 36%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 2% 99.9%  
86 0.6% 98%  
87 3% 97%  
88 0.8% 94%  
89 20% 93%  
90 5% 73% Median
91 64% 68%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.6% 1.4%  
94 0.7% 0.7%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 2% 100%  
83 0.5% 98%  
84 0.3% 97%  
85 4% 97%  
86 22% 93%  
87 0.8% 72%  
88 7% 71% Median
89 63% 64%  
90 1.0% 1.2%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0.5% 100%  
79 2% 99.4%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 95%  
82 1.0% 92%  
83 3% 91%  
84 47% 88% Median
85 38% 42%  
86 3% 3%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 2% 100%  
79 0.5% 98%  
80 0.7% 98%  
81 4% 97%  
82 22% 93%  
83 2% 72%  
84 4% 70% Median
85 29% 65%  
86 36% 36%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 2% 99.1%  
74 2% 97%  
75 4% 95%  
76 31% 91% Majority
77 20% 61% Median
78 2% 40%  
79 36% 38%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.6%  
72 2% 98%  
73 7% 95%  
74 22% 88%  
75 2% 66%  
76 27% 64% Majority
77 2% 37% Median
78 0.7% 35%  
79 35% 35%  
80 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.7% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.1%  
70 37% 98.8%  
71 21% 61% Median
72 5% 41%  
73 3% 35%  
74 30% 32%  
75 0.6% 3%  
76 2% 2% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 2% 99.9%  
67 0.8% 98%  
68 0.7% 97%  
69 2% 96%  
70 4% 94%  
71 29% 90%  
72 21% 60% Median
73 39% 39%  
74 0.2% 0.8%  
75 0.5% 0.5%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.9% 99.6%  
66 0.6% 98.8%  
67 30% 98%  
68 7% 68%  
69 3% 61%  
70 23% 58%  
71 0.2% 35% Median
72 0.2% 35%  
73 35% 35%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.5%  
67 0.6% 97%  
68 2% 97%  
69 5% 95%  
70 29% 90%  
71 21% 61% Median
72 39% 40%  
73 0.3% 0.8%  
74 0% 0.5%  
75 0.5% 0.5%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 2% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 97%  
65 0.4% 97%  
66 0.7% 97%  
67 4% 96%  
68 5% 91%  
69 49% 86%  
70 0.7% 38% Median
71 37% 37%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 3% 99.5%  
64 0.4% 97%  
65 0.8% 97%  
66 3% 96%  
67 5% 93%  
68 49% 87%  
69 0.7% 38% Median
70 36% 37%  
71 0.5% 0.5%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 3% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 97%  
61 0.9% 97%  
62 3% 96%  
63 6% 93%  
64 49% 87%  
65 0.8% 38% Median
66 2% 37%  
67 35% 35%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 1.0% 99.7%  
60 0.5% 98.7%  
61 58% 98%  
62 3% 40% Median
63 6% 37%  
64 2% 31%  
65 26% 29%  
66 2% 3% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0.6% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.4%  
53 1.3% 99.0%  
54 7% 98%  
55 31% 91%  
56 3% 60%  
57 23% 58%  
58 0.4% 35%  
59 0.1% 35% Median
60 0.1% 35%  
61 35% 35%  
62 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 20% 99.8%  
41 5% 79%  
42 36% 74% Median
43 6% 39%  
44 4% 33%  
45 28% 29%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
34 22% 99.5%  
35 3% 77%  
36 39% 74%  
37 6% 36% Median
38 3% 30%  
39 0.9% 27%  
40 0.3% 26%  
41 26% 26%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.8%  
30 56% 99.2% Median
31 5% 43%  
32 6% 38%  
33 28% 31%  
34 1.3% 3%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 20% 99.8%  
28 6% 80% Last Result
29 2% 73%  
30 38% 71% Median
31 5% 33%  
32 2% 28%  
33 26% 26%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations