Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 22–25 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 28.0% 26.7–29.2% 26.4–29.6% 26.1–29.9% 25.6–30.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.6% 11.8–13.6% 11.5–13.9% 11.3–14.1% 10.9–14.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.5–12.2% 10.3–12.5% 10.1–12.7% 9.7–13.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.6–10.2% 8.4–10.4% 8.2–10.6% 7.8–11.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.6% 7.9–9.5% 7.7–9.7% 7.5–9.9% 7.2–10.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.0–8.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 2.6% 2.3–3.1% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.7%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.6% 2.3–3.1% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.7%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 44 40–45 40–46 40–46 39–48
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 17–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 18 16–19 16–20 15–20 15–20
Democraten 66 19 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 11–18
GroenLinks 14 12 11–14 11–15 11–15 11–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 9–15
Socialistische Partij 14 11 10–12 10–13 9–13 8–14
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
DENK 3 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.9% 100%  
40 15% 99.1%  
41 3% 84%  
42 7% 81%  
43 7% 74%  
44 36% 67% Median
45 23% 31%  
46 6% 8%  
47 1.0% 2%  
48 0.9% 0.9%  
49 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.9%  
17 11% 98.9%  
18 11% 88%  
19 15% 76%  
20 35% 62% Last Result, Median
21 24% 26%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 4% 99.8%  
16 22% 96%  
17 16% 74%  
18 16% 58% Median
19 35% 42% Last Result
20 7% 7%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 4% 99.4%  
13 29% 96%  
14 36% 67% Median
15 23% 30%  
16 5% 7%  
17 1.1% 2%  
18 0.5% 0.5%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 26% 99.7%  
12 26% 74% Median
13 34% 48%  
14 6% 13% Last Result
15 7% 7%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100% Last Result
10 19% 98%  
11 21% 79%  
12 42% 57% Median
13 9% 15%  
14 5% 6%  
15 1.1% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 3% 99.4%  
10 31% 96%  
11 36% 65% Median
12 24% 30%  
13 5% 6%  
14 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 6% 100% Last Result
6 26% 94%  
7 55% 68% Median
8 10% 13%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 59% 99.3% Median
4 28% 40%  
5 12% 12% Last Result
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.5% 100% Last Result
3 43% 99.5%  
4 26% 56% Median
5 30% 30%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 46% 99.8%  
3 34% 54% Last Result, Median
4 19% 19%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 41% 100%  
2 52% 59% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 81% 82% Median
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 70% 78% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 95 100% 92–98 91–98 91–99 90–99
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 94 100% 91–97 90–97 90–97 88–98
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 87 100% 84–90 83–90 83–90 82–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 85 100% 82–87 81–87 80–87 80–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 82 99.7% 79–84 79–85 78–85 77–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 81 99.7% 77–84 77–84 76–84 76–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 75 46% 72–78 71–79 71–79 70–80
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 73 16% 70–77 70–77 70–78 69–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 73 11% 70–76 69–77 68–77 67–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 69 0.1% 66–72 66–72 65–73 64–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 70 0% 66–71 66–71 64–71 63–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 69 0% 65–70 65–70 63–70 62–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 66 0% 63–68 63–68 61–68 60–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 65 0% 62–67 62–67 61–67 59–69
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 59–66 59–66 59–66 57–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 61 0% 58–64 57–64 57–64 55–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 55 0% 52–57 52–58 51–59 51–60
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 41–46 41–47 41–47 39–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 34–38 34–39 33–40 32–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 32 0% 30–34 30–35 29–35 27–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 27–32 27–32 26–33 25–34

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.3% 100%  
90 2% 99.7% Last Result
91 5% 98%  
92 25% 93%  
93 4% 68%  
94 12% 65%  
95 14% 53% Median
96 21% 39%  
97 7% 18%  
98 8% 11%  
99 3% 3%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.6% 100%  
89 0.7% 99.3%  
90 6% 98.7%  
91 12% 93%  
92 16% 81%  
93 11% 64%  
94 21% 54%  
95 9% 33% Median
96 11% 24%  
97 12% 13%  
98 0.7% 0.9%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.4% 99.8%  
83 5% 99.4%  
84 11% 95%  
85 7% 83%  
86 6% 76%  
87 24% 70%  
88 4% 46%  
89 19% 43% Median
90 23% 24%  
91 0.5% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 5% 99.7%  
81 5% 95%  
82 15% 90%  
83 4% 75%  
84 11% 71%  
85 18% 61%  
86 15% 43% Median
87 28% 28%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.3% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.7% Last Result, Majority
77 0.4% 99.6%  
78 4% 99.2%  
79 16% 95%  
80 3% 79%  
81 25% 77%  
82 4% 51%  
83 4% 48% Median
84 33% 43%  
85 8% 10%  
86 2% 2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 4% 99.7% Majority
77 16% 96%  
78 4% 80%  
79 4% 76%  
80 5% 72%  
81 25% 66%  
82 13% 42% Median
83 10% 29%  
84 18% 18%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.4% 100%  
70 2% 99.6%  
71 4% 98% Last Result
72 12% 94%  
73 3% 81%  
74 26% 79%  
75 7% 53%  
76 1.4% 46% Median, Majority
77 20% 44%  
78 18% 24%  
79 6% 7%  
80 0.5% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.6% 99.9%  
70 14% 99.3%  
71 0.5% 85%  
72 10% 85%  
73 31% 75%  
74 10% 44% Median
75 18% 34%  
76 5% 16% Majority
77 8% 11%  
78 0.9% 3%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 2% 99.9%  
68 3% 98%  
69 2% 95%  
70 12% 93%  
71 17% 82%  
72 7% 64%  
73 12% 58%  
74 20% 46% Median
75 15% 26%  
76 6% 11% Majority
77 5% 5%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 100%  
64 1.1% 99.9%  
65 3% 98.8%  
66 11% 96%  
67 3% 85%  
68 24% 83%  
69 25% 59%  
70 3% 34% Median
71 18% 31%  
72 8% 12%  
73 3% 4%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.3% 100% Last Result
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 2% 99.5%  
64 0.7% 98%  
65 1.5% 97%  
66 16% 95%  
67 14% 79%  
68 4% 65%  
69 9% 61%  
70 35% 53% Median
71 17% 18%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.3% 100%  
62 2% 99.7%  
63 0.5% 98%  
64 1.0% 97%  
65 16% 96%  
66 12% 81%  
67 5% 68%  
68 5% 63%  
69 40% 59% Median
70 18% 19%  
71 0.4% 0.9%  
72 0.1% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100% Last Result
59 0% 99.7%  
60 2% 99.7%  
61 0.5% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 10% 96%  
64 13% 85%  
65 9% 72%  
66 17% 63%  
67 9% 45% Median
68 35% 36%  
69 0.2% 0.7%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.3% 100%  
59 2% 99.7%  
60 0.3% 98%  
61 0.8% 98%  
62 7% 97%  
63 17% 90%  
64 8% 73%  
65 19% 64%  
66 2% 46% Median
67 42% 43%  
68 0.5% 1.1%  
69 0.2% 0.6%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.5% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.5%  
59 14% 99.1%  
60 0.9% 85%  
61 19% 84%  
62 17% 65%  
63 12% 48% Median
64 17% 36%  
65 7% 19%  
66 10% 12% Last Result
67 0.4% 2%  
68 0.1% 2%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 2% 100%  
56 0.3% 98%  
57 3% 98%  
58 12% 95%  
59 8% 83%  
60 18% 75%  
61 11% 57%  
62 5% 47% Median
63 13% 41%  
64 27% 28%  
65 0.6% 0.9%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 100%  
51 3% 99.8%  
52 13% 97%  
53 4% 84%  
54 5% 80%  
55 34% 75%  
56 26% 41% Median
57 5% 14%  
58 7% 10%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.8%  
40 1.2% 99.1%  
41 18% 98%  
42 30% 80%  
43 3% 50%  
44 17% 47% Median
45 6% 29%  
46 15% 23%  
47 6% 8% Last Result
48 2% 2%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 1.1% 100%  
33 4% 98.9% Last Result
34 18% 95%  
35 5% 77%  
36 31% 72%  
37 25% 41% Median
38 11% 16%  
39 1.3% 6%  
40 2% 4%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.9% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.1%  
29 2% 98.9%  
30 25% 97%  
31 10% 71%  
32 37% 61% Median
33 6% 25%  
34 10% 18%  
35 7% 8%  
36 0.6% 0.6%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 2% 100%  
26 2% 98%  
27 17% 96%  
28 6% 79% Last Result
29 32% 74%  
30 16% 42% Median
31 12% 26%  
32 11% 14%  
33 2% 3%  
34 1.3% 1.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations