Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 22–25 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.9–28.3% 23.5–28.8% 22.7–29.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 13.1% 11.8–14.5% 11.5–15.0% 11.2–15.3% 10.6–16.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.7% 11.5–14.1% 11.1–14.5% 10.8–14.9% 10.3–15.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.7–11.8% 8.5–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.8% 6.9–9.0% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.6% 5.9–10.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.7% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.1% 6.2–9.4% 5.8–10.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 3.0–6.3%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.7%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.6%
50Plus 3.1% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 40 37–45 36–45 36–46 34–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 20 17–22 17–22 17–22 16–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 21 17–21 17–24 17–24 17–24
Democraten 66 19 14 13–17 13–17 12–18 12–20
GroenLinks 14 12 10–15 10–15 10–15 10–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–13 9–14 9–15 8–15
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–9 5–9 5–9 4–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 4–7 4–8 4–8
Forum voor Democratie 2 3 2–4 1–4 1–4 1–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
DENK 3 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 0–3
50Plus 4 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.4% 100% Last Result
34 0.1% 99.6%  
35 0.4% 99.5%  
36 7% 99.1%  
37 18% 92%  
38 17% 74%  
39 5% 57%  
40 28% 52% Median
41 2% 24%  
42 4% 22%  
43 2% 17%  
44 3% 16%  
45 9% 13%  
46 4% 4%  
47 0.5% 0.5%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.8%  
17 25% 99.3%  
18 4% 74%  
19 10% 70% Last Result
20 20% 60% Median
21 19% 40%  
22 19% 21%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.1% 99.8%  
17 14% 99.7%  
18 7% 86%  
19 7% 79%  
20 22% 72% Last Result
21 41% 51% Median
22 3% 9%  
23 0.3% 7%  
24 6% 7%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 4% 100%  
13 19% 96%  
14 28% 77% Median
15 33% 49%  
16 6% 16%  
17 7% 10%  
18 2% 4%  
19 0.2% 1.2% Last Result
20 1.0% 1.0%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 29% 99.7%  
11 14% 71%  
12 11% 57% Median
13 20% 47%  
14 3% 27% Last Result
15 23% 24%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.8%  
9 6% 99.4% Last Result
10 2% 94%  
11 29% 92%  
12 38% 62% Median
13 16% 25%  
14 5% 9%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 6% 99.7%  
8 19% 94%  
9 34% 75% Median
10 35% 41%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 40% 99.0% Last Result
6 13% 59% Median
7 23% 46%  
8 6% 23%  
9 17% 17%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 7% 99.9%  
5 33% 93% Last Result
6 39% 60% Median
7 17% 21%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 33% 95% Last Result
3 17% 62% Median
4 44% 45%  
5 0.7% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 70% 95% Median
3 24% 24% Last Result
4 0.3% 0.4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 11% 99.9%  
2 62% 89% Median
3 26% 26% Last Result
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100% Last Result
1 33% 98.6%  
2 58% 66% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 70% 95% Median
2 25% 25%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 91 100% 87–97 87–98 87–98 87–98
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 92 100% 89–97 89–97 89–97 87–97
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 84 100% 83–88 81–88 81–88 79–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 79 99.3% 76–84 76–87 76–87 75–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 82 99.7% 80–86 79–86 78–86 76–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 79 98% 78–84 77–84 76–85 73–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 73 25% 71–80 71–82 71–82 70–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 70 13% 69–78 69–78 68–79 65–79
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 74 9% 71–75 71–76 70–77 68–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 65 0% 64–69 63–72 63–72 61–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 61–71 61–71 61–72 61–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 63 0% 63–68 63–71 61–71 60–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 62 0% 62–67 61–70 61–70 58–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 61 0% 60–66 60–69 59–69 57–69
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 62–66 61–67 60–68 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 58 0% 57–65 57–67 57–67 54–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 52 0% 48–56 48–56 47–60 45–60
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 43–49 43–50 43–51 41–51
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 37 0% 35–40 34–41 32–42 32–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 34 0% 31–37 31–38 31–38 31–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 32 0% 29–34 29–34 26–35 26–37

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 17% 99.6%  
88 0.2% 83%  
89 22% 82%  
90 5% 60%  
91 11% 55%  
92 2% 45% Median
93 19% 43%  
94 4% 24%  
95 0.4% 20%  
96 8% 19%  
97 2% 12%  
98 9% 9%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.6%  
88 1.3% 99.5%  
89 17% 98%  
90 21% 81% Last Result
91 5% 60%  
92 26% 55% Median
93 3% 29%  
94 7% 26%  
95 7% 19%  
96 2% 12%  
97 10% 11%  
98 0.1% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.2%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.3% 100% Last Result
78 0.1% 99.6%  
79 1.0% 99.5%  
80 0.5% 98.5%  
81 4% 98%  
82 0.5% 94%  
83 23% 94%  
84 25% 71%  
85 19% 46%  
86 4% 27% Median
87 9% 23%  
88 13% 14%  
89 0.2% 0.9%  
90 0.6% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.4% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.5%  
76 16% 99.3% Last Result, Majority
77 22% 83%  
78 6% 61%  
79 8% 55%  
80 16% 47% Median
81 1.0% 31%  
82 12% 30%  
83 3% 18%  
84 5% 15%  
85 0.2% 10%  
86 0.1% 9%  
87 9% 9%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.3% 100% Last Result
75 0% 99.7%  
76 0.6% 99.7% Majority
77 0.6% 99.1%  
78 1.4% 98.6%  
79 3% 97%  
80 15% 94%  
81 6% 80%  
82 30% 74%  
83 21% 44%  
84 1.3% 23% Median
85 8% 22%  
86 13% 14%  
87 0% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.7%  
89 0.6% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 0.3% 99.1%  
75 0.6% 98.7%  
76 1.3% 98% Majority
77 2% 97%  
78 41% 95%  
79 27% 54%  
80 4% 26%  
81 0.8% 22% Median
82 7% 22%  
83 1.4% 15%  
84 9% 13%  
85 4% 4%  
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.5%  
71 38% 99.2% Last Result
72 1.0% 61%  
73 22% 60%  
74 8% 38% Median
75 5% 30%  
76 4% 25% Majority
77 6% 21%  
78 5% 15%  
79 0.2% 11%  
80 1.0% 10%  
81 0.3% 9%  
82 9% 9%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.7% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.3%  
67 0.4% 99.2%  
68 1.5% 98.8%  
69 42% 97%  
70 14% 55%  
71 15% 42%  
72 5% 27% Median
73 4% 22%  
74 1.3% 18%  
75 4% 17%  
76 0.5% 13% Majority
77 0.1% 13%  
78 9% 13%  
79 4% 4%  
80 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.3%  
70 4% 99.2%  
71 23% 95%  
72 2% 72%  
73 11% 70% Median
74 40% 59%  
75 10% 18%  
76 6% 9% Majority
77 0.3% 3%  
78 1.3% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.1%  
80 0% 0.7% Last Result
81 0.5% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
62 1.0% 99.0%  
63 3% 98%  
64 30% 95%  
65 35% 64%  
66 4% 30% Median
67 5% 25%  
68 2% 20%  
69 8% 18%  
70 0.1% 9%  
71 0.1% 9%  
72 9% 9%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 0% 99.6%  
61 17% 99.6% Last Result
62 2% 83%  
63 7% 81%  
64 2% 74%  
65 1.5% 71%  
66 38% 70% Median
67 3% 31%  
68 4% 29%  
69 1.3% 24%  
70 6% 23%  
71 13% 17%  
72 4% 4%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 1.2% 99.6%  
61 1.1% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 47% 96%  
64 21% 49%  
65 2% 28% Median
66 6% 26%  
67 7% 20%  
68 4% 14%  
69 0.1% 9%  
70 0.1% 9%  
71 9% 9%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
59 0.7% 99.4%  
60 0.9% 98.8%  
61 3% 98%  
62 45% 95%  
63 19% 50%  
64 8% 31% Median
65 3% 23%  
66 5% 20%  
67 5% 15%  
68 0.5% 10%  
69 0.1% 9%  
70 9% 9%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0.7% 99.7%  
58 0.3% 99.0%  
59 1.3% 98.7%  
60 17% 97%  
61 31% 81%  
62 19% 49%  
63 5% 30% Median
64 9% 25%  
65 2% 15%  
66 4% 14%  
67 0.5% 10%  
68 0.1% 9%  
69 9% 9%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 3% 99.3%  
61 4% 96%  
62 5% 93%  
63 26% 87%  
64 24% 61% Median
65 18% 37%  
66 11% 20% Last Result
67 4% 8%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.4% 1.4%  
70 0.8% 1.0%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0.8% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.2%  
56 0.7% 98.8%  
57 22% 98%  
58 41% 76%  
59 3% 35%  
60 9% 32% Median
61 8% 23%  
62 1.3% 15%  
63 0.2% 14%  
64 0.7% 13%  
65 4% 13%  
66 0% 9%  
67 9% 9%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0.4% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.6%  
46 0.7% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 23% 97%  
49 3% 73%  
50 2% 71%  
51 18% 69%  
52 25% 50% Median
53 4% 26%  
54 5% 22%  
55 2% 17%  
56 10% 15%  
57 0.3% 4%  
58 0% 4%  
59 0.4% 4%  
60 4% 4%  
61 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.1% 99.3%  
43 25% 99.2%  
44 4% 74%  
45 21% 70%  
46 3% 50% Median
47 7% 47% Last Result
48 24% 40%  
49 9% 15%  
50 2% 6%  
51 4% 4%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 3% 100%  
33 2% 97% Last Result
34 5% 95%  
35 24% 90%  
36 2% 67%  
37 17% 65%  
38 19% 48% Median
39 1.0% 29%  
40 22% 28%  
41 2% 6%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 26% 99.6%  
32 4% 74%  
33 1.2% 70%  
34 21% 68% Median
35 19% 48%  
36 6% 29%  
37 17% 23%  
38 3% 6% Last Result
39 1.2% 2%  
40 1.0% 1.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 3% 100%  
27 0.7% 97%  
28 0.3% 97% Last Result
29 25% 96%  
30 6% 71%  
31 3% 66%  
32 21% 63% Median
33 29% 41%  
34 9% 12%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.1% 1.2%  
37 1.0% 1.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations