Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 22–25 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 26.0% | 24.3–27.8% | 23.9–28.3% | 23.5–28.8% | 22.7–29.7% | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 13.1% | 11.8–14.5% | 11.5–15.0% | 11.2–15.3% | 10.6–16.0% | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.5–14.1% | 11.1–14.5% | 10.8–14.9% | 10.3–15.6% | 
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 10.1% | 9.0–11.4% | 8.7–11.8% | 8.5–12.1% | 7.9–12.8% | 
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.9–9.0% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.4–9.6% | 5.9–10.2% | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.7–8.8% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.2–9.4% | 5.8–10.0% | 
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.8% | 3.0–6.3% | 
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.5% | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.8% | 
| DENK | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.8% | 
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.6% | 
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 40 | 37–45 | 36–45 | 36–46 | 34–46 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 20 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 21 | 17–21 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 17–24 | 
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 14 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 12–20 | 
| GroenLinks | 14 | 12 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 12 | 11–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 8–15 | 
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 6 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 3 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 
| DENK | 3 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 
| 50Plus | 4 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 18% | 92% | |
| 38 | 17% | 74% | |
| 39 | 5% | 57% | |
| 40 | 28% | 52% | Median | 
| 41 | 2% | 24% | |
| 42 | 4% | 22% | |
| 43 | 2% | 17% | |
| 44 | 3% | 16% | |
| 45 | 9% | 13% | |
| 46 | 4% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 25% | 99.3% | |
| 18 | 4% | 74% | |
| 19 | 10% | 70% | Last Result | 
| 20 | 20% | 60% | Median | 
| 21 | 19% | 40% | |
| 22 | 19% | 21% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 14% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 7% | 86% | |
| 19 | 7% | 79% | |
| 20 | 22% | 72% | Last Result | 
| 21 | 41% | 51% | Median | 
| 22 | 3% | 9% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 24 | 6% | 7% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | 
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 19% | 96% | |
| 14 | 28% | 77% | Median | 
| 15 | 33% | 49% | |
| 16 | 6% | 16% | |
| 17 | 7% | 10% | |
| 18 | 2% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 1.2% | Last Result | 
| 20 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 29% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 14% | 71% | |
| 12 | 11% | 57% | Median | 
| 13 | 20% | 47% | |
| 14 | 3% | 27% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 23% | 24% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 6% | 99.4% | Last Result | 
| 10 | 2% | 94% | |
| 11 | 29% | 92% | |
| 12 | 38% | 62% | Median | 
| 13 | 16% | 25% | |
| 14 | 5% | 9% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | 
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 19% | 94% | |
| 9 | 34% | 75% | Median | 
| 10 | 35% | 41% | |
| 11 | 5% | 7% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 40% | 99.0% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 13% | 59% | Median | 
| 7 | 23% | 46% | |
| 8 | 6% | 23% | |
| 9 | 17% | 17% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | 
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 33% | 93% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 39% | 60% | Median | 
| 7 | 17% | 21% | |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | 
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 33% | 95% | Last Result | 
| 3 | 17% | 62% | Median | 
| 4 | 44% | 45% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | 
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 70% | 95% | Median | 
| 3 | 24% | 24% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | 
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 62% | 89% | Median | 
| 3 | 26% | 26% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 1 | 33% | 98.6% | |
| 2 | 58% | 66% | Median | 
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 70% | 95% | Median | 
| 2 | 25% | 25% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 85 | 91 | 100% | 87–97 | 87–98 | 87–98 | 87–98 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 90 | 92 | 100% | 89–97 | 89–97 | 89–97 | 87–97 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 84 | 100% | 83–88 | 81–88 | 81–88 | 79–90 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 76 | 79 | 99.3% | 76–84 | 76–87 | 76–87 | 75–87 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 82 | 99.7% | 80–86 | 79–86 | 78–86 | 76–89 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid | 72 | 79 | 98% | 78–84 | 77–84 | 76–85 | 73–86 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 71 | 73 | 25% | 71–80 | 71–82 | 71–82 | 70–82 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 70 | 13% | 69–78 | 69–78 | 68–79 | 65–79 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 80 | 74 | 9% | 71–75 | 71–76 | 70–77 | 68–81 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 65 | 0% | 64–69 | 63–72 | 63–72 | 61–72 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 66 | 0% | 61–71 | 61–71 | 61–72 | 61–73 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 63 | 0% | 63–68 | 63–71 | 61–71 | 60–71 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 62 | 0% | 62–67 | 61–70 | 61–70 | 58–70 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 54 | 61 | 0% | 60–66 | 60–69 | 59–69 | 57–69 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 66 | 64 | 0% | 62–66 | 61–67 | 60–68 | 59–70 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 58 | 0% | 57–65 | 57–67 | 57–67 | 54–67 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 52 | 0% | 48–56 | 48–56 | 47–60 | 45–60 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 47 | 45 | 0% | 43–49 | 43–50 | 43–51 | 41–51 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 33 | 37 | 0% | 35–40 | 34–41 | 32–42 | 32–42 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 38 | 34 | 0% | 31–37 | 31–38 | 31–38 | 31–40 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 28 | 32 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–34 | 26–35 | 26–37 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 17% | 99.6% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 83% | |
| 89 | 22% | 82% | |
| 90 | 5% | 60% | |
| 91 | 11% | 55% | |
| 92 | 2% | 45% | Median | 
| 93 | 19% | 43% | |
| 94 | 4% | 24% | |
| 95 | 0.4% | 20% | |
| 96 | 8% | 19% | |
| 97 | 2% | 12% | |
| 98 | 9% | 9% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 88 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 89 | 17% | 98% | |
| 90 | 21% | 81% | Last Result | 
| 91 | 5% | 60% | |
| 92 | 26% | 55% | Median | 
| 93 | 3% | 29% | |
| 94 | 7% | 26% | |
| 95 | 7% | 19% | |
| 96 | 2% | 12% | |
| 97 | 10% | 11% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 78 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 81 | 4% | 98% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 83 | 23% | 94% | |
| 84 | 25% | 71% | |
| 85 | 19% | 46% | |
| 86 | 4% | 27% | Median | 
| 87 | 9% | 23% | |
| 88 | 13% | 14% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 90 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 16% | 99.3% | Last Result, Majority | 
| 77 | 22% | 83% | |
| 78 | 6% | 61% | |
| 79 | 8% | 55% | |
| 80 | 16% | 47% | Median | 
| 81 | 1.0% | 31% | |
| 82 | 12% | 30% | |
| 83 | 3% | 18% | |
| 84 | 5% | 15% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 87 | 9% | 9% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 75 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 98.6% | |
| 79 | 3% | 97% | |
| 80 | 15% | 94% | |
| 81 | 6% | 80% | |
| 82 | 30% | 74% | |
| 83 | 21% | 44% | |
| 84 | 1.3% | 23% | Median | 
| 85 | 8% | 22% | |
| 86 | 13% | 14% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result | 
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 98% | Majority | 
| 77 | 2% | 97% | |
| 78 | 41% | 95% | |
| 79 | 27% | 54% | |
| 80 | 4% | 26% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 22% | Median | 
| 82 | 7% | 22% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 84 | 9% | 13% | |
| 85 | 4% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 71 | 38% | 99.2% | Last Result | 
| 72 | 1.0% | 61% | |
| 73 | 22% | 60% | |
| 74 | 8% | 38% | Median | 
| 75 | 5% | 30% | |
| 76 | 4% | 25% | Majority | 
| 77 | 6% | 21% | |
| 78 | 5% | 15% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 82 | 9% | 9% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 68 | 1.5% | 98.8% | |
| 69 | 42% | 97% | |
| 70 | 14% | 55% | |
| 71 | 15% | 42% | |
| 72 | 5% | 27% | Median | 
| 73 | 4% | 22% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 18% | |
| 75 | 4% | 17% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 13% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 78 | 9% | 13% | |
| 79 | 4% | 4% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 23% | 95% | |
| 72 | 2% | 72% | |
| 73 | 11% | 70% | Median | 
| 74 | 40% | 59% | |
| 75 | 10% | 18% | |
| 76 | 6% | 9% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 78 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.7% | Last Result | 
| 81 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.7% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 30% | 95% | |
| 65 | 35% | 64% | |
| 66 | 4% | 30% | Median | 
| 67 | 5% | 25% | |
| 68 | 2% | 20% | |
| 69 | 8% | 18% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 72 | 9% | 9% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 17% | 99.6% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 2% | 83% | |
| 63 | 7% | 81% | |
| 64 | 2% | 74% | |
| 65 | 1.5% | 71% | |
| 66 | 38% | 70% | Median | 
| 67 | 3% | 31% | |
| 68 | 4% | 29% | |
| 69 | 1.3% | 24% | |
| 70 | 6% | 23% | |
| 71 | 13% | 17% | |
| 72 | 4% | 4% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 62 | 2% | 97% | |
| 63 | 47% | 96% | |
| 64 | 21% | 49% | |
| 65 | 2% | 28% | Median | 
| 66 | 6% | 26% | |
| 67 | 7% | 20% | |
| 68 | 4% | 14% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 71 | 9% | 9% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Last Result | 
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 45% | 95% | |
| 63 | 19% | 50% | |
| 64 | 8% | 31% | Median | 
| 65 | 3% | 23% | |
| 66 | 5% | 20% | |
| 67 | 5% | 15% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 70 | 9% | 9% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 17% | 97% | |
| 61 | 31% | 81% | |
| 62 | 19% | 49% | |
| 63 | 5% | 30% | Median | 
| 64 | 9% | 25% | |
| 65 | 2% | 15% | |
| 66 | 4% | 14% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 69 | 9% | 9% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 4% | 96% | |
| 62 | 5% | 93% | |
| 63 | 26% | 87% | |
| 64 | 24% | 61% | Median | 
| 65 | 18% | 37% | |
| 66 | 11% | 20% | Last Result | 
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 3% | 4% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 57 | 22% | 98% | |
| 58 | 41% | 76% | |
| 59 | 3% | 35% | |
| 60 | 9% | 32% | Median | 
| 61 | 8% | 23% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 15% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 65 | 4% | 13% | |
| 66 | 0% | 9% | |
| 67 | 9% | 9% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 48 | 23% | 97% | |
| 49 | 3% | 73% | |
| 50 | 2% | 71% | |
| 51 | 18% | 69% | |
| 52 | 25% | 50% | Median | 
| 53 | 4% | 26% | |
| 54 | 5% | 22% | |
| 55 | 2% | 17% | |
| 56 | 10% | 15% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 58 | 0% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 60 | 4% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 43 | 25% | 99.2% | |
| 44 | 4% | 74% | |
| 45 | 21% | 70% | |
| 46 | 3% | 50% | Median | 
| 47 | 7% | 47% | Last Result | 
| 48 | 24% | 40% | |
| 49 | 9% | 15% | |
| 50 | 2% | 6% | |
| 51 | 4% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 2% | 97% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 5% | 95% | |
| 35 | 24% | 90% | |
| 36 | 2% | 67% | |
| 37 | 17% | 65% | |
| 38 | 19% | 48% | Median | 
| 39 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 40 | 22% | 28% | |
| 41 | 2% | 6% | |
| 42 | 3% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 26% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 4% | 74% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 70% | |
| 34 | 21% | 68% | Median | 
| 35 | 19% | 48% | |
| 36 | 6% | 29% | |
| 37 | 17% | 23% | |
| 38 | 3% | 6% | Last Result | 
| 39 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 3% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 97% | Last Result | 
| 29 | 25% | 96% | |
| 30 | 6% | 71% | |
| 31 | 3% | 66% | |
| 32 | 21% | 63% | Median | 
| 33 | 29% | 41% | |
| 34 | 9% | 12% | |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
 - Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
 - Fieldwork period: 22–25 January 2021
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1045
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 3.31%