Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 23–26 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 27.9% 26.3–29.6% 25.8–30.1% 25.5–30.5% 24.7–31.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.6% 10.3–13.9% 9.7–14.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.3% 10.2–12.6% 9.9–12.9% 9.6–13.2% 9.1–13.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.3–10.5% 8.0–10.8% 7.8–11.1% 7.3–11.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.6% 7.7–9.8% 7.4–10.1% 7.2–10.4% 6.8–10.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.4–8.4% 6.2–8.7% 6.0–8.9% 5.6–9.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.2–4.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.2–4.9%
50Plus 3.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.3%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 44 44–46 43–46 41–46 40–47
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–20
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 17–18 16–18 16–18 16–20
Democraten 66 19 16 13–16 13–16 12–16 11–18
GroenLinks 14 13 13 13–14 13–14 12–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 11 11–12 10–13 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 11 9–11 9–11 9–12 9–13
ChristenUnie 5 3 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
50Plus 4 3 3 3 2–3 2–3
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3–4 3–5 2–5
DENK 3 3 3 3 2–3 2–5
Forum voor Democratie 2 3 3 3 2–3 2–4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 1.4% 99.8%  
41 1.4% 98%  
42 0.8% 97%  
43 4% 96%  
44 62% 93% Median
45 0.4% 30%  
46 29% 30%  
47 0.6% 0.7%  
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.8%  
16 61% 99.1% Median
17 3% 39%  
18 30% 36%  
19 3% 5% Last Result
20 2% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.7%  
16 5% 99.5%  
17 32% 95%  
18 61% 63% Median
19 0.3% 2%  
20 1.5% 2% Last Result
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 2% 98%  
13 30% 97%  
14 4% 67%  
15 0.6% 63%  
16 61% 62% Median
17 0.2% 1.1%  
18 0.9% 0.9%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 0.4% 99.7%  
13 92% 99.2% Median
14 6% 8% Last Result
15 0.3% 1.5%  
16 1.2% 1.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100% Last Result
10 3% 99.8%  
11 91% 97% Median
12 3% 6%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 31% 99.9%  
10 2% 69%  
11 62% 67% Median
12 3% 4%  
13 0.6% 1.0%  
14 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 62% 100% Median
4 5% 38%  
5 1.4% 33% Last Result
6 32% 32%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100%  
4 32% 99.4%  
5 65% 67% Last Result, Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 3% 99.8%  
3 96% 97% Median
4 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 2% 99.7%  
3 92% 98% Last Result, Median
4 2% 5%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 4% 99.9%  
3 93% 96% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 3% 99.5% Last Result
3 96% 96% Median
4 0.4% 0.6%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 92 100% 92–96 92–96 92–96 90–96
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 90 100% 90–94 90–94 89–94 88–94
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 84 100% 84–87 84–87 81–87 80–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 99.8% 81–84 81–84 78–84 77–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 79 99.6% 79–83 79–83 77–83 76–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 78 98% 78–81 78–81 76–81 75–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 76 93% 76–77 75–77 74–77 70–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 71 0.4% 71–75 71–75 71–75 69–75
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 2% 70 70–73 70–75 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 69 0% 69–73 68–73 67–74 65–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 71 0% 70–71 68–71 66–71 64–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 66–70 66–70 64–71 62–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie 58 66 0% 66–70 65–70 64–70 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 63 0% 63–67 62–67 61–67 59–67
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 59–61 59–63 59–64 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 60 0% 60–64 60–64 59–64 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 55 0% 55–57 54–57 54–57 52–58
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 42–43 42–43 41–46 40–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 30–35 30–35 30–36 30–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 32 0% 31–32 31–32 30–34 28–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 27–29 27–30 27–32 27–32

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.3% 100%  
87 0% 99.7%  
88 0.1% 99.7%  
89 0% 99.6%  
90 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
91 1.5% 99.3%  
92 62% 98% Median
93 3% 36%  
94 0.5% 33%  
95 3% 33%  
96 29% 30%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.4% 99.9%  
88 1.2% 99.5%  
89 3% 98%  
90 61% 96% Median
91 2% 35%  
92 0.8% 33%  
93 3% 33%  
94 29% 30%  
95 0.1% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100% Last Result
78 0% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 1.1% 99.5%  
81 2% 98%  
82 0.4% 97%  
83 0.7% 96%  
84 61% 96% Median
85 0.4% 35%  
86 2% 35%  
87 33% 33%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.8% Majority
77 0.3% 99.5%  
78 2% 99.3%  
79 0.6% 97%  
80 0.5% 96%  
81 60% 96% Median
82 5% 35%  
83 0.7% 30%  
84 29% 30%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 0% 99.7%  
75 0.1% 99.7%  
76 1.1% 99.6% Last Result, Majority
77 1.3% 98.5%  
78 0.8% 97%  
79 62% 96% Median
80 1.0% 34%  
81 3% 33%  
82 0.2% 30%  
83 29% 30%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0.4% 100%  
74 0% 99.6%  
75 2% 99.5%  
76 1.3% 98% Majority
77 0.3% 96%  
78 61% 96% Median
79 4% 35%  
80 2% 31%  
81 29% 30%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 0% 99.7%  
70 1.1% 99.7%  
71 0.1% 98.6% Last Result
72 0.1% 98.5%  
73 0.5% 98%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 61% 93% Median, Majority
77 31% 32%  
78 0.1% 0.5%  
79 0% 0.4%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.9% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.0%  
71 63% 98.8% Median
72 2% 36%  
73 2% 34%  
74 0.8% 32%  
75 31% 32%  
76 0% 0.4% Majority
77 0% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.8% 99.9%  
70 91% 99.1% Median
71 1.1% 8%  
72 0.7% 7%  
73 2% 6%  
74 0.3% 4%  
75 1.2% 3%  
76 0.6% 2% Majority
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.3% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 1.1% 99.5%  
66 0.2% 98%  
67 1.0% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 61% 95% Median
70 0.1% 34%  
71 0.4% 34%  
72 0.3% 33%  
73 30% 33%  
74 3% 3%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 1.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 98.8%  
66 2% 98.6%  
67 0.6% 97%  
68 3% 96%  
69 2% 94%  
70 29% 92%  
71 61% 62% Median
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.4% 100%  
62 0% 99.5%  
63 1.2% 99.5%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 1.0% 97%  
66 62% 96% Median
67 0.1% 34%  
68 0.4% 34%  
69 0.2% 34%  
70 30% 33%  
71 3% 3%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0.3% 100%  
60 0% 99.7%  
61 0% 99.7%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 1.2% 99.5%  
64 2% 98%  
65 0.9% 96%  
66 61% 95% Median
67 0.1% 34%  
68 0.7% 34%  
69 3% 33%  
70 30% 30%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.3% 100%  
58 0% 99.7%  
59 0.2% 99.7%  
60 0% 99.5%  
61 2% 99.4%  
62 3% 97%  
63 61% 95% Median
64 0.2% 34%  
65 0.5% 34%  
66 4% 34%  
67 30% 30%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.8%  
58 0.1% 99.2%  
59 63% 99.1% Median
60 0.4% 36%  
61 29% 36%  
62 0.5% 6%  
63 1.2% 6%  
64 2% 5%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0.3% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.7%  
57 0.2% 99.6%  
58 1.0% 99.5%  
59 2% 98%  
60 62% 96% Median
61 0.7% 35%  
62 0.4% 34%  
63 3% 34%  
64 30% 30%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.6%  
53 2% 99.1%  
54 4% 98%  
55 63% 93% Median
56 0.1% 31%  
57 30% 30%  
58 0.3% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.4% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.6%  
40 0.2% 99.6%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 31% 97%  
43 62% 67% Median
44 0.5% 4%  
45 0.3% 4%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.2% 1.3% Last Result
48 0.9% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 60% 99.9% Median
31 1.5% 39%  
32 0.1% 38%  
33 3% 38% Last Result
34 1.3% 35%  
35 30% 34%  
36 2% 4%  
37 0.3% 2%  
38 1.2% 1.4%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 1.0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.0%  
30 2% 98.9%  
31 32% 97%  
32 61% 65% Median
33 0.8% 4%  
34 2% 3%  
35 1.0% 1.4%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 61% 99.8% Median
28 2% 38% Last Result
29 31% 37%  
30 2% 5%  
31 0.2% 4%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.2% 0.4%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations