Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 29–30 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.3% 22.3–24.3% 22.1–24.6% 21.8–24.9% 21.4–25.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 16.0% 15.1–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.6% 11.9–13.4% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.1–14.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Bij1 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Volt Europa 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 37 36–39 36–39 36–39 34–39
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 24 24–25 24–25 24–27 23–27
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 19 18–19 18–20 18–20 18–21
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Democraten 66 19 12 11–12 11–13 11–13 10–13
Socialistische Partij 14 9 9 9 9–10 9–11
GroenLinks 14 9 9 9 8–9 8–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7–8 7–8 5–9 5–9
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bij1 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Volt Europa 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.4% 100% Last Result
34 0.4% 99.6%  
35 1.1% 99.2%  
36 10% 98%  
37 52% 88% Median
38 1.0% 36%  
39 35% 35%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.8%  
23 0.4% 99.7%  
24 82% 99.3% Median
25 13% 17%  
26 0.8% 4%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 45% 99.9%  
19 50% 55% Last Result, Median
20 4% 5%  
21 0.7% 0.8%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.7% 100%  
11 38% 99.3%  
12 51% 61% Median
13 10% 10%  
14 0.5% 0.5%  
15 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 2% 99.6%  
11 38% 98%  
12 50% 60% Median
13 9% 9%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 95% 99.8% Median
10 4% 5%  
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 95% 96% Median
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.6%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100% Last Result
6 13% 99.3%  
7 82% 86% Median
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100% Last Result
6 1.3% 97%  
7 57% 96% Median
8 35% 38%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 7% 100%  
4 46% 93% Median
5 47% 47%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 96% 96% Last Result, Median
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 51% 100% Median
3 49% 49% Last Result
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 50% 100%  
3 50% 50% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 53% 53% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100% Last Result
1 98.5% 98.7% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 88 100% 86–88 86–88 86–89 84–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 87 100% 86–87 86–87 85–88 81–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 85 100% 83–85 83–85 83–86 81–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 84 100% 82–84 82–84 82–85 79–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 80 100% 79–81 79–82 79–83 77–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 75 4% 73–75 73–75 73–77 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 68 0% 67–68 67–68 67–69 64–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 68 0% 67–68 67–68 67–68 65–70
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 80 68 0% 65–68 65–68 65–68 65–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 64 0% 62–65 62–65 62–65 61–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 64 0% 61–64 61–64 61–64 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 59–62 59–62 59–62 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 61 0% 61 60–62 59–62 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 61 0% 58–61 58–61 58–61 57–62
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 56–59 56–59 56–59 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 56 0% 54–57 54–57 54–57 53–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 49–50 48–50 48–50 46–50
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 43 0% 40–44 40–44 40–44 40–44
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 38 0% 36–38 36–38 36–39 35–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 29–31 29–31 29–32 28–32
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 31 0% 29–31 29–31 29–31 29–34

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 1.0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 98.9%  
86 10% 98.8%  
87 3% 89% Median
88 82% 86%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.8% 0.9%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.6% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.4%  
83 0.7% 99.3%  
84 0.4% 98.6%  
85 2% 98% Last Result
86 45% 96%  
87 47% 50% Median
88 3% 3%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0.7% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.1%  
83 10% 98.8%  
84 0.3% 89% Median
85 85% 89%  
86 3% 4%  
87 0.9% 0.9%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.7% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.3%  
81 0.5% 99.1%  
82 13% 98.6%  
83 0.4% 86%  
84 82% 86% Median
85 4% 4%  
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.5% 100%  
78 0.4% 99.4%  
79 10% 99.0%  
80 47% 89% Median
81 36% 42%  
82 3% 7%  
83 3% 3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.6% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 99.2%  
72 0.7% 98.6%  
73 12% 98%  
74 0.2% 86%  
75 82% 86% Median
76 1.0% 4% Last Result, Majority
77 3% 3%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.4% 100%  
64 0.9% 99.6%  
65 0.5% 98.7%  
66 0.5% 98%  
67 12% 98%  
68 82% 86% Median
69 3% 4%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.9%  
66 1.0% 99.2%  
67 10% 98%  
68 87% 89% Median
69 0.5% 1.3%  
70 0.4% 0.8%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 35% 99.9%  
66 0.7% 65%  
67 3% 64%  
68 59% 61% Median
69 0.5% 2%  
70 0.6% 1.3%  
71 0.6% 0.7%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.5% Last Result
62 10% 98.7%  
63 6% 89%  
64 47% 83% Median
65 35% 36%  
66 1.2% 1.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.8% 99.5%  
61 10% 98.7%  
62 6% 89%  
63 0.4% 83% Median
64 81% 83%  
65 1.0% 1.2%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.8% 99.5% Last Result
59 10% 98.7%  
60 3% 89%  
61 50% 86% Median
62 35% 36%  
63 1.2% 1.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.4% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.6%  
57 0.3% 99.5%  
58 2% 99.2%  
59 0.6% 98%  
60 6% 97%  
61 82% 91% Last Result, Median
62 9% 10%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.8% 99.6%  
58 10% 98.8%  
59 3% 89%  
60 4% 86% Median
61 82% 83%  
62 1.0% 1.2%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.5% 100%  
56 35% 99.4%  
57 3% 64%  
58 0.3% 61%  
59 60% 61% Median
60 0.6% 1.3%  
61 0.6% 0.7%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100% Last Result
53 0.6% 99.8%  
54 10% 99.2%  
55 0.2% 89%  
56 50% 89% Median
57 38% 39%  
58 1.0% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.4% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 0.7% 99.2%  
48 4% 98%  
49 59% 94% Median
50 35% 36%  
51 0.4% 0.5%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 36% 100%  
41 0.3% 64%  
42 3% 64%  
43 50% 60% Median
44 10% 10%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.6% 100%  
36 35% 99.4%  
37 12% 65%  
38 48% 52% Median
39 3% 4%  
40 0.5% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.5%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.6% 100%  
29 35% 99.3%  
30 4% 64%  
31 57% 60% Median
32 3% 3%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 35% 100%  
30 1.2% 65%  
31 62% 64% Median
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.7%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations