Opinion Poll by I&O Research for De Volkskrant, 29 January–2 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 28.4% 27.2–29.7% 26.9–30.0% 26.6–30.3% 26.0–31.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.6% 11.7–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.2–14.0% 10.8–14.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.6% 11.7–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.2–14.0% 10.8–14.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.6% 7.9–9.4% 7.7–9.6% 7.5–9.8% 7.1–10.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–8.9% 6.8–9.1% 6.5–9.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.3% 6.6–8.0% 6.4–8.3% 6.3–8.4% 5.9–8.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.6–8.0% 6.4–8.3% 6.3–8.4% 5.9–8.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.6% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Piratenpartij 0.3% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%
Bij1 0.3% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%
Volt Europa 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 44 44 44 42–44 41–46
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 20 20 19–20 18–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 21 21 21 20–21 18–22
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 12 12 12–15 12–16
Democraten 66 19 10 10 10–11 10–12 10–14
GroenLinks 14 13 13 13 11–13 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 11 11 10–11 10–11 9–12
ChristenUnie 5 5 5 5–6 5–6 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5 5 5–6 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Forum voor Democratie 2 3 3 3 3 2–3
DENK 3 2 2 2 2 1–2
50Plus 4 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bij1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Code Oranje 0 0 0 0 0 0
Volt Europa 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 1.3% 99.9%  
42 2% 98.6%  
43 0.4% 96%  
44 95% 96% Median
45 0.1% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.6%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 3% 99.3%  
20 95% 96% Last Result, Median
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 0.4% 98% Last Result
20 0.9% 98%  
21 95% 97% Median
22 1.4% 1.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 95% 99.7% Median
13 0.8% 4%  
14 0.2% 4%  
15 2% 3%  
16 1.2% 1.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 94% 100% Median
11 3% 6%  
12 1.4% 3%  
13 0.4% 2%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.3% 99.8%  
10 0.3% 99.5%  
11 4% 99.2%  
12 0% 96%  
13 96% 96% Median
14 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 1.4% 99.7%  
10 4% 98%  
11 94% 95% Median
12 0.5% 0.7%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 94% 100% Last Result, Median
6 4% 6%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 0% 98%  
5 96% 98% Last Result, Median
6 1.0% 3%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 96% 100% Median
3 4% 4% Last Result
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.5% 100% Last Result
3 98% 98.5% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100%  
2 99.2% 99.3% Median
3 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 97% 97% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 98.9% 98.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 85 92 100% 92 92 92–95 92–98
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 93 100% 93 93 93–94 87–97
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 90 100% 90 90 87–90 85–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 88 100% 88 88 84–88 83–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 85 100% 85 85 82–85 80–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 80 100% 80 80 80–81 76–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 77 98% 77 77 76–78 74–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 75 2% 75 75 74–75 70–80
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 2% 72 72 72–74 70–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 71 0% 71 71 68–71 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 70 0% 70 70 68–70 64–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 61 66 0% 66 66–68 66–69 66–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 69 0% 69 69 65–69 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 68 0% 68 68 65–68 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 65 0% 65 65 62–65 59–66
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 61 61–62 61–65 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 56 0% 56 56 56–57 55–58
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 47 43 0% 43 43–45 43–47 43–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 38 0% 38 38–39 38–40 38–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 33 0% 33 33 33–34 31–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 31 31 31–32 29–36

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 95% 99.9% Median
93 0.7% 5%  
94 0.5% 4%  
95 1.3% 4%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0% 2%  
98 1.4% 2%  
99 0.1% 0.4%  
100 0.3% 0.3%  
101 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 1.2% 100%  
88 0.2% 98.8%  
89 0.2% 98.6%  
90 0.2% 98% Last Result
91 0.4% 98%  
92 0.2% 98%  
93 95% 98% Median
94 1.2% 3%  
95 0% 1.5%  
96 0% 1.5%  
97 1.4% 1.4%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 2% 100%  
86 0.2% 98%  
87 2% 98%  
88 0.1% 96%  
89 0.6% 96%  
90 94% 96% Median
91 1.5% 2%  
92 0.3% 0.3%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 2% 99.8%  
84 1.4% 98%  
85 0.6% 97%  
86 0.4% 96%  
87 0.2% 96%  
88 95% 95% Median
89 0% 0.3%  
90 0.3% 0.3%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 100%  
80 2% 99.9%  
81 0.6% 98%  
82 2% 98%  
83 0.4% 96%  
84 0.2% 96%  
85 95% 95% Median
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 1.2% 100% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 98.8%  
78 0.2% 98.8%  
79 0.2% 98.6%  
80 95% 98% Median
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0% 2%  
83 0.3% 2%  
84 0% 2%  
85 0.3% 2%  
86 1.4% 1.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 99.7%  
75 1.4% 99.0%  
76 0.2% 98% Majority
77 94% 97% Median
78 3% 3%  
79 0% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.4%  
81 0% 0.3%  
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 1.2% 100%  
71 0.2% 98.8% Last Result
72 0.1% 98.7%  
73 0.6% 98.6%  
74 2% 98%  
75 94% 96% Median
76 0.3% 2% Majority
77 0% 2%  
78 0% 2%  
79 0.3% 2%  
80 1.4% 1.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.2% 99.4%  
72 95% 99.2% Median
73 0.4% 4%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.1% 2%  
76 1.3% 2% Majority
77 0.6% 0.6%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 1.2% 100%  
66 0.1% 98.8%  
67 1.1% 98.7%  
68 1.3% 98%  
69 0.1% 96%  
70 0.6% 96%  
71 94% 96% Median
72 0.3% 2%  
73 1.5% 1.5%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 1.2% 100%  
65 0.2% 98.8%  
66 0.1% 98.7%  
67 1.0% 98.5%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 0.5% 96%  
70 94% 96% Median
71 0.1% 2%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 94% 99.9% Median
67 0.3% 6%  
68 3% 6%  
69 0.9% 3%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0% 0.4%  
72 0% 0.4%  
73 0% 0.4%  
74 0.4% 0.4%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 1.2% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 98.7%  
65 2% 98%  
66 0.1% 96%  
67 0.7% 96%  
68 0.1% 95%  
69 94% 95% Median
70 2% 2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 1.4% 100%  
63 0% 98.6%  
64 0.1% 98.5%  
65 2% 98%  
66 0.7% 96%  
67 0.1% 95%  
68 94% 95% Median
69 1.4% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.4%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 1.4% 100%  
60 0% 98.6%  
61 0.4% 98.5%  
62 0.6% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 0% 95%  
65 94% 95% Median
66 1.4% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0% 99.7%  
58 0% 99.7%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0% 99.7%  
61 94% 99.6% Median
62 1.5% 5%  
63 0.5% 4%  
64 0% 3%  
65 1.4% 3%  
66 1.3% 2% Last Result
67 0.6% 0.6%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.4% 100%  
54 0% 99.6%  
55 0.2% 99.6%  
56 95% 99.4% Median
57 3% 4%  
58 0.3% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.4%  
60 0% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 0% 99.7%  
42 0.1% 99.7%  
43 94% 99.6% Median
44 0.3% 5%  
45 1.5% 5%  
46 0.2% 4%  
47 2% 4% Last Result
48 1.4% 1.4%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.7%  
38 94% 99.6% Median
39 0.7% 5%  
40 3% 5%  
41 0.3% 2%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.7%  
31 0.4% 99.6%  
32 0.8% 99.2%  
33 94% 98% Median
34 3% 5%  
35 0.9% 2%  
36 1.3% 1.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.2% 99.7%  
30 0.8% 98.5%  
31 94% 98% Median
32 2% 4%  
33 0.1% 2%  
34 0.3% 2%  
35 0% 1.4%  
36 1.4% 1.4%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations