Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 5–6 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.3% 22.3–24.3% 22.1–24.6% 21.8–24.9% 21.4–25.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 16.0% 15.1–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Volt Europa 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 33–37 33–38 31–39 31–39
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 25 24–26 24–26 23–27 22–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 17–19 17–19 16–20 16–20
Democraten 66 19 15 12–15 12–15 11–15 11–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 13–14 12–15 12–16 11–16
GroenLinks 14 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 8–11
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 8 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 4–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Volt Europa 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 3% 100%  
32 0% 97%  
33 54% 97% Last Result, Median
34 13% 43%  
35 2% 30%  
36 8% 28%  
37 11% 20%  
38 6% 9%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.1% 99.7%  
23 2% 98.6%  
24 19% 96%  
25 66% 77% Median
26 8% 12%  
27 2% 3%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 61% 97% Median
18 11% 36%  
19 21% 25% Last Result
20 4% 4%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 14% 97%  
13 25% 83%  
14 4% 58%  
15 54% 54% Median
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 0.6% 100%  
12 8% 99.4%  
13 69% 91% Median
14 17% 23%  
15 0.9% 5%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 15% 99.8%  
9 67% 85% Median
10 11% 18%  
11 7% 7%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 5% 100%  
8 16% 95%  
9 68% 79% Median
10 10% 11%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100% Last Result
6 6% 96%  
7 71% 90% Median
8 14% 19%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100% Last Result
6 11% 99.7%  
7 27% 88%  
8 61% 61% Median
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 8% 100%  
4 16% 92%  
5 67% 76% Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 28% 99.9%  
3 71% 72% Last Result, Median
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 15% 100%  
3 80% 85% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 86% 95% Median
3 9% 9% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100%  
1 79% 80% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Last Result, Median
1 30% 30%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 85 100% 85–90 85–90 83–90 82–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 83 100% 83–87 83–88 83–88 82–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 81 100% 81–84 81–86 80–86 77–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 80 100% 80–84 80–86 80–86 79–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 75 46% 75–81 75–81 75–81 75–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 72 12% 72–76 72–76 69–76 68–77
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 0% 67–72 66–72 66–73 65–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 63 0% 63–69 63–70 63–72 63–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 65 0% 65–69 64–69 63–69 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 60–64 58–66 57–66 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 59 0% 59–63 59–64 57–64 57–66
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 59–62 59–63 58–63 57–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 58–62 58–63 57–63 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 56 0% 56–60 56–61 55–62 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 55–60 55–60 55–61 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 50–56 50–56 50–56 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 46 0% 46–51 46–52 44–53 44–53
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 43–46 42–47 42–48 42–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 37 0% 37–40 37–40 36–41 35–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 30 0% 30–33 30–34 29–35 29–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 32 0% 30–32 29–32 29–33 28–35

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 1.5% 100%  
83 2% 98.5%  
84 1.1% 96%  
85 57% 95% Last Result, Median
86 2% 38%  
87 14% 36%  
88 6% 22%  
89 6% 16%  
90 10% 10%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.3% 99.9%  
82 1.2% 99.6%  
83 57% 98% Median
84 6% 42%  
85 13% 36%  
86 2% 22%  
87 14% 21%  
88 6% 7%  
89 0.7% 1.0%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 1.5% 100%  
78 0.1% 98.5%  
79 0.1% 98%  
80 3% 98%  
81 55% 95% Median
82 12% 40%  
83 2% 28%  
84 16% 26%  
85 4% 9%  
86 5% 6%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0.4% 100%  
79 0.6% 99.6%  
80 54% 99.0% Median
81 3% 45%  
82 7% 41%  
83 13% 34%  
84 12% 21%  
85 4% 9%  
86 5% 5%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 53% 99.6% Median
76 2% 46% Majority
77 12% 44%  
78 7% 32%  
79 6% 25%  
80 9% 19%  
81 10% 10%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 1.5% 100%  
69 1.4% 98.5%  
70 1.1% 97%  
71 1.0% 96%  
72 55% 95% Median
73 11% 40%  
74 8% 29%  
75 10% 21%  
76 11% 12% Last Result, Majority
77 0.3% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.4%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 2% 100%  
66 4% 98%  
67 4% 94%  
68 1.1% 89%  
69 3% 88%  
70 73% 85% Median
71 2% 12%  
72 6% 10%  
73 4% 4%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.4% 0.4%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 100%  
63 51% 99.9% Median
64 5% 48%  
65 7% 43%  
66 6% 36%  
67 9% 31%  
68 9% 22%  
69 4% 13%  
70 5% 10%  
71 0.4% 5%  
72 4% 4%  
73 0% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 1.5% 100%  
63 2% 98.5%  
64 4% 96%  
65 54% 92% Median
66 15% 38%  
67 6% 24%  
68 5% 17%  
69 11% 12%  
70 0.6% 1.0%  
71 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
72 0% 0.3%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 3% 100%  
58 3% 97%  
59 4% 94%  
60 5% 91%  
61 62% 86% Last Result, Median
62 5% 24%  
63 2% 19%  
64 11% 17%  
65 0.9% 7%  
66 6% 6%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 3% 100%  
58 2% 97%  
59 54% 95% Median
60 7% 41%  
61 6% 34% Last Result
62 17% 28%  
63 2% 11%  
64 7% 9%  
65 1.4% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 2% 99.8%  
58 2% 98%  
59 7% 95%  
60 2% 88%  
61 64% 86% Median
62 16% 21%  
63 4% 6%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 3% 100% Last Result
58 56% 97% Median
59 3% 42%  
60 9% 38%  
61 9% 29%  
62 11% 20%  
63 8% 9%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 5% 99.9%  
56 52% 95% Median
57 5% 43%  
58 5% 38% Last Result
59 12% 33%  
60 11% 21%  
61 7% 10%  
62 2% 3%  
63 1.0% 1.3%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100% Last Result
55 56% 99.9% Median
56 5% 44%  
57 1.0% 38%  
58 10% 37%  
59 14% 27%  
60 10% 13%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.5% 1.0%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 51% 100% Median
51 8% 48%  
52 3% 40% Last Result
53 10% 37%  
54 6% 27%  
55 8% 21%  
56 12% 13%  
57 0.8% 1.3%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 3% 100%  
45 0.1% 97%  
46 55% 97% Median
47 4% 42%  
48 15% 39%  
49 4% 24%  
50 1.5% 20%  
51 11% 19%  
52 3% 7%  
53 4% 4%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 9% 99.5%  
43 10% 91%  
44 6% 81%  
45 53% 75% Median
46 16% 21%  
47 0.8% 6% Last Result
48 5% 5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 4% 99.3%  
37 55% 96% Median
38 9% 40%  
39 8% 32%  
40 19% 23%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100% Last Result
29 3% 99.7%  
30 63% 97% Median
31 7% 33%  
32 5% 26%  
33 16% 21%  
34 0.7% 5%  
35 4% 4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 2% 100%  
29 4% 98%  
30 13% 94%  
31 7% 81%  
32 70% 74% Median
33 3% 4%  
34 0.4% 0.9%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations