Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 12–15 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 26.0% 24.9–27.1% 24.6–27.5% 24.3–27.7% 23.8–28.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.7% 11.8–13.5% 11.6–13.8% 11.4–14.0% 11.0–14.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.0% 11.2–12.9% 11.0–13.1% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.6–10.1% 8.4–10.3% 8.2–10.5% 7.9–10.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.6% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.5% 5.7–7.7% 5.5–8.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2%
Volt Europa 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 39 39–42 38–42 38–42 37–43
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 18–20 17–20 17–21 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 19 17–20 17–20 17–20 15–21
Democraten 66 19 15 14–15 13–15 13–15 11–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 14 12–14 12–14 12–15 10–15
GroenLinks 14 10 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Socialistische Partij 14 11 8–11 8–11 8–12 8–13
ChristenUnie 5 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Forum voor Democratie 2 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 1–4
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Volt Europa 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.8%  
38 8% 99.1%  
39 65% 91% Median
40 2% 26%  
41 7% 24%  
42 17% 17%  
43 0.7% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 6% 100%  
18 8% 94%  
19 7% 85%  
20 76% 79% Last Result, Median
21 2% 3%  
22 1.2% 1.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.4%  
17 11% 98.8%  
18 7% 88%  
19 71% 81% Last Result, Median
20 9% 10%  
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.9% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.1%  
13 5% 98%  
14 23% 94%  
15 69% 70% Median
16 0.5% 1.5%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.5% 100%  
11 2% 99.5%  
12 17% 98%  
13 5% 81%  
14 72% 76% Median
15 4% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 64% 100% Median
11 2% 36%  
12 18% 34%  
13 16% 16%  
14 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 12% 100%  
9 1.0% 88%  
10 15% 87%  
11 68% 71% Median
12 0.9% 3%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 68% 99.7% Median
5 13% 32% Last Result
6 19% 19%  
7 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 16% 99.9%  
5 83% 84% Last Result, Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100% Last Result
3 72% 99.9% Median
4 22% 28%  
5 6% 6%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 9% 99.9%  
3 90% 91% Last Result, Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 11% 99.9%  
3 89% 89% Last Result, Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 16% 98%  
3 77% 82% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 75% 75% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 71% 100% Last Result, Median
1 29% 29%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 91 100% 91–92 90–93 88–94 87–94
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 87 100% 87–91 87–92 87–93 86–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 84 100% 83–86 83–86 82–86 82–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 80–83 80–83 80–83 79–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 77 98% 77–79 77–79 76–80 74–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 78 98.9% 76–79 76–80 76–80 75–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 72 4% 71–72 71–73 70–76 68–76
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 73 0.3% 71–74 71–75 71–75 70–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 73 1.0% 72–74 72–75 71–75 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 68 0% 66–68 66–70 65–70 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 65 0% 65–66 65–68 65–68 63–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 64 0% 64–66 64–67 64–67 63–67
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 61–65 61–67 61–67 59–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 62 0% 62–64 62–65 62–65 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 61 0% 61–64 61–64 61–64 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 58 0% 58–60 58–60 58–61 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 53 0% 52–54 52–55 51–57 48–57
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 48 0% 43–48 43–48 43–48 42–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 37 0% 35–39 35–40 35–40 32–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 34 0% 31–34 31–34 31–34 30–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 33 0% 29–34 29–34 29–34 27–34

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0.4% 100%  
87 1.0% 99.6%  
88 2% 98.6%  
89 0.3% 97%  
90 5% 96%  
91 74% 91% Median
92 11% 17%  
93 2% 6%  
94 4% 4%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.3% 99.9%  
86 0.9% 99.6%  
87 64% 98.7% Median
88 0.9% 35%  
89 2% 34%  
90 6% 32% Last Result
91 18% 26%  
92 4% 8%  
93 4% 4%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 2% 99.6%  
83 7% 97%  
84 69% 90% Median
85 8% 21%  
86 11% 13%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 1.2% 1.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.2% 99.6%  
80 10% 99.5%  
81 69% 90% Median
82 3% 21%  
83 16% 18%  
84 0.1% 2%  
85 0.9% 2%  
86 1.1% 1.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 1.5% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 98%  
76 2% 98% Last Result, Majority
77 64% 96% Median
78 12% 32%  
79 16% 20%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.8% 0.9%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 99.6%  
76 11% 98.9% Majority
77 3% 88%  
78 65% 84% Median
79 14% 20%  
80 5% 6%  
81 0.6% 1.3%  
82 0.6% 0.7%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.7% 99.8%  
69 1.1% 99.2%  
70 2% 98%  
71 16% 97%  
72 73% 81% Median
73 4% 8%  
74 0.2% 4%  
75 0.2% 4%  
76 4% 4% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 2% 99.8%  
71 11% 98%  
72 5% 87%  
73 69% 81% Median
74 2% 12%  
75 9% 9%  
76 0.1% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.9%  
70 1.1% 99.3%  
71 2% 98% Last Result
72 8% 97%  
73 79% 89% Median
74 5% 10%  
75 4% 5%  
76 0.1% 1.0% Majority
77 0.8% 0.9%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.5% 100%  
63 1.0% 99.5%  
64 1.0% 98%  
65 0.2% 98%  
66 9% 97%  
67 4% 89%  
68 75% 84% Median
69 2% 9%  
70 7% 7%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100% Last Result
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 1.3% 99.4%  
65 72% 98% Median
66 17% 26%  
67 4% 9%  
68 5% 5%  
69 0.7% 0.8%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.7%  
63 0.6% 99.7%  
64 66% 99.1% Median
65 9% 33%  
66 18% 24%  
67 6% 6%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.6% 99.9%  
60 1.3% 99.3%  
61 16% 98%  
62 66% 82% Median
63 1.0% 16%  
64 4% 15%  
65 4% 11%  
66 0.1% 7% Last Result
67 7% 7%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100% Last Result
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.7%  
61 1.0% 99.4%  
62 72% 98% Median
63 11% 26%  
64 9% 15%  
65 5% 7%  
66 1.3% 1.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.8%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.6% 99.7%  
61 65% 99.1% Median
62 8% 34%  
63 15% 26%  
64 10% 11%  
65 1.4% 2%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0% 99.8%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.3%  
57 1.4% 98.9%  
58 72% 98% Median
59 15% 26%  
60 7% 11%  
61 4% 4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.5% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.5%  
50 0.6% 99.3%  
51 2% 98.8%  
52 8% 97%  
53 69% 89% Median
54 12% 20%  
55 3% 7%  
56 0.3% 4%  
57 4% 4%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 1.0% 100%  
43 11% 98.9%  
44 5% 88%  
45 2% 83%  
46 3% 81%  
47 6% 78% Last Result
48 72% 72% Median
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.5% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.4% Last Result
34 1.5% 99.4%  
35 16% 98%  
36 5% 82%  
37 65% 77% Median
38 1.1% 12%  
39 4% 11%  
40 7% 7%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.8%  
31 11% 98%  
32 9% 87%  
33 3% 78%  
34 74% 75% Median
35 0.1% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 1.0%  
37 0.8% 0.8%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.5% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
29 11% 99.4%  
30 5% 88%  
31 5% 83%  
32 3% 79%  
33 65% 76% Median
34 11% 11%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations