Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 14–15 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 24.4% 22.8–26.2% 22.3–26.7% 21.9–27.2% 21.1–28.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 13.0% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.7% 8.6–10.9% 8.3–11.3% 8.0–11.6% 7.5–12.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.6% 6.7–8.8% 6.4–9.1% 6.2–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 6.9% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.9–5.2% 2.6–5.7%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.9% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.1–3.3%
DENK 2.1% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.2%
50Plus 3.1% 1.2% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 36 35–40 34–40 33–40 32–41
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 21 20–23 19–24 19–26 18–26
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 19 18–22 18–22 17–22 17–23
Democraten 66 19 14 14–17 14–17 13–17 12–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 10–16 10–16 10–16 9–16
GroenLinks 14 10 9–12 8–12 8–12 8–13
Socialistische Partij 14 10 8–11 8–11 8–12 8–14
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–8
Forum voor Democratie 2 3 2–4 2–5 2–5 1–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–5
50Plus 4 1 1–2 1–3 0–3 0–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 1–3 1–3 0–3 0–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.5% 100%  
33 4% 99.5% Last Result
34 0.4% 95%  
35 6% 95%  
36 48% 89% Median
37 9% 41%  
38 5% 32%  
39 1.3% 28%  
40 26% 26%  
41 0.1% 0.5%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.8% 99.7%  
19 8% 98.9%  
20 2% 91% Last Result
21 55% 88% Median
22 3% 34%  
23 21% 31%  
24 5% 10%  
25 0.3% 4%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.8%  
17 3% 99.7%  
18 32% 97%  
19 16% 65% Last Result, Median
20 23% 49%  
21 9% 26%  
22 17% 18%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.7%  
13 3% 99.1%  
14 47% 96% Median
15 30% 49%  
16 7% 19%  
17 11% 11%  
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9% Last Result
10 35% 98%  
11 21% 63% Median
12 11% 42%  
13 12% 30%  
14 0.7% 18%  
15 0.1% 17%  
16 17% 17%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 9% 99.6%  
9 12% 91%  
10 37% 78% Median
11 26% 41%  
12 15% 15%  
13 0.2% 0.6%  
14 0% 0.3% Last Result
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 29% 99.8%  
9 17% 71%  
10 5% 54% Median
11 45% 48%  
12 1.2% 3%  
13 0.8% 2%  
14 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 30% 99.6% Last Result
6 30% 69% Median
7 16% 39%  
8 23% 23%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 9% 99.8%  
5 37% 91% Last Result
6 51% 54% Median
7 0.7% 2%  
8 1.4% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 17% 99.4% Last Result
3 56% 82% Median
4 21% 26%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 12% 99.6%  
3 84% 87% Last Result, Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 43% 98%  
3 53% 55% Last Result, Median
4 1.0% 2%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 56% 96% Median
2 31% 39%  
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 33% 96%  
2 50% 63% Median
3 13% 13%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 88 100% 87–91 86–91 86–92 83–96
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 85 100% 84–90 84–90 84–91 83–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 84 100% 81–88 81–88 81–88 77–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 99.3% 78–85 78–85 78–85 75–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 78 98% 76–81 76–81 76–82 72–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 77 64% 74–79 74–79 74–82 73–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 71 3% 69–73 69–73 69–76 67–78
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 2% 69–74 69–74 68–75 67–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 68 0.3% 65–72 65–72 65–72 63–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 64 0% 61–67 61–67 60–68 60–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 63 0% 60–65 60–65 60–67 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 64 0% 60–66 60–66 59–66 59–69
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 60–65 60–65 58–65 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 58–64 58–64 57–65 56–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 60 0% 57–62 57–62 57–63 55–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 57 0% 54–58 54–58 54–60 51–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 46–52 44–52 44–52 44–53
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 46 0% 43–50 43–50 42–50 41–51
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 37 0% 34–41 34–41 34–41 33–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 34 0% 33–36 33–37 31–37 30–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 32 0% 28–36 28–36 28–36 27–36

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.3% 100%  
83 0.6% 99.7%  
84 0.1% 99.1%  
85 0.4% 99.0% Last Result
86 4% 98.6% Median
87 14% 94%  
88 33% 81%  
89 26% 48%  
90 0.7% 21%  
91 18% 20%  
92 0.8% 3%  
93 0.1% 2%  
94 0.2% 2%  
95 0.3% 2%  
96 2% 2%  
97 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.3% 100%  
83 0.7% 99.7%  
84 12% 98.9%  
85 38% 87% Median
86 3% 50%  
87 2% 46%  
88 3% 45%  
89 4% 41%  
90 34% 37% Last Result
91 0.6% 3%  
92 2% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.5% 100% Last Result
78 0.2% 99.4%  
79 0.2% 99.3%  
80 0.6% 99.1%  
81 11% 98.5%  
82 1.2% 87% Median
83 25% 86%  
84 14% 61%  
85 26% 47%  
86 6% 21%  
87 3% 15%  
88 11% 12%  
89 0% 0.4%  
90 0.3% 0.3%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0.6% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.3% Majority
77 0.9% 99.1%  
78 10% 98%  
79 1.2% 88% Median
80 26% 87%  
81 13% 60%  
82 23% 47%  
83 4% 24%  
84 8% 20%  
85 12% 13%  
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.7% 100% Last Result
73 0.6% 99.3%  
74 0.2% 98.7%  
75 1.0% 98.6%  
76 11% 98% Median, Majority
77 34% 86%  
78 4% 52%  
79 28% 48%  
80 1.2% 20%  
81 15% 19%  
82 3% 3%  
83 0.5% 0.6%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.6%  
73 0.9% 99.5%  
74 11% 98.6%  
75 24% 88% Median
76 8% 64% Last Result, Majority
77 14% 56%  
78 14% 41%  
79 23% 27%  
80 1.0% 4%  
81 0.3% 3%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.5%  
68 1.2% 99.0%  
69 11% 98% Median
70 24% 87%  
71 15% 63% Last Result
72 21% 49%  
73 23% 27%  
74 0.8% 4%  
75 0.9% 4%  
76 0.8% 3% Majority
77 0.1% 2%  
78 1.5% 2%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 2% 99.8%  
68 2% 98%  
69 10% 96%  
70 0.4% 86% Median
71 33% 86%  
72 22% 53%  
73 18% 31%  
74 11% 14%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 0.9% 2% Majority
77 0.6% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.4%  
65 12% 99.2%  
66 8% 88% Median
67 2% 79%  
68 46% 77%  
69 3% 32%  
70 9% 29%  
71 0.6% 20%  
72 17% 19%  
73 0.1% 2%  
74 0.1% 2%  
75 1.5% 2%  
76 0.3% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 5% 99.8%  
61 15% 95% Last Result
62 1.5% 80% Median
63 10% 79%  
64 18% 68%  
65 27% 50%  
66 12% 23%  
67 8% 11%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.8% 1.2%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.2%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 1.0% 99.3%  
60 19% 98%  
61 11% 79% Median
62 18% 69%  
63 1.3% 51%  
64 36% 49%  
65 11% 14%  
66 0.3% 3%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.2% 0.5%  
69 0% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 4% 99.8%  
60 12% 95%  
61 1.3% 83% Last Result, Median
62 5% 82%  
63 18% 77%  
64 14% 58%  
65 25% 45%  
66 18% 20%  
67 0.2% 2%  
68 0.3% 2%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 1.0% 99.8%  
58 3% 98.9%  
59 0.1% 96%  
60 40% 96% Median
61 15% 56%  
62 0.9% 42%  
63 5% 41%  
64 12% 36%  
65 23% 24%  
66 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.8%  
57 4% 99.4%  
58 11% 96% Last Result
59 7% 85% Median
60 9% 78%  
61 19% 68%  
62 22% 50%  
63 17% 27%  
64 8% 11%  
65 0.7% 3%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
55 0.5% 99.8%  
56 0.2% 99.3%  
57 16% 99.1%  
58 14% 83% Median
59 18% 68%  
60 1.4% 51%  
61 31% 50%  
62 16% 19%  
63 0.7% 3%  
64 0.1% 2%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
53 0.2% 99.4%  
54 10% 99.2%  
55 21% 89% Median
56 18% 68%  
57 5% 50%  
58 41% 46%  
59 1.3% 4%  
60 0.8% 3%  
61 0.1% 2%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 5% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 95%  
46 15% 95%  
47 11% 79% Median
48 2% 68%  
49 22% 66%  
50 23% 44%  
51 0.6% 22%  
52 19% 21%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.1% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.8% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 23% 97%  
44 2% 74% Median
45 4% 73%  
46 30% 68%  
47 13% 38% Last Result
48 6% 25%  
49 0.6% 20%  
50 18% 19%  
51 1.5% 2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.8% Last Result
34 24% 98%  
35 10% 73%  
36 4% 63% Median
37 23% 59%  
38 15% 37%  
39 0.9% 21%  
40 3% 20%  
41 18% 18%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 2% 99.9%  
31 1.0% 98%  
32 0.6% 97%  
33 34% 96% Median
34 22% 63%  
35 18% 41%  
36 17% 24%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 2% Last Result
39 0.7% 0.8%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.9%  
28 23% 99.1% Last Result
29 12% 76%  
30 4% 64% Median
31 5% 59%  
32 22% 54%  
33 12% 33%  
34 1.1% 20%  
35 2% 19%  
36 17% 17%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations