Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 19–20 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.2% 21.2–23.2% 21.0–23.5% 20.7–23.7% 20.3–24.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.0% 14.2–15.9% 14.0–16.1% 13.8–16.3% 13.4–16.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.7% 11.0–12.5% 10.8–12.7% 10.6–12.9% 10.3–13.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.5% 7.8–9.2% 7.7–9.4% 7.5–9.5% 7.2–9.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.5% 7.8–9.2% 7.7–9.4% 7.5–9.5% 7.2–9.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 5.9% 5.3–6.5% 5.2–6.6% 5.1–6.8% 4.8–7.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.9% 5.3–6.5% 5.2–6.6% 5.1–6.8% 4.8–7.1%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.6% 4.1–5.1% 4.0–5.2% 3.9–5.4% 3.7–5.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.6% 4.1–5.1% 4.0–5.2% 3.9–5.4% 3.7–5.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.6% 2.3–3.0% 2.2–3.1% 2.1–3.2% 1.9–3.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.3% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7%
Partij voor de Toekomst 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.3% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.3% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7%
50Plus 3.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9%
Bij1 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Volt Europa 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 36 32–39 32–39 32–39 31–39
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 22 21–24 21–26 21–26 21–26
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 17–19 17–20 16–22 15–22
Democraten 66 19 14 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 12–15 11–15 11–15 11–16
GroenLinks 14 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
Socialistische Partij 14 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
ChristenUnie 5 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 4 4–5 3–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Partij voor de Toekomst 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
50Plus 4 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
DENK 3 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Bij1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Code Oranje 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Volt Europa 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 2% 100%  
32 19% 98%  
33 2% 79% Last Result
34 10% 77%  
35 2% 67%  
36 29% 65% Median
37 7% 36%  
38 2% 29%  
39 26% 26%  
40 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100% Last Result
21 24% 99.9%  
22 32% 76% Median
23 6% 44%  
24 31% 38%  
25 2% 7%  
26 5% 5%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.9% 100%  
16 2% 99.0%  
17 55% 97% Median
18 31% 43%  
19 5% 11% Last Result
20 3% 7%  
21 1.0% 4%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 6% 99.9%  
12 36% 93%  
13 6% 58%  
14 51% 52% Median
15 0.8% 0.8%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 7% 100%  
12 36% 93%  
13 7% 57% Median
14 23% 50%  
15 25% 27%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.3% 99.9%  
8 11% 98.7%  
9 50% 87% Median
10 29% 37%  
11 8% 8%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.3% 100%  
7 27% 98.7%  
8 39% 72% Median
9 27% 33%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 28% 100% Last Result
6 19% 72%  
7 31% 53% Median
8 22% 22%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9% Last Result
6 34% 98%  
7 14% 63% Median
8 48% 50%  
9 1.4% 1.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 4% 100%  
4 86% 95% Median
5 5% 9%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 10% 99.9%  
3 86% 90% Last Result, Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Toekomst

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Toekomst page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 100%  
2 56% 99.1% Median
3 43% 43%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 86% 99.9% Median
3 13% 14%  
4 1.0% 1.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 34% 99.4%  
2 65% 65% Median
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 10% 100%  
2 89% 90% Median
3 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Last Result, Median
1 37% 37%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 58% 59% Median
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 45% 45%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 86 100% 85–89 83–89 82–89 81–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 82 100% 78–88 78–88 78–88 78–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 80–84 79–85 79–85 78–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 80 81% 75–85 75–85 75–85 75–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 76 51% 71–81 71–81 71–81 71–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 74 2% 71–74 69–74 69–75 69–77
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 68 0% 64–71 64–71 64–72 63–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 68 0% 63–69 63–69 63–69 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 67 0% 63–69 63–69 62–69 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 62 0% 58–65 58–65 58–66 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 63 0% 59–65 57–65 57–65 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 56–64 56–64 56–64 55–64
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 56–63 56–63 56–63 55–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 55–62 55–62 55–63 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 57 0% 53–61 53–61 53–61 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 53 0% 49–57 49–57 49–57 49–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 51 0% 46–51 46–51 46–51 45–51
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 42–46 42–46 42–46 40–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 39 0% 35–39 34–40 34–41 34–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 31 0% 30–32 28–34 28–34 28–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 30–31 29–33 29–33 27–34

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 2% 99.9%  
82 1.3% 98%  
83 1.4% 96%  
84 5% 95%  
85 33% 90% Last Result
86 28% 57%  
87 2% 30% Median
88 2% 27%  
89 24% 25%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0% 0.3%  
92 0.3% 0.3%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 21% 100%  
79 0.3% 79%  
80 1.3% 79%  
81 26% 77%  
82 2% 52% Median
83 8% 50%  
84 0.6% 41%  
85 5% 41%  
86 5% 36%  
87 4% 31%  
88 27% 27%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.9% 99.9%  
79 8% 99.0%  
80 23% 91%  
81 6% 68%  
82 2% 63%  
83 28% 61% Median
84 24% 33%  
85 8% 8%  
86 0.4% 0.4%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100% Last Result
75 19% 99.9%  
76 2% 81% Majority
77 0.8% 79%  
78 26% 78%  
79 0.7% 52% Median
80 9% 51%  
81 0.8% 42%  
82 2% 41%  
83 10% 39%  
84 3% 29%  
85 26% 27%  
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 19% 100%  
72 2% 81% Last Result
73 0.2% 79%  
74 27% 79%  
75 2% 52% Median
76 8% 51% Majority
77 5% 42%  
78 4% 37%  
79 6% 34%  
80 2% 28%  
81 26% 26%  
82 0% 0.3%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 5% 100%  
70 2% 95%  
71 23% 92%  
72 2% 70%  
73 6% 68%  
74 58% 61% Median
75 1.0% 3%  
76 2% 2% Last Result, Majority
77 0.7% 0.7%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.9%  
64 29% 99.3%  
65 2% 70%  
66 2% 68%  
67 12% 67%  
68 5% 55% Median
69 3% 50%  
70 25% 47%  
71 19% 22%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 0% 2%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.3% 100% Last Result
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 21% 99.4%  
64 0.8% 79%  
65 11% 78%  
66 7% 67% Median
67 2% 60%  
68 31% 58%  
69 26% 27%  
70 0.7% 0.7%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 2% 100%  
62 1.3% 98%  
63 20% 97%  
64 4% 77%  
65 4% 72%  
66 2% 68%  
67 30% 66% Median
68 8% 37%  
69 28% 28%  
70 0.4% 0.4%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 2% 100%  
58 21% 98%  
59 1.1% 77%  
60 1.2% 76%  
61 4% 74% Last Result
62 26% 70% Median
63 10% 44%  
64 4% 34%  
65 27% 30%  
66 3% 3%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 5% 99.9%  
58 2% 95%  
59 4% 93%  
60 23% 89%  
61 5% 66% Last Result
62 7% 61%  
63 28% 54% Median
64 0.6% 25%  
65 25% 25%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 2% 100%  
56 21% 98%  
57 2% 77% Last Result
58 0.4% 76%  
59 4% 75%  
60 26% 71% Median
61 10% 45%  
62 2% 35%  
63 3% 34%  
64 30% 30%  
65 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 1.3% 99.9%  
56 30% 98.7%  
57 3% 69%  
58 1.1% 66%  
59 14% 65%  
60 2% 51% Median
61 2% 48%  
62 20% 47%  
63 25% 27%  
64 0% 2%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 21% 99.7%  
56 3% 79%  
57 0.8% 76%  
58 3% 75% Last Result
59 28% 72% Median
60 12% 45%  
61 2% 33%  
62 27% 31%  
63 4% 4%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 21% 99.8%  
54 2% 79% Last Result
55 0.8% 76%  
56 3% 76%  
57 27% 73% Median
58 8% 46%  
59 7% 38%  
60 0.4% 31%  
61 30% 30%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 21% 100%  
50 2% 79%  
51 1.2% 77%  
52 2% 76% Last Result
53 32% 74% Median
54 8% 42%  
55 1.3% 34%  
56 5% 32%  
57 27% 27%  
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 28% 99.4%  
47 3% 72%  
48 9% 68%  
49 6% 59% Median
50 2% 53%  
51 51% 51%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.9%  
41 1.0% 98.9%  
42 40% 98%  
43 2% 58%  
44 2% 56% Median
45 25% 54%  
46 28% 29%  
47 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
48 0.5% 0.5%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100% Last Result
34 6% 99.9%  
35 27% 93%  
36 7% 66%  
37 4% 59% Median
38 3% 55%  
39 44% 52%  
40 4% 8%  
41 2% 4%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 8% 99.9% Last Result
29 1.4% 92%  
30 33% 91% Median
31 23% 58%  
32 27% 35%  
33 2% 8%  
34 6% 7%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.7% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.3%  
29 5% 98.8%  
30 33% 94%  
31 51% 60% Median
32 2% 9%  
33 6% 7%  
34 0.5% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations