Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 22–24 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 26.6% | 25.0–28.3% | 24.5–28.9% | 24.1–29.3% | 23.4–30.1% | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 11.3% | 10.2–12.6% | 9.9–13.0% | 9.6–13.3% | 9.1–13.9% | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 11.3% | 10.2–12.6% | 9.9–13.0% | 9.6–13.3% | 9.1–13.9% | 
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.4–11.9% | 7.9–12.5% | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.7–9.8% | 7.4–10.2% | 7.2–10.5% | 6.7–11.0% | 
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.7–9.4% | 6.5–9.7% | 6.1–10.3% | 
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.8–7.7% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.3–8.2% | 4.9–8.8% | 
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.6% | 3.8–5.9% | 3.6–6.1% | 3.3–6.6% | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% | 
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.6–4.1% | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.2–3.4% | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% | 
| DENK | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% | 
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% | 
| Volt Europa | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 39 | 38–41 | 38–43 | 38–43 | 37–45 | 
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 17 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 18 | 16–21 | 14–21 | 14–21 | 14–21 | 
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 13 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 
| GroenLinks | 14 | 11 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–15 | 
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 7–13 | 
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 6 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 
| 50Plus | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 
| DENK | 3 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 
| Volt Europa | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 45% | 98% | |
| 39 | 3% | 53% | Median | 
| 40 | 3% | 50% | |
| 41 | 41% | 47% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 43 | 4% | 6% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 18% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 82% | |
| 16 | 7% | 81% | |
| 17 | 50% | 74% | Median | 
| 18 | 2% | 24% | |
| 19 | 14% | 22% | |
| 20 | 7% | 8% | Last Result | 
| 21 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 3% | 95% | |
| 16 | 3% | 92% | |
| 17 | 5% | 89% | |
| 18 | 54% | 84% | Median | 
| 19 | 16% | 29% | Last Result | 
| 20 | 2% | 13% | |
| 21 | 11% | 12% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | 
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 38% | 88% | Median | 
| 14 | 2% | 49% | |
| 15 | 3% | 47% | |
| 16 | 34% | 45% | |
| 17 | 10% | 10% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result | 
| 20 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 38% | 98.5% | |
| 13 | 45% | 61% | Median | 
| 14 | 13% | 16% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | 
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 49% | 93% | Median | 
| 12 | 25% | 45% | |
| 13 | 19% | 20% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 1.2% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | 
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 9 | 41% | 98% | |
| 10 | 24% | 56% | Median | 
| 11 | 30% | 33% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result | 
| 15 | 0% | 0% | 
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 18% | 98.8% | |
| 7 | 38% | 81% | Median | 
| 8 | 20% | 43% | |
| 9 | 22% | 23% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | 
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 16% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 23% | 84% | Last Result | 
| 6 | 39% | 61% | Median | 
| 7 | 2% | 23% | |
| 8 | 19% | 21% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | 
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 43% | 97% | Last Result | 
| 5 | 18% | 54% | Median | 
| 6 | 36% | 36% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | 
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 27% | 97% | Last Result | 
| 3 | 69% | 70% | Median | 
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | 
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 21% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 78% | 79% | Median | 
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 0% | 0% | 
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 36% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 46% | 64% | Median | 
| 3 | 17% | 18% | Last Result | 
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 1 | 88% | 90% | Median | 
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | 
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 1 | 77% | 96% | Median | 
| 2 | 19% | 19% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 85 | 92 | 100% | 91–95 | 91–96 | 90–96 | 87–97 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 90 | 90 | 100% | 90–93 | 90–95 | 88–95 | 87–95 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie | 76 | 79 | 97% | 79–82 | 78–83 | 75–83 | 74–83 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 81 | 82% | 75–83 | 75–83 | 75–83 | 75–84 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 79 | 78% | 73–81 | 73–81 | 73–81 | 73–83 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 80 | 76 | 52% | 71–78 | 71–78 | 71–78 | 69–79 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid | 72 | 76 | 56% | 70–78 | 70–78 | 70–78 | 70–80 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 71 | 72 | 1.5% | 71–74 | 71–75 | 68–75 | 67–77 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 72 | 0.7% | 68–73 | 68–73 | 67–73 | 65–76 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 67 | 0.1% | 64–70 | 64–71 | 64–73 | 64–73 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 61 | 66 | 0.1% | 65–70 | 63–70 | 63–70 | 61–71 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie | 58 | 65 | 0% | 63–68 | 62–68 | 61–68 | 59–69 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 66 | 66 | 0% | 62–67 | 62–67 | 62–67 | 58–69 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 62 | 0% | 60–64 | 59–64 | 58–64 | 57–66 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 54 | 61 | 0% | 59–62 | 58–62 | 57–63 | 55–64 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 59 | 0% | 56–59 | 55–59 | 54–60 | 54–62 | 
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 53 | 0% | 50–54 | 50–56 | 50–56 | 49–58 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 47 | 46 | 0% | 44–47 | 44–47 | 42–48 | 41–51 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 33 | 38 | 0% | 37–43 | 36–43 | 35–43 | 34–43 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 | 38 | 33 | 0% | 31–35 | 30–35 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 28 | 31 | 0% | 29–35 | 27–35 | 27–35 | 25–35 | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 86 | 0% | 100% | |
| 87 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 90 | 2% | 98.5% | Median | 
| 91 | 16% | 97% | |
| 92 | 39% | 81% | |
| 93 | 31% | 42% | |
| 94 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 95 | 6% | 11% | |
| 96 | 4% | 5% | |
| 97 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 88 | 2% | 98% | Median | 
| 89 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 90 | 48% | 96% | Last Result | 
| 91 | 2% | 49% | |
| 92 | 18% | 46% | |
| 93 | 22% | 28% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 95 | 5% | 5% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 97% | Last Result, Majority | 
| 77 | 0.7% | 97% | Median | 
| 78 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 79 | 63% | 95% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 31% | |
| 81 | 19% | 30% | |
| 82 | 2% | 11% | |
| 83 | 9% | 9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 18% | 99.6% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 82% | Majority | 
| 77 | 19% | 81% | Last Result | 
| 78 | 5% | 62% | |
| 79 | 2% | 58% | Median | 
| 80 | 2% | 55% | |
| 81 | 40% | 53% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 83 | 12% | 13% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 18% | 99.7% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 82% | Last Result | 
| 75 | 3% | 81% | |
| 76 | 21% | 78% | Majority | 
| 77 | 1.1% | 57% | Median | 
| 78 | 2% | 56% | |
| 79 | 40% | 54% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 81 | 12% | 13% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 71 | 37% | 98.7% | |
| 72 | 7% | 62% | Median | 
| 73 | 0.4% | 55% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 55% | |
| 75 | 3% | 55% | |
| 76 | 19% | 52% | Majority | 
| 77 | 13% | 33% | |
| 78 | 20% | 20% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result | 
| 81 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 18% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 81% | Last Result | 
| 73 | 1.3% | 80% | |
| 74 | 22% | 79% | Median | 
| 75 | 2% | 57% | |
| 76 | 38% | 56% | Majority | 
| 77 | 4% | 18% | |
| 78 | 12% | 14% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 2% | 100% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 96% | Median | 
| 71 | 14% | 95% | Last Result | 
| 72 | 54% | 81% | |
| 73 | 15% | 28% | |
| 74 | 5% | 13% | |
| 75 | 6% | 8% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 1.5% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 68 | 18% | 97% | |
| 69 | 15% | 79% | |
| 70 | 13% | 64% | Median | 
| 71 | 0.8% | 51% | |
| 72 | 37% | 51% | |
| 73 | 12% | 14% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.7% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 11% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 88% | Median | 
| 66 | 34% | 87% | |
| 67 | 37% | 53% | |
| 68 | 3% | 16% | |
| 69 | 2% | 13% | |
| 70 | 5% | 11% | |
| 71 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 73 | 4% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.6% | Last Result | 
| 62 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 65 | 37% | 93% | |
| 66 | 6% | 56% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 50% | Median | 
| 68 | 11% | 49% | |
| 69 | 1.5% | 38% | |
| 70 | 36% | 36% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority | 
| 77 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result | 
| 59 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 62 | 3% | 97% | |
| 63 | 23% | 93% | |
| 64 | 19% | 70% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 51% | Median | 
| 66 | 12% | 49% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 38% | |
| 68 | 37% | 37% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 62 | 37% | 98% | Median | 
| 63 | 6% | 61% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 55% | |
| 65 | 3% | 55% | |
| 66 | 30% | 51% | Last Result | 
| 67 | 19% | 21% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.7% | Last Result | 
| 58 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 59 | 2% | 97% | |
| 60 | 16% | 95% | |
| 61 | 24% | 79% | |
| 62 | 5% | 55% | Median | 
| 63 | 0.5% | 50% | |
| 64 | 48% | 49% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result | 
| 55 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 59 | 39% | 95% | |
| 60 | 6% | 56% | Median | 
| 61 | 1.0% | 50% | |
| 62 | 47% | 49% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0% | 99.9% | Last Result | 
| 53 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 56 | 19% | 95% | |
| 57 | 19% | 75% | Median | 
| 58 | 5% | 56% | |
| 59 | 48% | 51% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | 
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 33% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 3% | 66% | |
| 52 | 13% | 64% | Median | 
| 53 | 6% | 51% | |
| 54 | 36% | 45% | |
| 55 | 3% | 9% | |
| 56 | 4% | 6% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 43 | 2% | 97% | |
| 44 | 41% | 95% | Median | 
| 45 | 1.2% | 54% | |
| 46 | 23% | 53% | |
| 47 | 26% | 30% | Last Result | 
| 48 | 2% | 4% | |
| 49 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result | 
| 34 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | |
| 36 | 5% | 96% | |
| 37 | 19% | 91% | |
| 38 | 36% | 72% | Median | 
| 39 | 22% | 36% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 13% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 43 | 11% | 11% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 30 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 31 | 41% | 95% | Median | 
| 32 | 0.7% | 54% | |
| 33 | 12% | 53% | |
| 34 | 23% | 40% | |
| 35 | 16% | 18% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result | 
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | 
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 27 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 95% | Last Result | 
| 29 | 7% | 93% | |
| 30 | 19% | 86% | |
| 31 | 51% | 68% | Median | 
| 32 | 3% | 16% | |
| 33 | 2% | 14% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 35 | 11% | 12% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Public
 - Commissioner(s): —
 - Fieldwork period: 22–24 February 2021
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1131
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 2.51%