Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 26–27 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.7–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 16.0% 15.1–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.6% 11.9–13.4% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.1–14.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Bij1 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Volt Europa 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 34 34 34 34 33–35
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 25 25 25–27 25–27 24–27
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 19 19 19–20 19–20 19–20
Democraten 66 19 12 12 12 11–12 11–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 12 12–13 12–14 12–14
GroenLinks 14 8 8 8 8 8–10
Socialistische Partij 14 9 9 9 9 9–10
ChristenUnie 5 8 8 7–8 6–8 6–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 7 7 7 6–7
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 5 5 5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2 2 1–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
50Plus 4 2 2 2 2 1–2
DENK 3 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bij1 0 1 1 1 1 1
Code Oranje 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Volt Europa 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
34 98% 99.2% Median
35 1.3% 2%  
36 0% 0.4%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 93% 98% Median
26 0% 6%  
27 6% 6%  
28 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 94% 99.7% Last Result, Median
20 6% 6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 4% 100%  
12 94% 96% Median
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.3%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.1% 99.8%  
12 94% 99.7% Median
13 1.3% 6%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 98% 99.9% Median
9 0.4% 2%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 97% 99.8% Median
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100% Last Result
6 5% 99.7%  
7 3% 95%  
8 93% 93% Median
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 2% 100%  
7 98% 98% Median
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.8% 100%  
4 1.3% 99.2%  
5 98% 98% Median
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100%  
2 97% 98.9% Median
3 1.3% 1.5% Last Result
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 94% 94% Median
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100%  
2 94% 94% Median
3 0% 0% Last Result

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 99.7% Median
2 0% 0%  

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 85 100% 85 85–86 85–88 84–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 83 100% 83 83–84 83–86 82–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 85 100% 85 85 85 83–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 81 100% 81 80–81 79–81 79–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 78 99.7% 78 78–80 78–81 78–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 73 0.1% 73 72–73 71–73 71–75
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 68 0% 68 68 68–69 68–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 65 0% 65 65–67 65–68 64–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 65 0% 65 65 65 65–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 62 0% 62 62 62–63 60–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 60 0% 60 60–61 60–61 57–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 60 60–61 60–61 58–61
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 59 59 59 59–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 58 58–59 58–59 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 58 58–59 58–59 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 53 0% 53 53–54 53–54 51–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 46 0% 46 46–47 46–48 44–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 43 43–45 43–45 43–46
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 39 0% 39 39 39–40 37–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 31 0% 31 31–32 31–34 31–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 31 31 31 31–33

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.3% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 94% 99.2% Median
86 0.8% 6%  
87 0.1% 5%  
88 5% 5%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.7%  
81 0.1% 99.6%  
82 0.5% 99.5%  
83 93% 99.1% Median
84 1.1% 6%  
85 0.4% 5%  
86 4% 4%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.4% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.6%  
84 0.1% 99.5%  
85 98% 99.4% Last Result, Median
86 0.1% 2%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 4% 100%  
80 0.7% 96%  
81 93% 95% Median
82 0.1% 2%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 0.1% 1.2%  
85 1.1% 1.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100% Last Result
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.7% Majority
77 0.1% 99.6%  
78 93% 99.6% Median
79 1.2% 7%  
80 0.7% 6%  
81 5% 5%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.4% 100%  
71 4% 99.6%  
72 0.7% 95%  
73 92% 94% Median
74 0.4% 2%  
75 1.5% 2%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 97% 99.8% Median
69 0.8% 3%  
70 0.1% 2%  
71 0.5% 2%  
72 1.3% 1.4%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.5%  
65 93% 99.2% Median
66 0.7% 7%  
67 1.2% 6%  
68 4% 5%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.4% 100%  
64 0% 99.6%  
65 97% 99.6% Median
66 0.1% 2%  
67 0.4% 2%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.4% 100%  
59 0% 99.6%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 0.7% 99.2% Last Result
62 94% 98.5% Median
63 4% 5%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.5%  
58 0.8% 99.3% Last Result
59 0.1% 98%  
60 92% 98% Median
61 6% 6%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.4% 100% Last Result
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 0.8% 99.3%  
60 92% 98.5% Median
61 6% 6%  
62 0.1% 0.4%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 98% 99.8% Median
60 0.2% 2%  
61 0.5% 2%  
62 1.1% 1.4%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100% Last Result
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 0.8% 99.3%  
57 0.1% 98.5%  
58 92% 98% Median
59 4% 6%  
60 1.5% 2%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.6%  
58 92% 99.4% Median
59 5% 7%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0% 0.6% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.4%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.3% Last Result
53 93% 99.2% Median
54 4% 6%  
55 1.3% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.4%  
57 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.5%  
46 93% 99.3% Median
47 2% 7%  
48 4% 5%  
49 0.1% 0.4%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 93% 99.8% Median
44 0.8% 7%  
45 6% 6%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
48 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 0.7% 99.4%  
39 94% 98.7% Median
40 4% 5%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 93% 99.7% Median
32 2% 7%  
33 0.1% 5%  
34 4% 4%  
35 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 98% 100% Median
32 0.3% 2%  
33 1.5% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations