Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 1–2 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.5% 22.4–24.5% 22.1–24.8% 21.9–25.1% 21.4–25.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.8% 11.1–12.7% 10.9–12.9% 10.7–13.1% 10.3–13.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.2% 10.5–12.1% 10.3–12.3% 10.1–12.5% 9.8–12.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.4% 8.7–10.2% 8.5–10.4% 8.4–10.6% 8.0–11.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.1% 7.5–8.8% 7.3–9.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.8–9.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.5% 6.9–8.2% 6.7–8.4% 6.6–8.6% 6.3–8.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.2% 5.7–6.9% 5.5–7.0% 5.4–7.2% 5.1–7.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.9% 3.5–4.4% 3.3–4.6% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.7% 3.3–4.2% 3.2–4.4% 3.1–4.5% 2.9–4.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.2% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–3.9% 2.4–4.2%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.6% 2.2–3.0% 2.1–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 1.9–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.8% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.2% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5%
50Plus 3.1% 1.6% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.3%
Volt Europa 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 37 33–38 33–39 33–39 33–40
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 17–21 17–21 17–21 16–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–20 15–20 15–20 14–20
Democraten 66 19 15 12–16 12–16 12–16 11–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–14 10–14 10–14 10–16
GroenLinks 14 12 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–14
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–8
ChristenUnie 5 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 3–7
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
50Plus 4 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Volt Europa 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 10% 99.6% Last Result
34 13% 89%  
35 18% 77%  
36 7% 59%  
37 40% 52% Median
38 6% 12%  
39 5% 7%  
40 1.1% 1.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 1.3% 99.8%  
17 35% 98%  
18 22% 64% Median
19 8% 42%  
20 23% 34% Last Result
21 11% 11%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.9% 100%  
15 11% 99.1%  
16 24% 88%  
17 31% 64% Median
18 19% 33%  
19 4% 15% Last Result
20 10% 10%  
21 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 15% 98%  
13 16% 83%  
14 18% 68%  
15 20% 50% Median
16 29% 30%  
17 0.8% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 5% 100%  
11 10% 95%  
12 45% 84% Median
13 24% 39%  
14 14% 16%  
15 0.4% 1.1%  
16 0.7% 0.7%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 4% 100%  
10 9% 96%  
11 31% 88%  
12 49% 57% Median
13 7% 8%  
14 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 5% 100%  
8 20% 95%  
9 38% 75% Median
10 34% 37%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 25% 96% Last Result
6 63% 71% Median
7 8% 8%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 15% 98%  
5 38% 84% Last Result, Median
6 36% 46%  
7 9% 9%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 2% 100%  
4 33% 98%  
5 48% 65% Median
6 17% 18%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 26% 99.2% Last Result
4 62% 73% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 58% 97% Median
3 37% 39% Last Result
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 74% 91% Median
3 15% 16%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 22% 100%  
2 42% 78% Median
3 36% 36%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 12% 100%  
2 74% 88% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 85 100% 82–88 82–88 82–88 81–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 84 100% 82–87 82–87 82–87 81–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 80 99.3% 78–83 78–83 77–83 75–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 76 69% 74–79 74–79 74–80 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 72 16% 70–76 70–76 70–76 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 72 2% 70–74 70–74 68–75 67–76
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 0.1% 68–72 66–72 66–72 65–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 67 0% 65–70 65–70 65–70 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 62–68 62–70 62–70 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 64 0% 61–67 61–68 61–69 60–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 63 0% 61–65 61–66 60–66 59–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 62 0% 58–65 58–65 58–66 58–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 60 0% 57–63 57–65 57–65 56–65
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 58–63 58–64 58–64 56–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 54–61 54–62 54–62 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 53 0% 50–56 50–57 50–57 50–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 45–51 45–52 45–52 45–53
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 44 0% 41–46 41–47 41–47 39–47
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 32–38 32–38 32–38 31–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 32 0% 28–34 28–35 28–35 28–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 30 0% 27–32 27–32 27–32 26–33

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.3% 100%  
81 0.4% 99.7%  
82 10% 99.3%  
83 14% 90%  
84 23% 76%  
85 8% 53% Last Result
86 14% 44% Median
87 16% 30%  
88 12% 14%  
89 2% 2%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.3% 0.3%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 1.1% 99.8%  
82 15% 98.7%  
83 33% 83%  
84 11% 50%  
85 7% 40%  
86 13% 32% Median
87 19% 19%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1% Last Result
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.7% 100%  
76 0.7% 99.3% Majority
77 2% 98.5% Last Result
78 13% 96%  
79 14% 83%  
80 37% 69%  
81 4% 33% Median
82 18% 29%  
83 10% 11%  
84 0.8% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 1.4% 99.5%  
73 0.7% 98%  
74 13% 98% Last Result
75 15% 84%  
76 22% 69% Majority
77 25% 47% Median
78 9% 23%  
79 10% 14%  
80 4% 4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.6%  
70 13% 99.5%  
71 23% 86%  
72 15% 63%  
73 7% 48%  
74 23% 41% Median
75 2% 18%  
76 14% 16% Last Result, Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 2% 99.2%  
69 1.3% 97%  
70 35% 96%  
71 10% 61%  
72 26% 51% Last Result, Median
73 6% 25%  
74 16% 20%  
75 2% 4%  
76 2% 2% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 4% 99.1%  
67 1.2% 95%  
68 16% 93%  
69 27% 78%  
70 12% 50% Median
71 21% 39%  
72 16% 18%  
73 0.6% 1.4%  
74 0.2% 0.7%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.4% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 15% 99.3%  
66 24% 85%  
67 23% 60%  
68 6% 37%  
69 9% 31% Median
70 22% 23%  
71 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
72 0.4% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
62 20% 99.7%  
63 3% 79%  
64 16% 77%  
65 7% 61%  
66 12% 54% Median
67 29% 42%  
68 3% 13%  
69 4% 10%  
70 5% 6%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 2% 99.9%  
61 13% 98% Last Result
62 11% 85%  
63 18% 74%  
64 29% 55%  
65 3% 27% Median
66 14% 24%  
67 3% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 4% 4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 1.1% 99.9%  
60 1.3% 98.8%  
61 22% 97% Last Result
62 24% 76%  
63 32% 51%  
64 7% 19% Median
65 7% 13%  
66 6% 6%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100% Last Result
58 12% 99.7%  
59 10% 88%  
60 6% 78%  
61 11% 72%  
62 33% 61%  
63 9% 29% Median
64 0.9% 20%  
65 14% 19%  
66 4% 4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.7%  
57 12% 99.1%  
58 5% 87% Last Result
59 23% 82%  
60 27% 59%  
61 16% 32% Median
62 6% 16%  
63 2% 10%  
64 3% 8%  
65 5% 6%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.4% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 2% 99.3%  
58 16% 98%  
59 17% 82%  
60 13% 65%  
61 12% 51% Median
62 21% 40%  
63 9% 19%  
64 9% 10%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.3% 100%  
54 11% 99.6% Last Result
55 2% 89%  
56 11% 87%  
57 12% 76%  
58 32% 64%  
59 9% 32% Median
60 13% 23%  
61 3% 10%  
62 7% 7%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 11% 99.5%  
51 11% 89%  
52 14% 77% Last Result
53 26% 63%  
54 15% 37% Median
55 11% 22%  
56 4% 11%  
57 6% 7%  
58 1.1% 1.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0.3% 100%  
45 19% 99.7%  
46 8% 81%  
47 18% 73%  
48 1.2% 55%  
49 15% 54% Median
50 17% 39%  
51 15% 22%  
52 6% 7%  
53 0.6% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.4%  
41 12% 98.7%  
42 16% 86%  
43 11% 70%  
44 22% 59% Median
45 22% 37%  
46 5% 15%  
47 9% 10% Last Result
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.8%  
32 10% 99.2%  
33 15% 89% Last Result
34 22% 75% Median
35 20% 53%  
36 13% 32%  
37 8% 20%  
38 9% 11%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 13% 99.8%  
29 14% 86%  
30 11% 72%  
31 9% 61%  
32 9% 52% Median
33 27% 43%  
34 8% 17%  
35 9% 9%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.3% 99.8%  
27 11% 98%  
28 15% 87% Last Result
29 22% 72% Median
30 26% 50%  
31 12% 24%  
32 11% 12%  
33 0.8% 0.9%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations