Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 1–2 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 24.2% 23.0–25.4% 22.6–25.8% 22.3–26.1% 21.8–26.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.1% 12.2–14.1% 11.9–14.4% 11.7–14.6% 11.3–15.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.2% 10.3–12.1% 10.1–12.4% 9.9–12.6% 9.5–13.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.5–10.2% 8.3–10.4% 8.1–10.6% 7.7–11.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.6% 7.8–9.4% 7.6–9.7% 7.5–9.9% 7.1–10.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.7% 7.0–8.5% 6.8–8.7% 6.6–9.0% 6.3–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.6–5.1% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.1% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.9% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 1.2% 1.0–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Volt Europa 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 38 37–39 37–39 37–39 35–39
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 19–20 19–20 19–20 18–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 16–18 16–18 16–18 16–19
Democraten 66 19 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
GroenLinks 14 13 13–14 13–14 13–14 11–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 11–12 11–12 11–12 10–13
Socialistische Partij 14 8 8–10 8–10 8–11 8–11
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
ChristenUnie 5 5 5 5 5 4–5
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 5 5 5 4–5
DENK 3 3 3 3 3 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
50Plus 4 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 1.2% 99.9%  
36 1.1% 98.7%  
37 45% 98%  
38 16% 53% Median
39 37% 37%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.8% 100%  
19 45% 99.1%  
20 53% 54% Last Result, Median
21 0.4% 2%  
22 1.3% 1.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 37% 99.6%  
17 17% 63% Median
18 45% 46%  
19 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 16% 99.9%  
14 37% 83% Median
15 46% 47%  
16 0.9% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.6% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.4%  
13 62% 98% Median
14 37% 37% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.9% 100%  
11 62% 99.1% Median
12 36% 37%  
13 0.9% 1.0%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 81% 99.9% Median
9 0.3% 19%  
10 16% 19%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100% Last Result
6 83% 99.8% Median
7 17% 17%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 97% 98% Last Result, Median
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 98% 98% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.5% 100%  
3 98% 98.5% Last Result, Median
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 17% 100%  
3 83% 83% Last Result, Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 37% 100%  
2 62% 63% Median
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 63% 99.5% Median
2 36% 36%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 55% 99.9% Median
2 45% 45%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 88 100% 86–88 86–88 86–88 83–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 86 100% 84–86 84–86 84–86 83–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 82 100% 82–83 82–83 82–83 79–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 80 99.7% 79–80 79–80 79–80 77–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 75 0.4% 74–75 74–75 74–75 72–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 74 0.9% 73–75 73–75 73–75 71–76
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 69 0% 69–70 69–70 69–70 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 69 0% 68–70 68–70 68–70 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 66–67 66–67 66–67 64–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 64 0% 64–65 64–65 63–65 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 63 0% 62–65 62–65 62–65 61–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 63 0% 62–63 62–63 62–63 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 62 0% 61–62 61–62 61–62 57–62
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 59–62 59–62 59–62 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 60 0% 60 60 59–60 56–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 55 0% 55 55 54–55 51–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 49 0% 48–51 48–51 48–51 47–51
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 41–44 41–44 41–44 41–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 33–34 33–34 33–34 31–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 30 0% 30–33 30–33 30–33 29–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 28–29 28–29 28–29 27–32

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.6% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.2%  
85 1.3% 99.1%  
86 16% 98%  
87 0.3% 82% Median
88 81% 81%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0% 99.8%  
83 2% 99.8%  
84 16% 98%  
85 0.9% 82% Last Result, Median
86 81% 82%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100% Last Result
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.2% 99.3%  
81 1.3% 99.1%  
82 62% 98%  
83 36% 36% Median
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0.3% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.7% Majority
77 0.3% 99.5%  
78 1.3% 99.2%  
79 45% 98%  
80 52% 53% Median
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
73 0.2% 99.3%  
74 46% 99.1%  
75 52% 53% Median
76 0% 0.4% Majority
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.6%  
72 2% 99.5%  
73 16% 98%  
74 36% 82% Median
75 45% 46%  
76 0.7% 0.9% Last Result, Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.3% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.6% Median
69 52% 99.5%  
70 45% 48%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.3% 1.3%  
73 0.4% 1.0%  
74 0.1% 0.6%  
75 0.6% 0.6%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.9% 99.4%  
68 17% 98.5%  
69 36% 82% Median
70 45% 46%  
71 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
72 0.8% 0.8%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 1.4% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 98%  
66 61% 98% Median
67 36% 37%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0% 99.5%  
61 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
62 0.6% 99.3%  
63 1.3% 98.7%  
64 52% 97%  
65 45% 46% Median
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.8% 99.9% Last Result
62 17% 99.1%  
63 45% 82% Median
64 0.1% 37%  
65 37% 37%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.4% 100% Last Result
58 0.1% 99.6%  
59 0% 99.5%  
60 1.2% 99.4%  
61 0.6% 98%  
62 16% 98%  
63 81% 81% Median
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
59 0.5% 99.3%  
60 0.4% 98.8%  
61 37% 98%  
62 61% 61% Median
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0% 99.7%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 16% 99.3%  
60 1.0% 83% Median
61 36% 82%  
62 45% 46%  
63 0% 0.7%  
64 0.6% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0.4% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.5%  
57 0.2% 99.4%  
58 1.5% 99.2%  
59 0.8% 98%  
60 97% 97% Median
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0% 99.5% Last Result
53 1.2% 99.4%  
54 1.1% 98%  
55 96% 97% Median
56 0.8% 1.0%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.8%  
47 1.2% 99.8%  
48 46% 98.7%  
49 17% 53% Median
50 0.1% 36%  
51 36% 36%  
52 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 16% 99.6%  
42 36% 84% Median
43 2% 48%  
44 45% 46%  
45 0.8% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.8% 100%  
32 2% 99.2%  
33 52% 98% Last Result, Median
34 45% 46%  
35 0.2% 1.1%  
36 0.3% 0.9%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.8%  
30 52% 99.3%  
31 0.4% 48% Median
32 2% 47%  
33 45% 46%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 1.4% 99.9%  
28 52% 98.6% Last Result, Median
29 45% 46%  
30 0.1% 1.0%  
31 0.3% 0.9%  
32 0.6% 0.6%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations