Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 5–6 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.3% 20.4–22.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.9–22.8% 19.4–23.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 16.0% 15.1–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Volt Europa 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Bij1 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 35 31–35 30–35 30–35 30–36
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 26 24–26 23–26 22–26 22–27
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 16–18 16–18 16–19 15–19
Democraten 66 19 15 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 11–14
GroenLinks 14 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–11
Socialistische Partij 14 7 7–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 3 2–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
50Plus 4 2 2 2 1–2 1–3
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Volt Europa 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Bij1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Code Oranje 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 5% 100%  
31 14% 95%  
32 6% 81%  
33 14% 76% Last Result
34 2% 62%  
35 59% 60% Median
36 0.6% 0.6%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.1% 100%  
22 4% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 96%  
24 14% 95%  
25 5% 81%  
26 74% 76% Median
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 69% 99.5% Median
17 17% 30%  
18 8% 13%  
19 4% 5% Last Result
20 0% 0.5%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 14% 99.4%  
14 15% 86%  
15 70% 71% Median
16 0.7% 1.0%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0.1% 100%  
11 18% 99.8%  
12 71% 82% Median
13 11% 12%  
14 1.0% 1.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 15% 99.8%  
9 66% 85% Median
10 18% 20%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 55% 100% Median
8 12% 45%  
9 4% 33%  
10 28% 28%  
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 11% 100%  
7 58% 89% Median
8 30% 31%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 34% 99.9%  
7 59% 66% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.6% 100%  
4 7% 99.4%  
5 79% 92% Median
6 13% 14%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 73% 100% Median
3 16% 27% Last Result
4 11% 11%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 13% 100%  
3 75% 87% Median
4 1.3% 12%  
5 11% 11%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 95% 97% Median
3 1.3% 1.3%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 19% 99.6%  
2 79% 80% Median
3 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 64% 68% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 41%  
2 0% 0%  

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 85 100% 81–85 81–86 81–87 79–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 84 100% 80–84 80–84 80–84 80–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 82 99.6% 79–82 78–83 78–83 77–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 82 100% 77–82 77–82 77–82 77–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 77 74% 71–77 71–77 71–77 71–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 73 0.1% 70–73 68–74 68–74 68–75
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 66 0% 66–70 66–70 66–71 64–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 66 0% 62–66 62–67 62–68 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 63 0% 58–63 58–66 58–67 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 60 0% 58–60 58–62 57–64 56–64
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 58–61 58–61 58–62 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 57–62 57–62 57–62 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 56–58 56–61 55–62 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 55–58 55–59 54–60 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 53–56 53–57 53–58 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 51 0% 47–51 47–53 47–54 46–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 47 0% 42–47 42–48 42–48 42–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 42–45 42–46 42–46 41–47
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 35–37 35–38 35–38 33–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 31 0% 30–32 30–33 30–33 29–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 27–31 27–32 27–32 27–33

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.4% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.6%  
80 0.3% 99.5%  
81 17% 99.1%  
82 6% 83%  
83 12% 77%  
84 0.9% 64%  
85 58% 63% Last Result, Median
86 0.6% 5%  
87 5% 5%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 13% 99.7%  
81 5% 87%  
82 1.1% 81%  
83 18% 80%  
84 60% 62% Median
85 0.7% 2%  
86 0.1% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 1.0%  
88 0.8% 0.8%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.4% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.6% Majority
77 0.4% 99.5%  
78 6% 99.1%  
79 12% 93%  
80 17% 82%  
81 3% 65%  
82 56% 62% Median
83 5% 6%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 100% Majority
77 13% 99.7%  
78 0.3% 87%  
79 11% 86%  
80 7% 76%  
81 11% 69%  
82 56% 57% Median
83 0.1% 1.1%  
84 1.0% 1.0%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 11% 100%  
72 0.5% 89% Last Result
73 3% 88%  
74 10% 85%  
75 1.1% 75%  
76 16% 74% Majority
77 57% 58% Median
78 0.1% 1.0%  
79 0.8% 0.9%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.4% 100%  
67 0% 99.6%  
68 5% 99.6%  
69 0.1% 94%  
70 14% 94%  
71 15% 80%  
72 3% 65%  
73 57% 62% Median
74 5% 6%  
75 0.5% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.6% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.4%  
66 55% 99.0% Median
67 0.2% 44%  
68 13% 44%  
69 16% 30%  
70 12% 15%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.8% 0.8%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.7% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.3%  
62 18% 99.1%  
63 16% 81%  
64 1.3% 65%  
65 3% 64%  
66 55% 61% Median
67 0.6% 5%  
68 4% 5%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 12% 100%  
59 2% 88%  
60 5% 86%  
61 6% 82% Last Result
62 13% 75%  
63 55% 63% Median
64 1.4% 7%  
65 0.7% 6%  
66 1.0% 5%  
67 4% 4%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 2% 100%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 16% 97%  
59 17% 81%  
60 57% 64% Median
61 2% 7% Last Result
62 1.0% 6%  
63 0.5% 5%  
64 4% 4%  
65 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.3%  
58 11% 98.9%  
59 61% 88% Median
60 14% 26%  
61 10% 13%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.5% 0.6%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 21% 99.6%  
58 13% 78%  
59 2% 65%  
60 0.8% 62%  
61 2% 62% Last Result
62 59% 59% Median
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 2% 100%  
55 1.0% 98%  
56 16% 97%  
57 17% 82% Last Result
58 57% 64% Median
59 0.5% 7%  
60 1.2% 7%  
61 1.3% 6%  
62 4% 4%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 2% 100%  
54 0.9% 98%  
55 17% 97%  
56 5% 81%  
57 13% 76%  
58 57% 63% Last Result, Median
59 0.7% 5%  
60 5% 5%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 2% 100%  
52 0.8% 98%  
53 17% 98%  
54 4% 81% Last Result
55 13% 76%  
56 57% 63% Median
57 2% 6%  
58 5% 5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.5% 100%  
47 13% 99.5%  
48 6% 87%  
49 5% 81%  
50 13% 75%  
51 56% 63% Median
52 2% 7% Last Result
53 0.5% 5%  
54 5% 5%  
55 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 12% 100% Last Result
43 11% 88%  
44 3% 77%  
45 12% 74%  
46 2% 63%  
47 55% 61% Median
48 5% 5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.6%  
42 27% 98.9%  
43 60% 72% Median
44 1.0% 12%  
45 6% 11%  
46 4% 5%  
47 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
48 0% 0.4%  
49 0.4% 0.4%  
50 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.6% 100% Last Result
34 0.1% 99.4%  
35 68% 99.3% Median
36 7% 32%  
37 18% 25%  
38 6% 8%  
39 1.4% 1.5%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.6%  
30 12% 99.1%  
31 75% 87% Median
32 7% 12%  
33 5% 5%  
34 0.3% 0.8%  
35 0% 0.5%  
36 0% 0.4%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 12% 99.8%  
28 62% 88% Last Result, Median
29 13% 26%  
30 2% 13%  
31 5% 11%  
32 5% 6%  
33 0.5% 0.5%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations