Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 5–8 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.6% 21.5–23.6% 21.2–23.9% 21.0–24.2% 20.5–24.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.8% 11.0–12.7% 10.8–12.9% 10.6–13.1% 10.2–13.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.0% 9.3–10.8% 9.1–11.1% 8.9–11.2% 8.6–11.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.9% 9.2–10.7% 9.0–11.0% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.5% 7.9–9.3% 7.7–9.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.5–8.2% 6.4–8.4% 6.1–8.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.4% 5.9–7.1% 5.7–7.3% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.8% 3.3–4.3% 3.2–4.5% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.5% 3.1–4.0% 2.9–4.2% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.9% 2.5–3.4% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.5% 2.1–2.9% 2.0–3.1% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4%
Volt Europa 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2%
DENK 2.1% 1.9% 1.6–2.3% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7%
50Plus 3.1% 1.8% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.3%
Bij1 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2%
BoerBurgerBeweging 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8%
Piratenpartij 0.3% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 34 34–36 33–37 33–37 33–39
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 16 16–19 16–19 16–19 16–20
Democraten 66 19 15 14–16 13–18 13–18 12–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 12–15 12–15 11–15 11–15
GroenLinks 14 10 10–12 10–12 10–13 9–14
Socialistische Partij 14 11 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
Volt Europa 0 4 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
50Plus 4 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 3 2–3 1–3 1–4 1–4
Bij1 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
BoerBurgerBeweging 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Code Oranje 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 5% 99.9% Last Result
34 66% 95% Median
35 18% 29%  
36 3% 11%  
37 6% 8%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.6% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 60% 99.7% Median
17 10% 39%  
18 11% 29%  
19 16% 18%  
20 2% 2% Last Result
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.0% 100%  
13 7% 99.0%  
14 5% 92%  
15 61% 87% Median
16 18% 26%  
17 0.8% 8%  
18 7% 7%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.9%  
14 19% 99.2%  
15 22% 81%  
16 4% 59%  
17 55% 55% Median
18 0.2% 0.6%  
19 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 4% 100%  
12 8% 96%  
13 54% 88% Median
14 15% 34%  
15 19% 19%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 50% 99.4% Median
11 38% 49%  
12 7% 11%  
13 2% 4%  
14 2% 2% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 18% 97%  
10 17% 79%  
11 58% 62% Median
12 4% 4%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100%  
5 28% 95% Last Result
6 67% 67% Median
7 0.5% 0.9%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 5% 99.9%  
5 80% 95% Last Result, Median
6 14% 16%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.9% 100%  
4 82% 99.1% Median
5 16% 17%  
6 1.2% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 9% 100%  
3 13% 91% Last Result
4 28% 78% Median
5 49% 49%  
6 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 39% 97%  
4 58% 58% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 9% 100%  
3 67% 91% Last Result, Median
4 22% 23%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 72% 98% Median
3 26% 26%  
4 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 34% 93%  
3 55% 59% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 82% 82% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0% 0%  

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 1.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 85 100% 81–87 81–87 79–87 79–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 82 100% 78–84 77–85 77–86 77–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 63% 74–77 74–77 73–80 72–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 71 3% 70–73 70–75 70–76 68–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 72 0.2% 67–73 66–73 66–74 66–74
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 0.1% 68–72 68–73 68–73 67–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 67 0% 66–70 66–70 65–71 64–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 66 0% 62–68 61–68 61–68 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 62–66 61–67 59–67 59–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 64 0% 62–65 61–65 60–65 60–69
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 58–63 57–63 57–63 56–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 62 0% 59–62 59–62 59–62 58–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 57–60 56–60 56–61 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 57 0% 55–58 55–58 55–59 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 53–55 52–56 52–57 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 51 0% 48–51 48–52 48–53 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 47 0% 47–50 45–51 45–51 45–54
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 42–46 41–47 41–47 39–47
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 33–36 32–36 32–36 31–37
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 32 0% 29–33 27–33 27–33 26–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 30 0% 27–30 27–30 27–31 26–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 4% 100%  
80 0.1% 96%  
81 7% 96%  
82 8% 89%  
83 1.3% 81%  
84 3% 79%  
85 55% 77% Last Result, Median
86 2% 22%  
87 19% 19%  
88 0.7% 0.7%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 7% 100%  
78 4% 93%  
79 0.3% 89%  
80 0.5% 89%  
81 7% 88%  
82 57% 82% Median
83 10% 24%  
84 9% 14%  
85 1.5% 5%  
86 4% 4%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 1.3% 100%  
73 3% 98.7%  
74 13% 96%  
75 21% 83% Median
76 53% 63% Majority
77 5% 10% Last Result
78 0.8% 5%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 1.0% 100%  
69 0.8% 99.0%  
70 15% 98%  
71 56% 83% Median
72 9% 27%  
73 9% 18%  
74 4% 10% Last Result
75 2% 5%  
76 1.4% 3% Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 7% 100%  
67 4% 93%  
68 1.1% 89%  
69 4% 88%  
70 2% 84%  
71 10% 82%  
72 61% 73% Median
73 9% 11%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 1.0% 99.7%  
68 12% 98.7%  
69 5% 86%  
70 6% 81%  
71 7% 75%  
72 59% 68% Median
73 7% 10%  
74 0.3% 2%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 1.0% 100%  
65 4% 99.0%  
66 12% 95%  
67 60% 83% Median
68 12% 24%  
69 1.1% 11%  
70 7% 10%  
71 0.7% 3%  
72 0.5% 2% Last Result
73 2% 2%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 7% 100%  
62 4% 93%  
63 4% 89%  
64 2% 85%  
65 1.3% 83%  
66 65% 82% Median
67 5% 16%  
68 10% 11%  
69 0.9% 1.1%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 4% 100%  
60 0.1% 96%  
61 4% 96% Last Result
62 60% 92% Median
63 5% 32%  
64 2% 28%  
65 3% 25%  
66 14% 23%  
67 7% 8%  
68 0.7% 0.7%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 4% 100%  
61 5% 96% Last Result
62 5% 91%  
63 7% 87%  
64 59% 79% Median
65 19% 20%  
66 0.3% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.7%  
68 0% 0.5%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 1.1% 99.9%  
57 4% 98.8%  
58 7% 95%  
59 10% 87%  
60 4% 77%  
61 51% 73% Median
62 3% 23%  
63 17% 20%  
64 0.3% 2%  
65 0.1% 2%  
66 0% 2% Last Result
67 2% 2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 0% 99.7%  
58 2% 99.7%  
59 17% 98%  
60 17% 80%  
61 10% 64% Last Result, Median
62 51% 54%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.8%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 1.1% 99.7%  
56 9% 98.6%  
57 17% 90% Last Result
58 19% 73%  
59 1.3% 55% Median
60 50% 53%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0% 0.8%  
63 0.6% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.3% 100%  
54 1.1% 99.7%  
55 15% 98.6%  
56 13% 84%  
57 49% 71% Median
58 18% 22% Last Result
59 2% 4%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.8%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 1.3% 100%  
52 8% 98.7%  
53 7% 91%  
54 13% 84% Last Result
55 65% 71% Median
56 1.1% 6%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.6%  
60 0.4% 0.4%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 1.1% 100%  
48 15% 98.9%  
49 0.2% 84%  
50 20% 84%  
51 58% 63% Median
52 3% 6% Last Result
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 0.8%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 8% 100%  
46 0.8% 92%  
47 54% 91% Median
48 3% 38%  
49 18% 35%  
50 10% 17%  
51 5% 6%  
52 0.3% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.7%  
54 0.5% 0.5%  
55 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 1.0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.0%  
41 4% 98.7%  
42 12% 95%  
43 6% 83%  
44 7% 77%  
45 50% 70% Median
46 10% 20%  
47 9% 10% Last Result
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.6%  
32 9% 99.5%  
33 11% 91% Last Result
34 16% 80%  
35 3% 64%  
36 59% 61% Median
37 2% 2%  
38 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 1.0% 100%  
27 8% 99.0%  
28 0.4% 91%  
29 12% 91%  
30 3% 79%  
31 10% 75%  
32 53% 65% Median
33 12% 12%  
34 0.2% 0.7%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.7% 99.8%  
27 10% 99.1%  
28 11% 89% Last Result
29 17% 79%  
30 59% 62% Median
31 3% 3%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations