Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 5–8 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 24.8% 23.6–26.0% 23.2–26.4% 22.9–26.7% 22.4–27.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.3% 12.4–14.3% 12.1–14.6% 11.9–14.9% 11.5–15.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.1% 10.3–12.1% 10.0–12.3% 9.8–12.6% 9.4–13.0%
Democraten 66 12.2% 9.1% 8.3–10.0% 8.1–10.3% 7.9–10.5% 7.6–10.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.7% 7.0–8.5% 6.8–8.7% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.4% 6.7–8.2% 6.5–8.4% 6.3–8.6% 6.0–9.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.7% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.5–5.0% 3.4–5.2% 3.2–5.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.5–5.0% 3.4–5.2% 3.2–5.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.9% 1.6–2.3% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.8%
50Plus 3.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
Volt Europa 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 40 38–43 38–43 37–43 36–43
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 21 19–21 18–21 18–22 18–23
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–18 15–18 15–18 15–20
Democraten 66 19 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
GroenLinks 14 11 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 10–13 10–13 9–13 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–12 8–12 8–12 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–7 6–7 6–8 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Forum voor Democratie 2 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
50Plus 4 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.5%  
37 3% 98.9%  
38 18% 96%  
39 10% 77%  
40 49% 68% Median
41 4% 18%  
42 0.1% 15%  
43 15% 15%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 5% 99.9%  
19 29% 95%  
20 13% 66% Last Result
21 50% 53% Median
22 2% 3%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 13% 99.7%  
16 16% 87%  
17 48% 71% Median
18 21% 23%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.8% 99.7%  
13 47% 98.9%  
14 35% 52% Median
15 16% 17%  
16 0.6% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 44% 98%  
11 25% 54% Median
12 9% 29%  
13 19% 20%  
14 1.4% 1.5% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 4% 100% Last Result
10 31% 96%  
11 6% 65%  
12 47% 60% Median
13 12% 13%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 5% 100%  
9 22% 94%  
10 24% 73% Median
11 6% 49%  
12 43% 43%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9% Last Result
6 82% 98% Median
7 13% 16%  
8 2% 3%  
9 1.1% 1.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 25% 99.6% Last Result
6 4% 75%  
7 70% 71% Median
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100% Last Result
3 50% 99.9% Median
4 46% 50%  
5 2% 4%  
6 1.2% 1.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 71% 99.8% Median
3 28% 28% Last Result
4 0.7% 0.8%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 68% 100% Median
2 31% 32%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 57% 100% Median
2 42% 43%  
3 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 26% 100%  
2 74% 74% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 62% 99.9% Median
2 37% 38%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 87 100% 86–90 86–91 86–91 82–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 88 100% 87–89 86–89 84–89 83–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 83 100% 80–84 80–85 79–85 79–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 99.9% 77–82 77–83 77–83 77–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 76 83% 74–79 74–79 73–79 71–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 78 81% 73–78 73–79 73–79 73–79
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 70 0% 67–71 67–72 67–74 67–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 70 0% 68–73 68–73 68–73 65–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 69 0% 66–69 66–69 65–69 64–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 65 0% 63–67 62–67 62–67 60–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 63 0% 62–66 62–66 62–66 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 62 0% 60–65 60–65 60–65 59–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 61 0% 59–64 59–64 59–64 58–65
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 58 0% 57–62 57–62 57–63 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 60 0% 57–63 57–63 57–63 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 57 0% 53–59 53–59 53–59 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 52 0% 49–53 49–53 48–53 47–53
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 40–43 40–44 39–45 39–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 32–35 32–36 32–37 32–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 30 0% 30–32 30–33 30–33 28–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 26–29 26–30 26–30 26–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.3% 100%  
82 0.6% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 99.1%  
84 0.2% 98.7%  
85 0.7% 98%  
86 43% 98%  
87 15% 55%  
88 1.0% 40% Median
89 13% 39%  
90 20% 26% Last Result
91 5% 6%  
92 0.4% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.9% 99.8%  
84 2% 98.9%  
85 2% 97% Last Result
86 1.2% 95%  
87 15% 94%  
88 56% 79%  
89 20% 22% Median
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0% 1.5%  
92 1.4% 1.4%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0% 99.9% Last Result
78 0% 99.9%  
79 4% 99.8%  
80 12% 96%  
81 1.4% 84%  
82 2% 82%  
83 56% 80% Median
84 16% 24%  
85 7% 7%  
86 0.4% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100% Last Result
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9% Majority
77 15% 99.7%  
78 1.0% 84%  
79 2% 83%  
80 15% 81%  
81 44% 66% Median
82 15% 23%  
83 7% 7%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.9% 99.7%  
72 0.3% 98.9%  
73 1.1% 98.6%  
74 14% 97%  
75 0.6% 84%  
76 44% 83% Last Result, Majority
77 4% 39% Median
78 18% 35%  
79 16% 18%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 1.4% 1.5%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
73 12% 99.7%  
74 5% 87%  
75 1.4% 82%  
76 11% 81% Majority
77 6% 70%  
78 59% 64% Median
79 5% 6%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 15% 99.6%  
68 4% 84%  
69 15% 80%  
70 44% 65% Median
71 15% 22%  
72 1.3% 6%  
73 1.0% 5%  
74 4% 4%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 1.0% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 98.8%  
67 0.7% 98%  
68 14% 98%  
69 1.4% 84%  
70 43% 82%  
71 16% 39% Last Result, Median
72 5% 22%  
73 17% 17%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 1.4% 99.6%  
65 2% 98%  
66 14% 96%  
67 12% 82%  
68 11% 70%  
69 57% 59% Median
70 2% 2%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.4% Last Result
62 5% 98.8%  
63 14% 94%  
64 6% 80%  
65 47% 75%  
66 12% 27% Median
67 15% 15%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.4% Last Result
62 15% 98.5%  
63 46% 84% Median
64 0.8% 37%  
65 7% 36%  
66 27% 30%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.6% 0.7%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.9% 99.6%  
60 12% 98.7%  
61 7% 86%  
62 43% 79% Median
63 1.1% 37%  
64 19% 36%  
65 15% 17%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
59 15% 99.3%  
60 2% 84%  
61 46% 83% Median
62 1.2% 37%  
63 18% 36%  
64 16% 18%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 16% 99.6%  
58 46% 84%  
59 1.0% 38%  
60 11% 37% Median
61 10% 26%  
62 12% 17%  
63 4% 4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100% Last Result
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.6%  
57 12% 98.9%  
58 3% 87%  
59 5% 84%  
60 42% 79% Median
61 13% 37%  
62 6% 23%  
63 15% 17%  
64 1.5% 2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
53 12% 98.8%  
54 3% 87%  
55 1.1% 84%  
56 6% 83%  
57 51% 77% Median
58 9% 26%  
59 17% 17%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.7%  
48 4% 99.0%  
49 10% 95%  
50 14% 85%  
51 14% 71%  
52 42% 57% Median
53 15% 15%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 3% 99.8%  
40 16% 96%  
41 2% 80%  
42 59% 78%  
43 13% 20% Median
44 2% 7%  
45 4% 4%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1% Last Result
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 15% 99.6%  
33 6% 85% Last Result
34 20% 79%  
35 51% 59% Median
36 5% 8%  
37 0.9% 3%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 1.1% 99.7%  
29 0.4% 98.6%  
30 73% 98%  
31 3% 25% Median
32 16% 22%  
33 6% 7%  
34 0.8% 0.8%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 18% 99.7%  
27 2% 82%  
28 30% 80% Last Result
29 44% 50% Median
30 6% 6%  
31 0.2% 0.6%  
32 0.3% 0.4%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations