Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 6–8 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 26.6% 25.2–28.1% 24.8–28.5% 24.5–28.9% 23.9–29.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.7% 11.6–13.8% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.4% 10.6–14.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.3% 10.4–12.4% 10.1–12.7% 9.9–13.0% 9.4–13.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.6–11.5% 8.2–12.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.6% 7.8–9.6% 7.6–9.9% 7.4–10.1% 7.0–10.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.3% 6.6–8.2% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.7% 5.8–9.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
50Plus 3.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%
Volt Europa 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 41 38–43 37–43 36–44 36–47
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 19 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 16–19 16–19 16–20 15–21
Democraten 66 19 13 13–16 13–17 13–18 12–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 13 11–14 11–15 11–15 9–16
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–15
GroenLinks 14 12 9–14 9–14 9–14 9–15
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 4–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–7 4–8 4–8 4–8
50Plus 4 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Forum voor Democratie 2 3 2–4 2–4 2–5 1–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
DENK 3 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Volt Europa 0 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 3% 100%  
37 2% 97%  
38 23% 94%  
39 7% 72%  
40 6% 65%  
41 16% 59% Median
42 7% 43%  
43 33% 37%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.9%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 5% 99.3%  
18 9% 95%  
19 42% 86% Last Result, Median
20 10% 44%  
21 21% 34%  
22 6% 13%  
23 7% 7%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.6%  
16 14% 98%  
17 15% 84%  
18 8% 69%  
19 58% 61% Median
20 2% 3% Last Result
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.7%  
13 55% 98% Median
14 13% 43%  
15 10% 30%  
16 12% 20%  
17 5% 9%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.1% 100% Last Result
10 0.9% 98.9%  
11 28% 98%  
12 17% 70%  
13 40% 53% Median
14 6% 13%  
15 6% 7%  
16 1.1% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 6% 99.1%  
11 9% 93%  
12 54% 84% Median
13 2% 30%  
14 24% 28% Last Result
15 4% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 26% 100%  
10 2% 74%  
11 18% 72%  
12 38% 54% Median
13 5% 16%  
14 9% 10% Last Result
15 1.0% 1.0%  
16 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 9% 100%  
5 38% 91% Last Result
6 17% 53% Median
7 27% 35%  
8 8% 8%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 37% 99.9%  
5 29% 63% Last Result, Median
6 17% 33%  
7 11% 16%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 57% 99.7% Median
3 36% 43%  
4 7% 7% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 15% 98% Last Result
3 56% 83% Median
4 25% 28%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 26% 99.9%  
2 50% 74% Median
3 23% 24% Last Result
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 74% 75% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 73% 78% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 82% 88% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 92 100% 88–96 88–97 88–97 88–98
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 93 100% 90–95 90–96 90–96 89–100
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 85 99.9% 80–86 78–86 77–86 77–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 80 100% 79–83 79–84 78–84 77–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 82 97% 79–84 76–84 75–84 75–85
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 80 75 37% 74–79 74–79 73–82 71–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 79 89% 75–81 74–81 72–81 72–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 75 23% 72–78 72–78 72–78 71–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 73 10% 70–75 70–76 69–76 68–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 68 0.2% 62–69 62–71 62–71 62–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 69 0% 66–69 64–69 63–70 61–71
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 62 0% 61–67 61–68 61–70 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie 58 66 0% 65–68 62–68 62–68 60–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 66 0% 62–67 61–67 61–68 58–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 64 0% 61–65 59–66 59–66 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 61 0% 58–63 57–64 56–64 54–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 53 0% 49–56 49–56 49–56 49–59
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 45–49 45–51 43–51 42–52
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 37 0% 36–40 35–43 34–43 32–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 34 0% 32–37 32–37 31–37 30–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 32 0% 30–35 30–35 28–36 27–38

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 23% 99.9%  
89 3% 77%  
90 3% 73% Last Result
91 8% 70% Median
92 35% 62%  
93 5% 27%  
94 5% 22%  
95 2% 17%  
96 10% 16%  
97 4% 5%  
98 1.2% 1.5%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Last Result
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.6% 99.9%  
90 20% 99.2%  
91 3% 79%  
92 5% 76% Median
93 46% 71%  
94 8% 26%  
95 8% 17%  
96 8% 10%  
97 0.3% 2%  
98 0.3% 1.3%  
99 0.4% 1.1%  
100 0.5% 0.6%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9% Majority
77 4% 99.9% Last Result
78 1.3% 96%  
79 2% 95%  
80 10% 93%  
81 6% 83%  
82 2% 77%  
83 6% 75%  
84 12% 69% Median
85 23% 57%  
86 33% 34%  
87 0.3% 0.8%  
88 0.5% 0.5%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Last Result, Majority
77 0.9% 99.9%  
78 2% 98.9%  
79 26% 97% Median
80 43% 71%  
81 4% 28%  
82 13% 24%  
83 5% 12%  
84 4% 7%  
85 0.4% 2%  
86 0.5% 2%  
87 1.1% 1.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100% Last Result
75 3% 99.9%  
76 2% 97% Majority
77 2% 95%  
78 0.4% 93%  
79 14% 93%  
80 4% 79%  
81 5% 74%  
82 22% 69% Median
83 12% 47%  
84 34% 35%  
85 0.5% 0.8%  
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.3% 100%  
68 0% 99.7%  
69 0% 99.7%  
70 0% 99.7%  
71 0.9% 99.6%  
72 0.4% 98.8%  
73 2% 98%  
74 37% 96%  
75 23% 60% Median
76 10% 37% Majority
77 1.3% 27%  
78 6% 26%  
79 15% 20%  
80 0.6% 5% Last Result
81 1.1% 4%  
82 3% 3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 3% 99.9% Last Result
73 0.8% 97%  
74 3% 96%  
75 3% 92%  
76 12% 89% Majority
77 4% 77%  
78 22% 73%  
79 3% 51% Median
80 4% 48%  
81 42% 44%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 1.1% 99.7% Last Result
72 24% 98.5%  
73 8% 75% Median
74 6% 67%  
75 37% 60%  
76 6% 23% Majority
77 6% 17%  
78 9% 11%  
79 0.4% 2%  
80 0.2% 2%  
81 0.1% 1.3%  
82 1.2% 1.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 1.5% 99.7%  
69 0.9% 98%  
70 22% 97%  
71 13% 76%  
72 9% 63%  
73 7% 54% Median
74 3% 47%  
75 35% 45%  
76 8% 10% Majority
77 0.6% 1.3%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 20% 100%  
63 2% 80%  
64 2% 78%  
65 1.0% 77%  
66 1.2% 76%  
67 14% 74% Median
68 12% 61%  
69 39% 49%  
70 2% 10%  
71 6% 8%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.7% 1.5%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.5% 100% Last Result
62 0% 99.5%  
63 2% 99.4%  
64 5% 97%  
65 1.2% 93%  
66 5% 91%  
67 14% 86% Median
68 4% 72%  
69 64% 68%  
70 2% 4%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100%  
58 0% 99.7%  
59 0.6% 99.7%  
60 0% 99.1%  
61 23% 99.1%  
62 34% 77%  
63 6% 43% Median
64 10% 37%  
65 3% 27%  
66 6% 23% Last Result
67 8% 17%  
68 5% 9%  
69 0.2% 4%  
70 4% 4%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100% Last Result
59 0% 100%  
60 2% 100%  
61 0% 98%  
62 5% 98%  
63 3% 94%  
64 0.5% 91%  
65 10% 90% Median
66 30% 80%  
67 37% 49%  
68 10% 12%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.5% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.5%  
60 0.1% 99.4%  
61 6% 99.3%  
62 5% 93%  
63 1.2% 88%  
64 8% 87%  
65 11% 79% Median
66 24% 68%  
67 41% 44%  
68 3% 3%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100% Last Result
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0.5% 100%  
58 1.2% 99.5%  
59 4% 98%  
60 2% 95%  
61 6% 93%  
62 1.2% 87%  
63 33% 85% Median
64 8% 52%  
65 35% 45%  
66 9% 10%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100% Last Result
53 0% 100%  
54 0.5% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.5%  
56 4% 99.4%  
57 2% 96%  
58 9% 94%  
59 23% 85%  
60 10% 62% Median
61 6% 52%  
62 35% 46%  
63 2% 11%  
64 9% 9%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 22% 99.8%  
50 2% 78%  
51 6% 76%  
52 4% 70%  
53 21% 66%  
54 7% 45% Median
55 2% 38%  
56 34% 36%  
57 0.3% 2%  
58 0.2% 1.3%  
59 0.8% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.4%  
44 2% 97%  
45 53% 95% Median
46 7% 42%  
47 15% 36% Last Result
48 4% 21%  
49 8% 17%  
50 2% 9%  
51 6% 7%  
52 1.0% 1.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.5% 99.8%  
33 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
34 2% 99.0%  
35 3% 97%  
36 7% 94%  
37 39% 87%  
38 3% 48% Median
39 32% 46%  
40 7% 14%  
41 0.3% 7%  
42 0.5% 7%  
43 5% 6%  
44 0.5% 1.3%  
45 0.8% 0.8%  
46 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 1.2% 99.9%  
31 2% 98.8%  
32 35% 97% Median
33 0.8% 62%  
34 27% 61%  
35 14% 34%  
36 9% 19%  
37 9% 10%  
38 1.1% 1.5% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.8% 100%  
28 2% 99.2% Last Result
29 2% 97%  
30 9% 95%  
31 3% 86%  
32 58% 83% Median
33 9% 24%  
34 2% 15%  
35 11% 14%  
36 0.7% 3%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.9% 0.9%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations