Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 12–13 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.6% 19.7–21.6% 19.4–21.9% 19.2–22.1% 18.7–22.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.9% 15.1–16.8% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.7%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Volt Europa 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Bij1 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 31–33 31–33 31–33 30–35
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 24 23–25 23–25 23–25 23–27
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 19 18–19 18–19 17–19 17–21
Democraten 66 19 16 16–18 16–20 16–20 16–20
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 11 10–12 9–12 9–12 8–12
GroenLinks 14 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
ChristenUnie 5 5 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Forum voor Democratie 2 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Volt Europa 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bij1 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Code Oranje 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 1.1% 99.5%  
31 38% 98%  
32 44% 60% Median
33 15% 16% Last Result
34 0.6% 1.3%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 16% 99.9%  
24 73% 84% Median
25 9% 10%  
26 0.5% 1.4%  
27 0.4% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.5%  
29 0% 0.4%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 3% 99.8%  
18 8% 97%  
19 87% 89% Last Result, Median
20 1.0% 2%  
21 0.9% 1.0%  
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 55% 99.8% Median
17 0.9% 45%  
18 37% 44%  
19 1.1% 7% Last Result
20 6% 6%  
21 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100% Last Result
10 54% 99.2% Median
11 8% 46%  
12 37% 38%  
13 0.8% 0.8%  
14 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.9% 100%  
9 8% 99.1%  
10 36% 91%  
11 39% 55% Median
12 16% 16%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100%  
7 38% 99.1%  
8 60% 61% Median
9 0.4% 0.8%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 82% 100% Last Result, Median
6 1.3% 18%  
7 17% 17%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 60% 100% Last Result, Median
6 3% 40%  
7 35% 36%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 36% 99.9%  
6 22% 64% Median
7 41% 42%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 58% 100% Median
3 3% 42% Last Result
4 39% 39%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 43% 100%  
3 22% 57% Median
4 34% 34%  
5 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 77% 98% Median
4 22% 22%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 36% 100%  
2 63% 64% Median
3 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 77% 77% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0% 0%  

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 85 100% 82–85 82–86 82–86 81–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 83 100% 81–86 81–86 81–86 81–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 80 100% 80–83 80–83 79–83 78–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 81 100% 79–82 79–82 79–82 78–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 75 3% 74–75 74–75 73–76 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 73 0.6% 72–75 72–75 72–75 70–76
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 80 71 0% 69–72 69–72 69–72 67–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 68 0% 67–68 67–70 66–70 65–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 60 0% 58–63 58–63 58–63 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 59 0% 58–61 58–63 58–63 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 61–62 61–62 60–62 58–64
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 58–61 58–62 58–62 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 57–62 57–62 57–62 57–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 56–59 56–59 56–59 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 55–58 55–58 55–58 55–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 51 0% 50–52 50–52 48–52 48–53
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 45–49 45–49 45–49 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 43 0% 42–43 42–43 42–43 40–47
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 35 0% 35–37 35–38 35–38 33–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 36 0% 34–36 34–36 34–36 32–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 29–31 29–31 28–31 27–32

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.6% 99.9%  
82 39% 99.3% Median
83 2% 61%  
84 0.5% 59%  
85 51% 58% Last Result
86 7% 8%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 36% 100%  
82 0.9% 64%  
83 21% 64% Median
84 2% 42%  
85 1.2% 40%  
86 38% 39%  
87 0.9% 1.0%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.3% 100%  
78 1.3% 99.7%  
79 1.0% 98%  
80 74% 97% Median
81 0.2% 23%  
82 2% 23%  
83 21% 21%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 100%  
78 1.3% 99.9%  
79 35% 98.6%  
80 1.4% 63%  
81 21% 62% Median
82 39% 41%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.1% 1.0%  
85 0.9% 0.9%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 1.3% 100%  
72 0.9% 98.7% Last Result
73 0.5% 98%  
74 35% 97%  
75 60% 62% Median
76 0.7% 3% Majority
77 1.1% 2%  
78 0.8% 1.1%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.6% 100%  
71 2% 99.4%  
72 39% 98% Median
73 35% 59%  
74 1.1% 23%  
75 22% 22%  
76 0.2% 0.6% Last Result, Majority
77 0.3% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.3% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 1.3% 99.4%  
69 39% 98% Median
70 0.9% 59%  
71 43% 58%  
72 15% 16%  
73 0.5% 0.6%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.2%  
67 39% 97% Median
68 51% 57%  
69 0.3% 7%  
70 6% 6%  
71 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 41% 99.7%  
59 4% 59%  
60 15% 55% Median
61 1.4% 40% Last Result
62 0.6% 39%  
63 38% 38%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.7%  
58 40% 99.6% Median
59 15% 60%  
60 1.5% 45%  
61 37% 43% Last Result
62 0.3% 7%  
63 6% 6%  
64 0% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.4% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.6%  
59 1.1% 99.2%  
60 2% 98%  
61 44% 96% Last Result, Median
62 51% 53%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 38% 99.5% Median
59 2% 61%  
60 16% 59%  
61 34% 43%  
62 8% 8%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 35% 99.7% Last Result
58 8% 65%  
59 2% 57% Median
60 16% 54%  
61 0.4% 39%  
62 38% 38%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.7% 99.6%  
56 43% 98.9%  
57 2% 56%  
58 15% 54% Last Result, Median
59 39% 39%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.3% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
55 38% 99.5%  
56 6% 62%  
57 1.5% 55% Median
58 53% 54%  
59 0.4% 0.7%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 3% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 97%  
50 41% 96%  
51 39% 55% Median
52 16% 17% Last Result
53 0.6% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.8%  
45 53% 99.1% Median
46 1.0% 46%  
47 2% 45% Last Result
48 2% 42%  
49 40% 41%  
50 0.6% 0.7%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.3% 100%  
40 0.8% 99.7%  
41 0.3% 98.9%  
42 40% 98.7% Last Result, Median
43 56% 58%  
44 1.0% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.6%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.5% 100%  
34 1.2% 99.4%  
35 54% 98% Median
36 2% 44%  
37 36% 42%  
38 6% 6% Last Result
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.6% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.4% Last Result
34 45% 98.6% Median
35 2% 53%  
36 50% 52%  
37 0.7% 2%  
38 0.3% 1.3%  
39 1.0% 1.0%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 2% 99.0% Last Result
29 60% 97% Median
30 0.7% 37%  
31 35% 37%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations