Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 12–15 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.0% 20.0–22.0% 19.8–22.3% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.5% 11.7–13.3% 11.5–13.5% 11.3–13.8% 10.9–14.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.8% 11.1–12.6% 10.8–12.9% 10.7–13.1% 10.3–13.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.2% 9.5–11.0% 9.3–11.2% 9.1–11.4% 8.8–11.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.4% 6.8–8.1% 6.6–8.3% 6.5–8.4% 6.2–8.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.2% 6.6–7.8% 6.4–8.0% 6.3–8.2% 6.0–8.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.8% 6.2–7.5% 6.1–7.6% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.1%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.9% 3.5–4.4% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.2% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–3.9% 2.4–4.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.2% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–3.9% 2.4–4.2%
Volt Europa 0.0% 3.2% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–3.9% 2.4–4.2%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.4% 2.0–2.8% 2.0–2.9% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.2%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.2–2.6%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
50Plus 3.1% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6%
BoerBurgerBeweging 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.5%
Bij1 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%
Piratenpartij 0.3% 0.1% 0.1–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 31–34 30–36 30–36 30–37
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 18–22 17–22 17–22 17–22
Democraten 66 19 17 17–19 17–20 17–20 16–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–17 13–19 13–19 13–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 11 11–12 10–12 9–13
GroenLinks 14 12 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 11 9–11 8–13 8–13 8–13
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Volt Europa 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
50Plus 4 2 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
BoerBurgerBeweging 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Bij1 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Code Oranje 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Piratenpartij 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 7% 99.9%  
31 10% 93%  
32 3% 83%  
33 70% 80% Last Result, Median
34 2% 10%  
35 3% 8%  
36 3% 5%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 8% 99.9%  
18 2% 92%  
19 63% 89% Median
20 11% 26% Last Result
21 5% 16%  
22 10% 10%  
23 0% 0.3%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.9%  
17 66% 98.9% Median
18 9% 33%  
19 18% 23% Last Result
20 3% 6%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 10% 100%  
14 1.2% 90%  
15 65% 89% Median
16 10% 24%  
17 6% 14%  
18 0.1% 8%  
19 8% 8% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100% Last Result
10 2% 98%  
11 89% 96% Median
12 5% 7%  
13 1.1% 1.2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 14% 97%  
11 5% 84%  
12 70% 79% Median
13 9% 9%  
14 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 8% 100%  
9 7% 92%  
10 14% 85%  
11 63% 71% Median
12 0.7% 8%  
13 7% 7%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 13% 99.5% Last Result
6 85% 86% Median
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 9% 100%  
4 13% 91%  
5 74% 78% Last Result, Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.8% 100%  
4 17% 99.2%  
5 77% 82% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 20% 99.6%  
5 78% 80% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 87% 92% Last Result, Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 78% 97% Median
3 18% 19%  
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 71% 100% Median
2 28% 29%  
3 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 25% 96%  
2 71% 71% Median
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 78% 97% Median
2 19% 19%  
3 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 78% 79% Median
2 1.4% 1.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Piratenpartij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 83–86 79–87 79–87 78–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 82 100% 82–85 78–85 78–87 78–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 19% 74–79 71–79 71–80 70–83
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 72 10% 70–75 69–77 68–77 68–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 72 11% 71–76 69–76 69–76 67–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 71 4% 71–74 68–74 67–76 67–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 67 0% 67–71 63–71 63–72 63–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 65 0% 65–68 62–69 62–71 62–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 60–63 60–65 60–67 58–67
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 60–65 60–67 58–67 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 59 0% 58–61 55–62 54–63 54–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 58 0% 56–59 53–59 52–60 52–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 56 0% 55–57 52–58 51–59 51–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 55 0% 53–56 50–56 50–58 50–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 53 0% 52–54 49–54 49–57 49–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 48 0% 47–50 44–50 43–52 43–54
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 43–48 43–48 43–48 42–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 44 0% 42–45 41–46 41–47 41–47
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 32 0% 32–37 32–37 32–37 31–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 31–35 29–36 29–36 29–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–30

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 1.0% 100%  
79 5% 99.0%  
80 0.3% 94%  
81 2% 94%  
82 0.6% 92%  
83 64% 91% Median
84 10% 27%  
85 6% 17%  
86 2% 12%  
87 9% 9%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 5% 100%  
79 1.1% 95%  
80 1.0% 94%  
81 0.2% 93%  
82 63% 93% Median
83 2% 30%  
84 2% 28%  
85 23% 26% Last Result
86 0.2% 3%  
87 0.3% 3%  
88 1.5% 2%  
89 1.0% 1.0%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 1.1% 100%  
71 5% 98.9%  
72 0.2% 94%  
73 0.4% 94%  
74 11% 93%  
75 63% 83% Median
76 0.9% 19% Majority
77 6% 19% Last Result
78 1.3% 12%  
79 8% 11%  
80 0.8% 3%  
81 0% 2%  
82 0% 2%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 4% 100%  
69 4% 96%  
70 9% 92%  
71 3% 84%  
72 62% 81% Median
73 6% 19%  
74 0.7% 13%  
75 3% 12%  
76 0.1% 10% Majority
77 10% 10%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 1.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 98.9%  
69 5% 98.7%  
70 0.3% 94%  
71 11% 93%  
72 63% 82% Median
73 1.0% 19%  
74 4% 18% Last Result
75 4% 14%  
76 9% 11% Majority
77 0% 2%  
78 0% 2%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 5% 99.9%  
68 2% 95%  
69 0.4% 93%  
70 0.6% 93%  
71 63% 92% Median
72 2% 30%  
73 4% 28%  
74 20% 24%  
75 0.2% 5%  
76 3% 4% Last Result, Majority
77 1.0% 1.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 6% 100%  
64 0.1% 94%  
65 0.2% 94%  
66 2% 94%  
67 70% 91% Median
68 2% 21%  
69 1.0% 19%  
70 7% 18%  
71 8% 11%  
72 0.8% 3% Last Result
73 0% 2%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 6% 99.9%  
63 0.8% 94%  
64 0.5% 93%  
65 62% 93% Median
66 1.5% 30%  
67 3% 29%  
68 18% 25%  
69 3% 8%  
70 1.5% 4%  
71 3% 3% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 1.2% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 98.7%  
60 13% 98.5%  
61 64% 85% Last Result, Median
62 0.7% 21%  
63 11% 20%  
64 3% 9%  
65 2% 6%  
66 1.1% 4%  
67 3% 3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 4% 100%  
59 0.5% 96%  
60 8% 95%  
61 62% 87% Median
62 11% 25%  
63 2% 14%  
64 1.2% 12%  
65 2% 10%  
66 0.8% 9% Last Result
67 8% 8%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 5% 100%  
55 0.1% 95%  
56 2% 95%  
57 1.3% 93%  
58 3% 92%  
59 61% 89% Median
60 12% 27%  
61 10% 16% Last Result
62 2% 5%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.9% 1.0%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 5% 100%  
53 1.4% 95%  
54 0.8% 94%  
55 1.0% 93%  
56 5% 92%  
57 4% 87%  
58 71% 83% Median
59 9% 13%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.1% 2% Last Result
62 0% 2%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 5% 100%  
52 1.3% 95%  
53 1.0% 94%  
54 2% 93%  
55 3% 90%  
56 66% 88% Median
57 17% 22% Last Result
58 1.4% 5%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.1% 2%  
61 0% 2%  
62 0% 2%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 6% 99.8%  
51 0.9% 94%  
52 1.2% 93%  
53 3% 92%  
54 5% 88%  
55 71% 83% Median
56 9% 12%  
57 0.4% 3%  
58 1.0% 3% Last Result
59 2% 2%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 6% 99.9%  
50 1.1% 94%  
51 2% 93%  
52 0.8% 90%  
53 68% 89% Median
54 17% 22% Last Result
55 2% 5%  
56 0.2% 3%  
57 1.0% 3%  
58 0% 2%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 5% 100%  
44 0.1% 95%  
45 2% 95%  
46 3% 93%  
47 0.7% 91%  
48 63% 90% Median
49 13% 27%  
50 10% 14%  
51 1.2% 4%  
52 0.9% 3% Last Result
53 0% 2%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.9%  
43 70% 98% Median
44 4% 29%  
45 3% 24%  
46 9% 21%  
47 0.8% 12% Last Result
48 9% 11%  
49 0.2% 2%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 7% 99.9%  
42 10% 93% Last Result
43 0.5% 83%  
44 71% 83% Median
45 3% 11%  
46 3% 8%  
47 5% 5%  
48 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 69% 99.1% Median
33 6% 30%  
34 4% 24%  
35 8% 20%  
36 1.2% 11%  
37 8% 10%  
38 2% 2% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 10% 100%  
30 0.3% 90%  
31 3% 90%  
32 64% 87% Median
33 10% 23% Last Result
34 2% 13%  
35 3% 11%  
36 8% 8%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 2% 100%  
24 8% 98%  
25 0.8% 90%  
26 67% 90% Median
27 9% 23%  
28 3% 14% Last Result
29 3% 11%  
30 8% 8%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations