Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 12–15 March 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.3% | 21.0% | 20.0–22.0% | 19.8–22.3% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.1–23.1% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.7–13.3% | 11.5–13.5% | 11.3–13.8% | 10.9–14.2% |
| Democraten 66 | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.1–12.6% | 10.8–12.9% | 10.7–13.1% | 10.3–13.5% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 12.4% | 10.2% | 9.5–11.0% | 9.3–11.2% | 9.1–11.4% | 8.8–11.8% |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.8–8.1% | 6.6–8.3% | 6.5–8.4% | 6.2–8.8% |
| GroenLinks | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.6–7.8% | 6.4–8.0% | 6.3–8.2% | 6.0–8.5% |
| Socialistische Partij | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.2–7.5% | 6.1–7.6% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.7–8.1% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5–4.4% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.2–4.7% | 3.0–5.0% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.7–3.8% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.2% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.7–3.8% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.2% |
| Volt Europa | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.7–3.8% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.2% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.8% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.5–2.2% | 1.4–2.3% | 1.4–2.4% | 1.2–2.6% |
| DENK | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| 50Plus | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.5% |
| Bij1 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% |
| Code Oranje | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
| Piratenpartij | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.2% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.3% | 0.0–0.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 33 | 33 | 31–34 | 30–36 | 30–36 | 30–37 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 20 | 19 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| Democraten 66 | 19 | 17 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–22 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 19 | 15 | 14–17 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–19 |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 |
| GroenLinks | 14 | 12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Socialistische Partij | 14 | 11 | 9–11 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 8–13 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 2 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Volt Europa | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| DENK | 3 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| 50Plus | 4 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Bij1 | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Code Oranje | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Piratenpartij | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 10% | 93% | |
| 32 | 3% | 83% | |
| 33 | 70% | 80% | Last Result, Median |
| 34 | 2% | 10% | |
| 35 | 3% | 8% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 92% | |
| 19 | 63% | 89% | Median |
| 20 | 11% | 26% | Last Result |
| 21 | 5% | 16% | |
| 22 | 10% | 10% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 66% | 98.9% | Median |
| 18 | 9% | 33% | |
| 19 | 18% | 23% | Last Result |
| 20 | 3% | 6% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 15 | 65% | 89% | Median |
| 16 | 10% | 24% | |
| 17 | 6% | 14% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 19 | 8% | 8% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 2% | 98% | |
| 11 | 89% | 96% | Median |
| 12 | 5% | 7% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 14% | 97% | |
| 11 | 5% | 84% | |
| 12 | 70% | 79% | Median |
| 13 | 9% | 9% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 7% | 92% | |
| 10 | 14% | 85% | |
| 11 | 63% | 71% | Median |
| 12 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 13 | 7% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 13% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 6 | 85% | 86% | Median |
| 7 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 91% | |
| 5 | 74% | 78% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 17% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 77% | 82% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 20% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 78% | 80% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 87% | 92% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 78% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 19% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 28% | 29% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 25% | 96% | |
| 2 | 71% | 71% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 19% | 19% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 79% | Median |
| 2 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Code Oranje
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Piratenpartij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratenpartij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 90 | 83 | 100% | 83–86 | 79–87 | 79–87 | 78–87 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 85 | 82 | 100% | 82–85 | 78–85 | 78–87 | 78–89 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 75 | 19% | 74–79 | 71–79 | 71–80 | 70–83 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 80 | 72 | 10% | 70–75 | 69–77 | 68–77 | 68–77 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 72 | 11% | 71–76 | 69–76 | 69–76 | 67–79 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 76 | 71 | 4% | 71–74 | 68–74 | 67–76 | 67–77 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 72 | 67 | 0% | 67–71 | 63–71 | 63–72 | 63–74 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 71 | 65 | 0% | 65–68 | 62–69 | 62–71 | 62–71 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 61 | 0% | 60–63 | 60–65 | 60–67 | 58–67 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 66 | 61 | 0% | 60–65 | 60–67 | 58–67 | 58–67 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 61 | 59 | 0% | 58–61 | 55–62 | 54–63 | 54–64 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 58 | 0% | 56–59 | 53–59 | 52–60 | 52–63 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 57 | 56 | 0% | 55–57 | 52–58 | 51–59 | 51–63 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 55 | 0% | 53–56 | 50–56 | 50–58 | 50–59 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 54 | 53 | 0% | 52–54 | 49–54 | 49–57 | 49–59 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 52 | 48 | 0% | 47–50 | 44–50 | 43–52 | 43–54 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 47 | 43 | 0% | 43–48 | 43–48 | 43–48 | 42–50 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 42 | 44 | 0% | 42–45 | 41–46 | 41–47 | 41–47 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 38 | 32 | 0% | 32–37 | 32–37 | 32–37 | 31–38 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 33 | 32 | 0% | 31–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 | 29–36 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 28 | 26 | 0% | 25–29 | 24–30 | 24–30 | 23–30 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 81 | 2% | 94% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 83 | 64% | 91% | Median |
| 84 | 10% | 27% | |
| 85 | 6% | 17% | |
| 86 | 2% | 12% | |
| 87 | 9% | 9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 5% | 100% | |
| 79 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 82 | 63% | 93% | Median |
| 83 | 2% | 30% | |
| 84 | 2% | 28% | |
| 85 | 23% | 26% | Last Result |
| 86 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 88 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 89 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 74 | 11% | 93% | |
| 75 | 63% | 83% | Median |
| 76 | 0.9% | 19% | Majority |
| 77 | 6% | 19% | Last Result |
| 78 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 79 | 8% | 11% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 2% | |
| 83 | 2% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 4% | 100% | |
| 69 | 4% | 96% | |
| 70 | 9% | 92% | |
| 71 | 3% | 84% | |
| 72 | 62% | 81% | Median |
| 73 | 6% | 19% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 75 | 3% | 12% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 10% | Majority |
| 77 | 10% | 10% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 69 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 71 | 11% | 93% | |
| 72 | 63% | 82% | Median |
| 73 | 1.0% | 19% | |
| 74 | 4% | 18% | Last Result |
| 75 | 4% | 14% | |
| 76 | 9% | 11% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 2% | |
| 79 | 2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 2% | 95% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 71 | 63% | 92% | Median |
| 72 | 2% | 30% | |
| 73 | 4% | 28% | |
| 74 | 20% | 24% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 3% | 4% | Last Result, Majority |
| 77 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 6% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 66 | 2% | 94% | |
| 67 | 70% | 91% | Median |
| 68 | 2% | 21% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 19% | |
| 70 | 7% | 18% | |
| 71 | 8% | 11% | |
| 72 | 0.8% | 3% | Last Result |
| 73 | 0% | 2% | |
| 74 | 2% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 65 | 62% | 93% | Median |
| 66 | 1.5% | 30% | |
| 67 | 3% | 29% | |
| 68 | 18% | 25% | |
| 69 | 3% | 8% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 71 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 13% | 98.5% | |
| 61 | 64% | 85% | Last Result, Median |
| 62 | 0.7% | 21% | |
| 63 | 11% | 20% | |
| 64 | 3% | 9% | |
| 65 | 2% | 6% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 67 | 3% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 4% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 60 | 8% | 95% | |
| 61 | 62% | 87% | Median |
| 62 | 11% | 25% | |
| 63 | 2% | 14% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 65 | 2% | 10% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 9% | Last Result |
| 67 | 8% | 8% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 5% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 56 | 2% | 95% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 58 | 3% | 92% | |
| 59 | 61% | 89% | Median |
| 60 | 12% | 27% | |
| 61 | 10% | 16% | Last Result |
| 62 | 2% | 5% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 5% | 100% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 56 | 5% | 92% | |
| 57 | 4% | 87% | |
| 58 | 71% | 83% | Median |
| 59 | 9% | 13% | |
| 60 | 2% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 2% | |
| 63 | 2% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 5% | 100% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 54 | 2% | 93% | |
| 55 | 3% | 90% | |
| 56 | 66% | 88% | Median |
| 57 | 17% | 22% | Last Result |
| 58 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 2% | |
| 63 | 2% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 50 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 53 | 3% | 92% | |
| 54 | 5% | 88% | |
| 55 | 71% | 83% | Median |
| 56 | 9% | 12% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 3% | Last Result |
| 59 | 2% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 51 | 2% | 93% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 53 | 68% | 89% | Median |
| 54 | 17% | 22% | Last Result |
| 55 | 2% | 5% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0% | 2% | |
| 59 | 2% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 5% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 45 | 2% | 95% | |
| 46 | 3% | 93% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 48 | 63% | 90% | Median |
| 49 | 13% | 27% | |
| 50 | 10% | 14% | |
| 51 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 3% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 2% | |
| 54 | 2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 70% | 98% | Median |
| 44 | 4% | 29% | |
| 45 | 3% | 24% | |
| 46 | 9% | 21% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 12% | Last Result |
| 48 | 9% | 11% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 10% | 93% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 44 | 71% | 83% | Median |
| 45 | 3% | 11% | |
| 46 | 3% | 8% | |
| 47 | 5% | 5% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 69% | 99.1% | Median |
| 33 | 6% | 30% | |
| 34 | 4% | 24% | |
| 35 | 8% | 20% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 37 | 8% | 10% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 10% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 31 | 3% | 90% | |
| 32 | 64% | 87% | Median |
| 33 | 10% | 23% | Last Result |
| 34 | 2% | 13% | |
| 35 | 3% | 11% | |
| 36 | 8% | 8% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 8% | 98% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 26 | 67% | 90% | Median |
| 27 | 9% | 23% | |
| 28 | 3% | 14% | Last Result |
| 29 | 3% | 11% | |
| 30 | 8% | 8% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–15 March 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2812
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.12%