Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 15–16 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.2% 22.2–24.3% 21.9–24.6% 21.6–24.9% 21.1–25.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.6% 11.8–13.5% 11.6–13.7% 11.4–14.0% 11.0–14.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.6% 11.8–13.5% 11.6–13.7% 11.4–14.0% 11.0–14.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.5–12.1% 10.3–12.4% 10.1–12.6% 9.8–13.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.5–8.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.7%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.5–8.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.7%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.5–8.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.7%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–4.0% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0%
Volt Europa 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0%
BoerBurgerBeweging 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2%
50Plus 3.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%
Bij1 0.3% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 33–38 33–38 33–38 33–39
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 18–20 17–20 17–20 16–20
Democraten 66 19 20 19–20 18–20 18–20 18–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 16–19 16–19 15–19 15–19
GroenLinks 14 13 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–13
Socialistische Partij 14 12 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
ChristenUnie 5 7 7–8 6–8 5–8 4–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 2 2 2 2 1–2
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Volt Europa 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
BoerBurgerBeweging 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
50Plus 4 0 0 0 0 0
Bij1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 66% 99.9% Last Result, Median
34 13% 34%  
35 2% 21%  
36 2% 19%  
37 0.5% 17%  
38 14% 16%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.2%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100%  
17 3% 98%  
18 12% 95%  
19 4% 83%  
20 79% 80% Last Result, Median
21 0.3% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 6% 99.6%  
19 12% 94% Last Result
20 81% 82% Median
21 0.3% 1.1%  
22 0.5% 0.8%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 3% 99.9%  
16 78% 97% Median
17 2% 19%  
18 1.0% 17%  
19 16% 16% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100%  
10 13% 98%  
11 3% 84%  
12 15% 81%  
13 66% 66% Median
14 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 25% 99.8%  
11 5% 75%  
12 67% 70% Median
13 3% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
10 12% 99.6%  
11 7% 88%  
12 67% 81% Median
13 14% 14%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 4% 99.5% Last Result
6 3% 95%  
7 79% 92% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 81% 99.8% Last Result, Median
6 14% 18%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.3% 100%  
4 77% 99.7% Median
5 22% 22%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 85% 100% Median
3 15% 15% Last Result
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 96% 98% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 17% 100%  
2 83% 83% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 89 100% 89–93 89–93 89–93 86–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 88 100% 88–93 88–93 88–93 86–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 34% 75–80 75–80 75–82 75–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 76 98.6% 76–81 76–81 76–81 74–81
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 80 82% 75–80 75–80 74–80 72–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 73 32% 73–78 73–78 73–79 73–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 69 0.4% 69–73 69–73 69–75 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 69 0.2% 69–73 69–73 69–74 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 65 0% 65–67 65–68 65–69 64–69
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 68 0% 65–69 63–69 62–69 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 61–66 61–66 61–66 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 55 0% 55–61 55–61 55–63 55–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 55 0% 55–61 55–61 55–63 55–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 53 0% 53–58 53–59 53–60 53–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 53 0% 53–58 53–59 53–60 53–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 49 0% 49–54 49–55 49–55 49–56
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 48 0% 45–52 45–52 45–52 44–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 45 0% 45–48 45–49 45–50 45–50
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 36 0% 35–39 35–39 34–39 33–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 35 0% 34–39 33–39 32–39 32–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 26–32 26–32 26–32 26–32

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 1.0% 100%  
87 0.3% 99.0%  
88 0.4% 98.7%  
89 70% 98% Median
90 14% 28% Last Result
91 0.1% 14%  
92 0.8% 14%  
93 13% 13%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Last Result
86 1.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 98.8%  
88 66% 98.7% Median
89 3% 32%  
90 0.1% 30%  
91 14% 30%  
92 2% 16%  
93 13% 14%  
94 0.4% 0.4%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 66% 100% Median
76 0.5% 34% Majority
77 1.1% 34% Last Result
78 5% 33%  
79 12% 28%  
80 13% 17%  
81 0.3% 3%  
82 3% 3%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.2% 0.2%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.9% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.1%  
76 66% 98.6% Last Result, Median, Majority
77 0.4% 33%  
78 3% 33%  
79 0.2% 30%  
80 16% 30%  
81 13% 13%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 2% 99.9%  
73 0% 98%  
74 0.6% 98%  
75 15% 97%  
76 0.2% 82% Majority
77 0.5% 82%  
78 0.2% 82%  
79 15% 81%  
80 66% 66% Last Result, Median
81 0.5% 0.5%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 66% 100% Median
74 0.3% 34% Last Result
75 2% 34%  
76 15% 32% Majority
77 0.4% 17%  
78 13% 16%  
79 3% 3%  
80 0% 0.5%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0% 0.2%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 67% 100% Median
70 0.3% 33%  
71 0.3% 33% Last Result
72 2% 33%  
73 27% 30%  
74 0.2% 3%  
75 3% 3%  
76 0% 0.4% Majority
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 66% 99.7% Median
70 1.4% 34%  
71 4% 33%  
72 12% 28% Last Result
73 13% 16%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.5% 0.7%  
76 0% 0.2% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 68% 99.5% Median
66 0.8% 31%  
67 24% 30%  
68 3% 6%  
69 3% 3%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 2% 100%  
62 3% 98%  
63 1.2% 95%  
64 0.6% 94%  
65 11% 93%  
66 0% 82% Last Result
67 0.5% 82%  
68 67% 81% Median
69 13% 14%  
70 0.4% 0.4%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 66% 99.9% Last Result, Median
62 0.5% 34%  
63 1.3% 33%  
64 11% 32%  
65 2% 21%  
66 18% 19%  
67 0.5% 1.0%  
68 0% 0.5%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 65% 100% Median
56 0.2% 35%  
57 0.3% 34%  
58 1.0% 34%  
59 0.3% 33%  
60 14% 33%  
61 14% 19% Last Result
62 2% 5%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 65% 100% Median
56 0.2% 35%  
57 0.3% 34% Last Result
58 1.0% 34%  
59 0.3% 33%  
60 14% 33%  
61 14% 19%  
62 2% 5%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 66% 100% Median
54 0% 34%  
55 0.3% 34%  
56 1.1% 34%  
57 0.7% 33%  
58 25% 32% Last Result
59 2% 7%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0% 0.6%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 66% 100% Median
54 0% 34% Last Result
55 0.3% 34%  
56 1.1% 34%  
57 0.8% 33%  
58 25% 32%  
59 2% 7%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0% 0.6%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 66% 100% Median
50 0.2% 34%  
51 1.4% 34%  
52 0.5% 33% Last Result
53 14% 32%  
54 14% 19%  
55 5% 5%  
56 0.2% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.2%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.9%  
45 11% 98%  
46 1.4% 86%  
47 0.6% 85% Last Result
48 69% 84% Median
49 0.3% 15%  
50 0.6% 14%  
51 0.5% 14%  
52 13% 13%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0.3% 100%  
44 0% 99.7%  
45 66% 99.7% Median
46 0.9% 34%  
47 16% 33%  
48 11% 17%  
49 2% 5%  
50 3% 3%  
51 0% 0.2%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 2% 100%  
34 1.1% 98%  
35 12% 97%  
36 66% 85% Median
37 5% 19%  
38 0.3% 14% Last Result
39 14% 14%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.3% 100%  
30 0% 99.7%  
31 0.1% 99.7%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 4% 97% Last Result
34 11% 93%  
35 66% 82% Median
36 0.3% 16%  
37 0.2% 16%  
38 2% 15%  
39 13% 13%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.6%  
26 13% 99.5%  
27 0.3% 86%  
28 69% 86% Last Result, Median
29 0.6% 17%  
30 2% 16%  
31 0.5% 14%  
32 13% 13%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations