Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 14–16 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 24.0% 23.0–25.0% 22.7–25.3% 22.4–25.6% 22.0–26.1%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.8–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 9.3–10.8% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.6–11.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Volt Europa 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
50Plus 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Bij1 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
BoerBurgerBeweging 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Splinter 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 39 35–41 35–41 35–41 35–41
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 16–22 16–22 16–22 16–22
Democraten 66 19 18 15–20 15–20 15–20 15–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 14–15 13–16 13–16 13–17
Socialistische Partij 14 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–14
GroenLinks 14 10 9–10 9–10 8–10 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 5 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–4
Volt Europa 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
50Plus 4 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bij1 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
BoerBurgerBeweging 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Splinter 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100% Last Result
34 0.1% 99.7%  
35 22% 99.6%  
36 3% 78%  
37 1.4% 75%  
38 7% 73%  
39 33% 66% Median
40 12% 33%  
41 21% 21%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 35% 100%  
17 2% 65%  
18 36% 63% Median
19 4% 27%  
20 0.8% 22% Last Result
21 0.3% 21%  
22 21% 21%  
23 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 25% 100%  
16 0.4% 75%  
17 17% 74%  
18 22% 58% Median
19 14% 35% Last Result
20 21% 21%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 5% 99.7%  
14 39% 94%  
15 48% 55% Median
16 5% 7%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 26% 100%  
11 20% 74%  
12 37% 54% Median
13 7% 17%  
14 10% 10% Last Result
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 2% 100%  
11 37% 98%  
12 25% 61% Median
13 28% 36%  
14 7% 7%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 2% 99.3%  
9 30% 97%  
10 67% 68% Median
11 0.3% 0.5%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 51% 99.5% Last Result, Median
6 40% 49%  
7 9% 9%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 7% 100%  
5 42% 93% Last Result
6 32% 52% Median
7 20% 20%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 1.1% 100%  
4 42% 98.9%  
5 24% 57% Median
6 32% 33%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100%  
2 22% 98.8%  
3 56% 76% Last Result, Median
4 20% 20%  
5 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 21% 100%  
3 76% 79% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 39% 100%  
2 61% 61% Median
3 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 41% 100%  
2 58% 59% Median
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 74% 74% Median
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100% Last Result
1 72% 73% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 66% 66% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Splinter

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Splinter page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 70% 70% Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 88 100% 87–90 85–90 85–91 84–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 85 100% 85–89 83–89 83–89 82–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 79 99.3% 76–81 76–81 76–81 75–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 75 45% 75–79 74–79 74–79 72–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 76 77% 74–78 74–78 74–78 71–78
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 80 70 3% 68–74 68–74 68–76 68–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 70 0% 69–73 69–73 69–73 67–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 72 0.1% 70–72 70–72 69–73 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 67 0% 67–70 66–70 65–70 65–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 62–67 62–67 62–67 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 61 0% 57–65 57–65 57–65 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 61 0% 57–64 57–64 57–64 57–64
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 59 0% 57–62 56–62 56–62 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 54–61 54–61 54–61 54–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 59 0% 54–60 54–60 54–60 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 54 0% 50–55 50–55 50–55 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 52 0% 47–52 47–53 47–53 47–54
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 44 0% 43–47 42–47 42–47 41–48
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 30–34 30–34 30–35 30–35
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 32 0% 30–35 30–35 30–35 28–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 25–28 25–28 25–30 25–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.9% 100%  
85 5% 99.1% Last Result
86 0.4% 94%  
87 22% 94%  
88 29% 72%  
89 24% 43% Median
90 17% 20%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.5% 0.5%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.3% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.7%  
82 0.7% 99.6%  
83 5% 98.9%  
84 4% 94%  
85 46% 90%  
86 8% 44%  
87 22% 36% Median
88 2% 14%  
89 12% 13%  
90 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 0% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 13% 99.3% Majority
77 7% 86% Last Result
78 8% 79%  
79 24% 71%  
80 22% 47% Median
81 25% 25%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.6% 100%  
73 0.5% 99.4%  
74 8% 98.9%  
75 46% 91%  
76 7% 45% Last Result, Majority
77 2% 38% Median
78 20% 36%  
79 15% 16%  
80 0% 0.3%  
81 0.3% 0.3%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.6% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.4%  
73 0.7% 99.1%  
74 17% 98% Last Result
75 4% 81%  
76 47% 77% Majority
77 3% 30% Median
78 26% 27%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 20% 100%  
69 25% 80%  
70 7% 55%  
71 0.8% 48%  
72 15% 47% Median
73 0.7% 32%  
74 29% 32%  
75 0.4% 3%  
76 2% 3% Majority
77 0.5% 0.5%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 1.3% 100%  
68 0.2% 98.7%  
69 37% 98%  
70 23% 61%  
71 1.0% 38% Last Result
72 4% 37% Median
73 33% 33%  
74 0% 0.4%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.5% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.5%  
68 1.1% 99.3%  
69 2% 98%  
70 22% 96%  
71 23% 74%  
72 49% 52% Last Result, Median
73 2% 3%  
74 0.9% 1.1%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 2% 99.6%  
66 6% 97%  
67 49% 92%  
68 1.0% 43%  
69 4% 42% Median
70 37% 37%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
62 21% 98.7%  
63 5% 78%  
64 0.2% 72%  
65 15% 72%  
66 30% 57% Median
67 26% 27%  
68 0.7% 0.8%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 0% 99.7%  
57 22% 99.7%  
58 0.4% 78%  
59 1.1% 78%  
60 9% 77%  
61 19% 68% Last Result
62 3% 49%  
63 0.6% 47% Median
64 26% 46%  
65 20% 20%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 0% 99.7%  
57 22% 99.7% Last Result
58 1.0% 78%  
59 7% 77%  
60 18% 69%  
61 4% 51%  
62 1.3% 47% Median
63 26% 46%  
64 20% 20%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 6% 100%  
57 20% 94%  
58 1.0% 74%  
59 25% 73%  
60 17% 48% Median
61 5% 30%  
62 25% 25%  
63 0% 0.5%  
64 0.5% 0.5%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.3% 100%  
54 22% 99.7%  
55 0.3% 78%  
56 0.2% 77%  
57 8% 77%  
58 1.5% 69% Last Result
59 19% 68%  
60 1.0% 48% Median
61 47% 47%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.6% 100%  
54 22% 99.4% Last Result
55 0.1% 78%  
56 8% 77%  
57 0.3% 70%  
58 18% 69%  
59 3% 51% Median
60 47% 48%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.6% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.4%  
50 21% 98.8%  
51 0% 77%  
52 12% 77% Last Result
53 3% 65%  
54 39% 62% Median
55 22% 23%  
56 0.7% 0.8%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.3% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.7%  
47 22% 99.6%  
48 2% 78%  
49 7% 76%  
50 3% 69%  
51 14% 66% Median
52 46% 52%  
53 5% 6%  
54 0.8% 0.8%  
55 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.8% 100%  
42 5% 99.2%  
43 44% 94%  
44 22% 50%  
45 2% 28% Median
46 0.9% 26%  
47 24% 25% Last Result
48 1.1% 1.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 24% 100%  
31 13% 76%  
32 23% 62% Median
33 3% 40% Last Result
34 33% 36%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.7% 100%  
29 0% 99.3%  
30 29% 99.2%  
31 7% 70%  
32 21% 63%  
33 16% 41% Median
34 2% 25%  
35 22% 23%  
36 0.7% 0.7%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 37% 100%  
26 2% 63%  
27 32% 62% Median
28 26% 30% Last Result
29 0.8% 3%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations