Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 16 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.2% 20.3–22.2% 20.0–22.5% 19.8–22.7% 19.3–23.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 14.6% 13.8–15.4% 13.5–15.7% 13.3–15.9% 13.0–16.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.6% 11.8–13.4% 11.6–13.6% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.5–12.0% 10.3–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.8–12.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–5.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–5.0%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–5.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Volt Europa 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Bij1 0.3% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
BoerBurgerBeweging 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
50Plus 3.1% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%
Code Oranje 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%
Splinter 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 37 36–37 32–37 32–37 30–37
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 21 21–22 21–23 21–23 21–23
Democraten 66 19 19 19 19 19 18–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 16 16–17 15–18 15–18
Socialistische Partij 14 11 11 11–12 11–12 11–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 8 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–11
GroenLinks 14 9 9 8–9 7–10 7–10
ChristenUnie 5 6 6 6 5–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5 5–7 5–7 5–7
Forum voor Democratie 2 6 6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3 2–3 2–3
Juiste Antwoord 2021 0 3 3 3 3–4 3–4
Volt Europa 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Bij1 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
BoerBurgerBeweging 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
50Plus 4 0 0 0 0 0
Code Oranje 0 0 0 0 0 0
Splinter 0 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.4% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 98.5%  
32 4% 98%  
33 3% 95% Last Result
34 0.3% 92%  
35 0.1% 92%  
36 4% 91%  
37 87% 87% Median
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100% Last Result
21 88% 99.9% Median
22 4% 12%  
23 8% 8%  
24 0.2% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 1.4% 99.9%  
19 98% 98% Last Result, Median
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 5% 100%  
16 87% 95% Median
17 4% 8%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0% 0.1% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 90% 99.8% Median
12 9% 9%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 90% 100% Median
9 4% 10% Last Result
10 5% 6%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 5% 100%  
8 0.8% 95%  
9 91% 95% Median
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100% Last Result
6 92% 95% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 91% 100% Last Result, Median
6 0.5% 9%  
7 9% 9%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 1.3% 100%  
5 6% 98.7%  
6 92% 92% Median
7 0.1% 0.4%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 97% 97% Last Result, Median
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 97% 99.7% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 94% 100% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0% Last Result

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 95% 95% Median
2 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Code Oranje

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Code Oranje page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Splinter

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Splinter page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 87 100% 85–87 82–87 82–87 81–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 86 100% 85–86 83–86 83–86 83–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 83 100% 82–83 80–83 80–83 78–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 80 98% 79–80 77–80 77–80 75–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 78 90% 77–78 74–78 74–78 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 74 0.2% 74 72–74 72–74 71–74
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 80 69 0.1% 69 69–72 68–73 68–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 72 0% 70–72 68–72 68–72 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 64 0% 64 60–64 60–65 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 62 0% 60–62 57–62 57–62 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 62 0% 60–62 57–62 57–62 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 61 59–61 58–61 58–61
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 66 58 0% 58 58–61 56–61 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 57–59 54–59 54–59 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 59 0% 57–59 54–59 54–59 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 53 0% 51–53 49–53 49–53 48–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 45 0% 45 41–45 41–46 41–46
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 43–44 43–45 43–45 43–47
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 35 0% 35 35–36 34–37 34–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 30 30–32 30–33 30–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 24–25 24–26 24–26 24–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.3% 100%  
81 1.4% 99.6%  
82 4% 98%  
83 0.1% 94%  
84 4% 94%  
85 0.2% 90%  
86 3% 90%  
87 87% 87% Median
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 5% 99.8%  
84 0.1% 95%  
85 7% 95% Last Result
86 87% 87% Median
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 2% 100%  
79 0.1% 98%  
80 4% 98%  
81 3% 95%  
82 4% 92%  
83 87% 87% Median
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100% Last Result
75 2% 100%  
76 0.2% 98% Majority
77 4% 98%  
78 0.2% 95%  
79 7% 95%  
80 87% 87% Median
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 2% 100%  
73 0.2% 98%  
74 4% 98%  
75 4% 95%  
76 0.1% 90% Last Result, Majority
77 3% 90%  
78 87% 87% Median
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.1% 99.7%  
71 1.3% 99.6%  
72 4% 98% Last Result
73 5% 95%  
74 90% 90% Median
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 4% 100%  
69 87% 96% Median
70 0.5% 9%  
71 0.1% 8%  
72 3% 8%  
73 3% 5%  
74 1.4% 2%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 2% 100%  
67 0.2% 98%  
68 3% 98%  
69 0.2% 95%  
70 7% 95%  
71 0.1% 87% Last Result
72 87% 87% Median
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 1.3% 99.9%  
60 6% 98.6%  
61 0.3% 92% Last Result
62 0.1% 92%  
63 0.2% 92%  
64 87% 92% Median
65 4% 4%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 1.3% 100%  
56 0.2% 98.7%  
57 4% 98.5%  
58 3% 95%  
59 0.3% 92%  
60 4% 92%  
61 0.1% 87% Last Result
62 87% 87% Median
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 1.3% 100%  
56 0.2% 98.7%  
57 4% 98.5% Last Result
58 3% 95%  
59 0.3% 92%  
60 4% 92%  
61 0.1% 87%  
62 87% 87% Median
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.7%  
58 3% 99.7%  
59 4% 96%  
60 0.2% 92%  
61 92% 92% Last Result, Median
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 4% 100%  
57 0.1% 96%  
58 87% 96% Median
59 0.3% 8%  
60 0.3% 8%  
61 6% 8%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 1.2% 100%  
53 0.2% 98.8%  
54 4% 98.6%  
55 0.2% 95%  
56 3% 95%  
57 4% 92%  
58 0.1% 87% Last Result
59 87% 87% Median
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 1.2% 100%  
53 0.2% 98.8%  
54 4% 98.6% Last Result
55 0.2% 95%  
56 3% 95%  
57 4% 92%  
58 0.1% 87%  
59 87% 87% Median
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.3% 100%  
47 0% 99.7%  
48 1.4% 99.7%  
49 4% 98%  
50 0.3% 95%  
51 7% 95%  
52 0.2% 87% Last Result
53 87% 87% Median
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 8% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 92% Last Result
43 0.1% 92%  
44 0.3% 92%  
45 87% 92% Median
46 4% 4%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 87% 99.9% Median
44 4% 13%  
45 7% 9%  
46 0.3% 2%  
47 1.3% 2% Last Result
48 0% 0.3%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 4% 100%  
35 87% 96% Median
36 5% 8%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 91% 100% Median
31 0.3% 9%  
32 4% 8%  
33 3% 5% Last Result
34 0.2% 2%  
35 1.4% 1.5%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 87% 100% Median
25 5% 13%  
26 6% 8%  
27 0.4% 2%  
28 0.1% 2% Last Result
29 1.2% 1.4%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations