Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 21–24 October 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 17.2% | 15.8–18.8% | 15.4–19.3% | 15.0–19.7% | 14.4–20.5% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 10.3% | 9.1–11.6% | 8.8–12.0% | 8.6–12.3% | 8.0–13.0% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 7.6% | 6.7–8.8% | 6.4–9.1% | 6.2–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.2–7.8% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| GroenLinks | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.5–8.4% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 5.7% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.8% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.7% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.2–3.5% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 27 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 23–31 | 22–31 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 21 | 18–25 | 18–25 | 17–25 | 17–25 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 16 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–22 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 11 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–15 | 9–15 |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 11 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 9 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
| GroenLinks | 8 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 6–12 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 8 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 5–11 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 21% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 3% | 78% | |
| 25 | 7% | 75% | |
| 26 | 4% | 68% | |
| 27 | 43% | 65% | Median |
| 28 | 10% | 22% | |
| 29 | 8% | 12% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 18 | 20% | 96% | |
| 19 | 4% | 76% | |
| 20 | 20% | 72% | |
| 21 | 23% | 52% | Median |
| 22 | 6% | 29% | |
| 23 | 1.5% | 23% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 25 | 21% | 21% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 7% | 97% | |
| 15 | 35% | 90% | |
| 16 | 26% | 56% | Median |
| 17 | 27% | 30% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 22% | 96% | |
| 11 | 31% | 73% | Median |
| 12 | 3% | 42% | |
| 13 | 21% | 39% | |
| 14 | 8% | 18% | |
| 15 | 10% | 10% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 2% | 86% | Last Result |
| 10 | 27% | 84% | |
| 11 | 46% | 57% | Median |
| 12 | 10% | 11% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 32% | 90% | |
| 9 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 10 | 4% | 47% | |
| 11 | 4% | 43% | |
| 12 | 38% | 39% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 23% | 93% | Last Result |
| 9 | 52% | 70% | Median |
| 10 | 5% | 18% | |
| 11 | 8% | 13% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 48% | 98.6% | |
| 8 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 9 | 18% | 36% | |
| 10 | 10% | 17% | |
| 11 | 4% | 7% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 7 | 27% | 98% | |
| 8 | 31% | 72% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 40% | Last Result |
| 10 | 8% | 28% | |
| 11 | 20% | 20% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 16% | 100% | |
| 6 | 32% | 84% | |
| 7 | 41% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 11% | |
| 9 | 5% | 8% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 4 | 40% | 90% | Median |
| 5 | 32% | 49% | |
| 6 | 16% | 17% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 38% | 90% | |
| 5 | 30% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 21% | 21% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 43% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 48% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 7% | 8% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 34% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 34% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 29% | 32% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 62% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 10% | 34% | |
| 4 | 23% | 24% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 68% | 95% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 20% | 28% | |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 37% | 45% | Last Result |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 87 | 63 | 0% | 62–66 | 61–67 | 60–69 | 59–70 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 86 | 62 | 0% | 61–66 | 57–67 | 57–69 | 56–72 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie | 77 | 60 | 0% | 55–61 | 55–63 | 55–63 | 54–65 |
| Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 70 | 56 | 0% | 53–57 | 53–59 | 53–60 | 48–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 57 | 0% | 52–58 | 52–60 | 52–60 | 52–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 54 | 0% | 50–55 | 50–58 | 50–58 | 49–60 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 67 | 53 | 0% | 50–54 | 50–56 | 50–58 | 49–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 53 | 0% | 52–56 | 50–57 | 50–57 | 48–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 48 | 0% | 47–52 | 46–53 | 46–53 | 45–57 |
| Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 46 | 0% | 44–49 | 44–50 | 43–53 | 40–54 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 58 | 43 | 0% | 40–45 | 40–49 | 40–50 | 40–50 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 61 | 39 | 0% | 35–42 | 35–45 | 35–45 | 35–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie | 60 | 39 | 0% | 35–41 | 35–43 | 35–44 | 35–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 43 | 38 | 0% | 33–39 | 33–40 | 33–43 | 33–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 36 | 0% | 32–39 | 32–42 | 32–42 | 32–42 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 36 | 0% | 32–37 | 32–40 | 32–41 | 32–41 |
| Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 48 | 32 | 0% | 31–35 | 31–36 | 30–38 | 28–39 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 33 | 0% | 30–35 | 30–38 | 30–38 | 29–38 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 22 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–25 | 19–27 | 19–31 |
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 29 | 22 | 0% | 19–23 | 19–23 | 19–25 | 17–27 |
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 24 | 17 | 0% | 15–19 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 62 | 7% | 94% | |
| 63 | 44% | 87% | |
| 64 | 24% | 43% | |
| 65 | 7% | 18% | |
| 66 | 3% | 12% | Median |
| 67 | 5% | 9% | |
| 68 | 0% | 4% | |
| 69 | 3% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 2% | 100% | |
| 57 | 6% | 98% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 61 | 37% | 91% | |
| 62 | 23% | 54% | |
| 63 | 2% | 30% | |
| 64 | 12% | 28% | Median |
| 65 | 4% | 17% | |
| 66 | 5% | 13% | |
| 67 | 4% | 8% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 16% | 99.3% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 57 | 4% | 82% | |
| 58 | 8% | 78% | |
| 59 | 13% | 70% | |
| 60 | 45% | 57% | Median |
| 61 | 4% | 11% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 63 | 5% | 6% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 53 | 35% | 98% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 63% | |
| 55 | 10% | 62% | |
| 56 | 39% | 51% | Median |
| 57 | 5% | 12% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 59 | 3% | 6% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 16% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 2% | 83% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 82% | |
| 55 | 7% | 80% | |
| 56 | 10% | 74% | |
| 57 | 30% | 63% | Median |
| 58 | 26% | 33% | |
| 59 | 2% | 7% | |
| 60 | 4% | 5% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 16% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 52 | 3% | 82% | |
| 53 | 9% | 79% | |
| 54 | 28% | 71% | |
| 55 | 36% | 43% | Median |
| 56 | 2% | 7% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 58 | 4% | 5% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 24% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 9% | 75% | |
| 52 | 13% | 66% | |
| 53 | 23% | 52% | |
| 54 | 20% | 29% | Median |
| 55 | 5% | 10% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 58 | 3% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 50 | 6% | 98% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 52 | 18% | 91% | |
| 53 | 45% | 72% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 27% | |
| 55 | 15% | 26% | Median |
| 56 | 5% | 12% | |
| 57 | 6% | 7% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 8% | 98.8% | |
| 47 | 22% | 91% | |
| 48 | 38% | 69% | |
| 49 | 4% | 31% | |
| 50 | 4% | 27% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 23% | |
| 52 | 3% | 12% | |
| 53 | 8% | 9% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 44 | 15% | 96% | |
| 45 | 16% | 81% | |
| 46 | 28% | 65% | |
| 47 | 4% | 37% | |
| 48 | 22% | 33% | Median |
| 49 | 5% | 11% | |
| 50 | 2% | 7% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 23% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 42 | 2% | 77% | |
| 43 | 30% | 75% | |
| 44 | 29% | 45% | |
| 45 | 7% | 16% | Median |
| 46 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 49 | 4% | 8% | |
| 50 | 3% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 22% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 78% | |
| 37 | 6% | 78% | |
| 38 | 18% | 72% | |
| 39 | 23% | 53% | Median |
| 40 | 15% | 30% | |
| 41 | 5% | 15% | |
| 42 | 3% | 10% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 45 | 7% | 7% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 22% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 6% | 78% | |
| 37 | 16% | 72% | |
| 38 | 2% | 56% | |
| 39 | 36% | 53% | Median |
| 40 | 7% | 17% | |
| 41 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 43 | 4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 4% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 21% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 3% | 79% | |
| 35 | 6% | 76% | |
| 36 | 11% | 70% | |
| 37 | 9% | 60% | |
| 38 | 38% | 50% | Median |
| 39 | 4% | 12% | |
| 40 | 4% | 8% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 43 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 21% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 79% | |
| 34 | 2% | 77% | |
| 35 | 22% | 76% | |
| 36 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 37 | 27% | 50% | |
| 38 | 10% | 23% | |
| 39 | 5% | 13% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 42 | 7% | 8% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 21% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 79% | |
| 34 | 22% | 77% | |
| 35 | 2% | 55% | |
| 36 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 37 | 38% | 47% | |
| 38 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 40 | 4% | 8% | |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 31 | 15% | 97% | |
| 32 | 38% | 82% | |
| 33 | 9% | 44% | |
| 34 | 24% | 35% | Median |
| 35 | 5% | 11% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 21% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 78% | |
| 32 | 23% | 77% | |
| 33 | 25% | 54% | |
| 34 | 5% | 29% | Median |
| 35 | 15% | 24% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 38 | 7% | 8% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 21 | 46% | 96% | |
| 22 | 6% | 51% | |
| 23 | 12% | 45% | Median |
| 24 | 26% | 33% | |
| 25 | 4% | 8% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 19 | 10% | 98% | |
| 20 | 20% | 88% | |
| 21 | 6% | 68% | |
| 22 | 24% | 62% | |
| 23 | 34% | 38% | Median |
| 24 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 25 | 2% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 11% | 98% | |
| 16 | 22% | 87% | |
| 17 | 46% | 65% | |
| 18 | 2% | 19% | Median |
| 19 | 9% | 17% | |
| 20 | 5% | 8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 21–24 October 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1021
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.12%