Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 14–17 April 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 19.3% | 18.2–20.4% | 18.0–20.7% | 17.7–21.0% | 17.2–21.6% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 11.8% | 10.9–12.7% | 10.7–13.0% | 10.5–13.2% | 10.1–13.7% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% |
| GroenLinks | 5.2% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.1–8.6% | 6.9–8.8% | 6.7–9.0% | 6.4–9.4% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 5.6–6.9% | 5.4–7.1% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.0–7.6% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 4.6% | 4.1–5.2% | 3.9–5.4% | 3.8–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.1–5.2% | 3.9–5.4% | 3.8–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.0–5.1% | 3.8–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.5–5.8% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.7–3.4% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.0% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.0–2.4% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 31 | 29–31 | 27–31 | 27–31 | 27–33 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 17 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–23 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| GroenLinks | 8 | 13 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–12 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–11 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| DENK | 3 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 29 | 12% | 92% | |
| 30 | 7% | 79% | |
| 31 | 70% | 72% | Median |
| 32 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 65% | 96% | Median |
| 18 | 15% | 31% | |
| 19 | 2% | 15% | |
| 20 | 5% | 13% | |
| 21 | 6% | 7% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 38% | 90% | |
| 13 | 42% | 52% | Median |
| 14 | 6% | 11% | |
| 15 | 3% | 5% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 11% | 97% | |
| 12 | 31% | 86% | |
| 13 | 51% | 55% | Median |
| 14 | 5% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 30% | 99.2% | |
| 12 | 20% | 69% | Median |
| 13 | 45% | 49% | |
| 14 | 4% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 11% | 97% | |
| 9 | 37% | 85% | Median |
| 10 | 35% | 48% | |
| 11 | 5% | 13% | |
| 12 | 9% | 9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 18% | 100% | |
| 8 | 18% | 82% | |
| 9 | 36% | 65% | Median |
| 10 | 28% | 28% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 42% | 96% | |
| 8 | 42% | 54% | Median |
| 9 | 11% | 11% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 5 | 35% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 10% | 64% | |
| 7 | 38% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 13% | 16% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 14% | 100% | |
| 6 | 35% | 86% | |
| 7 | 37% | 51% | Median |
| 8 | 11% | 14% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 32% | 100% | |
| 6 | 32% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 17% | 36% | |
| 8 | 15% | 19% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 21% | 100% | |
| 3 | 14% | 79% | |
| 4 | 56% | 65% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 23% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 4 | 44% | 75% | Median |
| 5 | 31% | 31% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 35% | 96% | |
| 4 | 58% | 60% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 54% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 40% | 44% | Last Result |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 43% | 100% | |
| 1 | 56% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | |
| 1 | 82% | 90% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 86 | 49 | 0% | 48–52 | 48–53 | 45–58 | 45–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 87 | 48 | 0% | 47–52 | 47–54 | 46–57 | 46–57 |
| GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 70 | 51 | 0% | 49–54 | 48–54 | 48–56 | 47–56 |
| GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 44 | 0% | 43–47 | 41–47 | 41–50 | 41–50 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie | 77 | 44 | 0% | 42–48 | 42–49 | 42–49 | 41–50 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 40 | 0% | 38–44 | 38–45 | 38–45 | 37–47 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 | 67 | 39 | 0% | 38–41 | 38–42 | 36–44 | 36–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 36 | 0% | 35–40 | 35–41 | 34–44 | 34–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 58 | 35 | 0% | 35–39 | 35–43 | 34–43 | 33–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 37 | 0% | 34–40 | 34–41 | 34–42 | 34–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 33 | 0% | 31–37 | 31–37 | 30–40 | 30–40 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 61 | 32 | 0% | 31–35 | 30–37 | 30–37 | 29–37 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie | 60 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 30–36 | 30–37 | 28–37 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 43 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 28–34 | 28–35 | 27–35 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 27 | 0% | 27–31 | 27–33 | 27–34 | 25–34 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 27 | 0% | 26–30 | 26–33 | 26–33 | 24–34 |
| Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 48 | 28 | 0% | 27–32 | 26–32 | 26–32 | 25–32 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 24 | 0% | 22–27 | 22–29 | 22–30 | 21–31 |
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 29 | 22 | 0% | 20–24 | 20–26 | 20–26 | 20–26 |
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 24 | 18 | 0% | 18–20 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 16–22 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 15 | 0% | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–20 | 13–20 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 3% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 48 | 28% | 96% | |
| 49 | 41% | 68% | |
| 50 | 3% | 27% | Median |
| 51 | 4% | 24% | |
| 52 | 13% | 20% | |
| 53 | 3% | 6% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 3% | |
| 58 | 3% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 4% | 100% | |
| 47 | 21% | 96% | |
| 48 | 27% | 75% | |
| 49 | 6% | 48% | Median |
| 50 | 20% | 41% | |
| 51 | 2% | 22% | |
| 52 | 12% | 20% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 54 | 4% | 7% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0% | 3% | |
| 57 | 3% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 4% | 98% | |
| 49 | 35% | 94% | |
| 50 | 4% | 59% | |
| 51 | 33% | 56% | |
| 52 | 11% | 23% | Median |
| 53 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 54 | 9% | 12% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 56 | 3% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 41 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 4% | 94% | |
| 43 | 21% | 90% | |
| 44 | 49% | 69% | |
| 45 | 7% | 19% | Median |
| 46 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 47 | 9% | 12% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 49 | 0% | 3% | |
| 50 | 3% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 29% | 98% | |
| 43 | 11% | 69% | |
| 44 | 8% | 58% | |
| 45 | 35% | 50% | Median |
| 46 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 47 | 4% | 14% | |
| 48 | 5% | 11% | |
| 49 | 5% | 6% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 29% | 98.8% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 70% | |
| 40 | 43% | 70% | |
| 41 | 11% | 26% | Median |
| 42 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 43 | 4% | 14% | |
| 44 | 2% | 11% | |
| 45 | 8% | 9% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 38 | 29% | 96% | Median |
| 39 | 33% | 67% | |
| 40 | 6% | 34% | |
| 41 | 20% | 28% | |
| 42 | 5% | 8% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 44 | 3% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 4% | 100% | |
| 35 | 26% | 96% | |
| 36 | 23% | 71% | |
| 37 | 15% | 47% | Median |
| 38 | 9% | 32% | |
| 39 | 2% | 23% | |
| 40 | 15% | 21% | |
| 41 | 2% | 6% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 44 | 3% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 35 | 50% | 96% | |
| 36 | 16% | 46% | Median |
| 37 | 15% | 29% | |
| 38 | 4% | 14% | |
| 39 | 2% | 10% | |
| 40 | 2% | 8% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 43 | 6% | 6% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 29% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 71% | |
| 36 | 19% | 70% | |
| 37 | 28% | 51% | Median |
| 38 | 7% | 24% | |
| 39 | 6% | 17% | |
| 40 | 3% | 11% | |
| 41 | 4% | 8% | |
| 42 | 3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 4% | 100% | |
| 31 | 25% | 96% | |
| 32 | 3% | 71% | |
| 33 | 18% | 68% | Median |
| 34 | 22% | 50% | |
| 35 | 10% | 27% | |
| 36 | 5% | 18% | |
| 37 | 10% | 13% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 40 | 3% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 5% | 98% | |
| 31 | 31% | 93% | |
| 32 | 31% | 62% | |
| 33 | 20% | 31% | Median |
| 34 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 10% | |
| 36 | 3% | 9% | |
| 37 | 6% | 6% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 30 | 35% | 98% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 62% | |
| 32 | 50% | 62% | Median |
| 33 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 36 | 5% | 8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 25% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 18% | 75% | Median |
| 30 | 33% | 57% | |
| 31 | 13% | 24% | |
| 32 | 2% | 11% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 3% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 27 | 55% | 98.9% | |
| 28 | 13% | 44% | |
| 29 | 19% | 31% | Median |
| 30 | 2% | 12% | |
| 31 | 2% | 11% | |
| 32 | 2% | 9% | |
| 33 | 3% | 7% | |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 29% | 98.9% | |
| 27 | 38% | 70% | |
| 28 | 9% | 31% | Median |
| 29 | 12% | 23% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 32 | 3% | 9% | |
| 33 | 6% | 6% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 8% | 98% | |
| 27 | 29% | 91% | |
| 28 | 42% | 62% | Median |
| 29 | 7% | 20% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 13% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 32 | 11% | 11% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 22 | 28% | 99.1% | |
| 23 | 11% | 71% | |
| 24 | 35% | 60% | Median |
| 25 | 11% | 25% | |
| 26 | 2% | 14% | |
| 27 | 5% | 12% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 29 | 3% | 6% | |
| 30 | 3% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 26% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 73% | |
| 22 | 42% | 73% | |
| 23 | 10% | 31% | Median |
| 24 | 14% | 20% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 26 | 6% | 6% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 18 | 64% | 93% | |
| 19 | 8% | 30% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 22% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 22 | 6% | 6% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 30% | 99.0% | |
| 15 | 21% | 69% | |
| 16 | 9% | 48% | Median |
| 17 | 27% | 39% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 19 | 3% | 11% | |
| 20 | 8% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: I&O Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–17 April 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 2197
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.78%