Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 23–25 June 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 18.1% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.2–20.2% | 15.9–20.6% | 15.2–21.4% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 14.5% | 13.2–16.0% | 12.8–16.4% | 12.5–16.8% | 11.8–17.5% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.2–11.2% | 7.9–11.6% | 7.4–12.2% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 6.8–8.9% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.2–9.5% | 5.8–10.1% |
| GroenLinks | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.4% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.5% |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.0–7.8% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.1% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–5.0% | 2.3–5.4% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.7% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.7% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 28 | 27–28 | 25–30 | 24–30 | 24–31 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 26 | 20–26 | 19–26 | 19–26 | 18–26 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 13 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 12 | 11–12 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–16 |
| GroenLinks | 8 | 13 | 11–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 7–13 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 9 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 7 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–12 | 7–12 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–10 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 |
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 3% | 96% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 27 | 5% | 92% | |
| 28 | 80% | 87% | Median |
| 29 | 2% | 7% | |
| 30 | 4% | 5% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 20 | 5% | 95% | |
| 21 | 10% | 90% | |
| 22 | 3% | 80% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 76% | |
| 24 | 2% | 76% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 74% | |
| 26 | 73% | 73% | Median |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 78% | 98% | Median |
| 14 | 4% | 20% | |
| 15 | 4% | 16% | |
| 16 | 2% | 11% | |
| 17 | 6% | 9% | Last Result |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 97% | |
| 11 | 6% | 95% | |
| 12 | 79% | 89% | Median |
| 13 | 6% | 9% | |
| 14 | 2% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 9 | 3% | 98% | |
| 10 | 2% | 94% | |
| 11 | 11% | 93% | |
| 12 | 7% | 81% | |
| 13 | 74% | 74% | Median |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 9 | 77% | 97% | Median |
| 10 | 7% | 21% | |
| 11 | 5% | 14% | |
| 12 | 4% | 8% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 75% | 99.6% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 24% | |
| 9 | 12% | 18% | Last Result |
| 10 | 2% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 84% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 12% | |
| 9 | 3% | 6% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 97% | |
| 7 | 81% | 90% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 9% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 95% | |
| 6 | 6% | 88% | |
| 7 | 78% | 82% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 81% | 97% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 11% | 16% | |
| 7 | 3% | 5% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 76% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 11% | 24% | |
| 5 | 3% | 13% | |
| 6 | 3% | 10% | |
| 7 | 6% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 80% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 9% | 13% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 99.4% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 19% | |
| 4 | 8% | 12% | |
| 5 | 2% | 3% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 14% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 82% | 85% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 11% | 96% | Last Result |
| 2 | 82% | 85% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | |
| 1 | 81% | 84% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 81 | 88% | 74–81 | 73–81 | 72–81 | 71–83 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid | 52 | 74 | 0.3% | 67–74 | 67–74 | 65–74 | 64–74 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid | 75 | 60 | 0% | 59–60 | 56–62 | 54–63 | 53–63 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 61 | 0% | 55–61 | 53–61 | 50–61 | 50–63 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 53 | 0% | 53–56 | 53–58 | 53–59 | 51–65 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 52 | 0% | 52–54 | 48–56 | 48–58 | 45–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 55 | 0% | 54–56 | 52–57 | 51–57 | 49–60 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 50 | 0% | 50–54 | 50–55 | 50–57 | 48–63 |
| Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 70 | 51 | 0% | 51–52 | 50–54 | 48–56 | 47–56 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 48 | 0% | 48–50 | 48–52 | 47–53 | 45–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 47 | 0% | 47–49 | 43–50 | 42–51 | 40–52 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid | 51 | 48 | 0% | 46–48 | 45–49 | 44–50 | 42–51 |
| Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 44 | 0% | 44–46 | 43–47 | 41–48 | 39–49 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid | 18 | 46 | 0% | 41–46 | 38–46 | 37–46 | 36–46 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 41 | 0% | 41–42 | 38–43 | 38–44 | 36–48 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 40 | 0% | 40–42 | 37–43 | 37–44 | 35–47 |
| Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 39 | 0% | 39–40 | 38–41 | 36–43 | 34–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 38 | 0% | 38–39 | 36–40 | 35–41 | 34–46 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 37 | 0% | 37–39 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 34–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 35 | 0% | 34–36 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 31–40 |
| GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 32 | 0% | 32–34 | 31–35 | 30–36 | 27–37 |
| GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 27 | 0% | 27–28 | 26–30 | 24–31 | 23–31 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 19 | 0% | 19–20 | 18–21 | 16–22 | 14–23 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 73 | 3% | 97% | |
| 74 | 6% | 94% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 76 | 2% | 88% | Majority |
| 77 | 5% | 86% | |
| 78 | 6% | 81% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 75% | |
| 80 | 1.2% | 74% | |
| 81 | 72% | 73% | Median |
| 82 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 67 | 7% | 95% | |
| 68 | 2% | 88% | |
| 69 | 8% | 86% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 78% | |
| 71 | 4% | 77% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 73% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 73% | |
| 74 | 72% | 73% | Median |
| 75 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 56 | 2% | 96% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 59 | 7% | 92% | |
| 60 | 78% | 85% | Median |
| 61 | 2% | 7% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 63 | 4% | 5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – BoerBurgerBeweging – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 52 | 2% | 97% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 54 | 3% | 94% | |
| 55 | 2% | 91% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 57 | 7% | 89% | |
| 58 | 5% | 81% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 76% | |
| 60 | 2% | 76% | |
| 61 | 72% | 74% | Median |
| 62 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 53 | 74% | 98% | Median |
| 54 | 6% | 24% | |
| 55 | 3% | 18% | |
| 56 | 8% | 15% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 48 | 5% | 98% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 50 | 1.5% | 93% | |
| 51 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 52 | 74% | 91% | Median |
| 53 | 5% | 16% | |
| 54 | 2% | 11% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 8% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 58 | 4% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 52 | 4% | 97% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 54 | 3% | 92% | |
| 55 | 77% | 90% | Median |
| 56 | 5% | 12% | |
| 57 | 5% | 7% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 73% | 98% | Median |
| 51 | 1.1% | 25% | |
| 52 | 8% | 24% | |
| 53 | 6% | 16% | |
| 54 | 5% | 10% | |
| 55 | 2% | 6% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 50 | 3% | 97% | |
| 51 | 73% | 94% | Median |
| 52 | 12% | 21% | |
| 53 | 3% | 9% | |
| 54 | 2% | 5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 56 | 3% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 48 | 76% | 97% | Median |
| 49 | 7% | 21% | |
| 50 | 4% | 14% | |
| 51 | 2% | 10% | |
| 52 | 6% | 8% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 43 | 3% | 97% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 45 | 2% | 93% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 47 | 79% | 91% | Median |
| 48 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 49 | 2% | 11% | |
| 50 | 6% | 9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98% | |
| 45 | 3% | 96% | |
| 46 | 3% | 92% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 48 | 82% | 88% | Median |
| 49 | 2% | 6% | |
| 50 | 3% | 4% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 43 | 2% | 96% | |
| 44 | 74% | 94% | Median |
| 45 | 6% | 20% | |
| 46 | 8% | 13% | |
| 47 | 2% | 6% | |
| 48 | 3% | 4% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 38 | 2% | 97% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 40 | 2% | 94% | |
| 41 | 9% | 92% | |
| 42 | 5% | 83% | |
| 43 | 5% | 78% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 74% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 73% | |
| 46 | 72% | 73% | Median |
| 47 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 2% | 95% | |
| 40 | 2% | 93% | |
| 41 | 77% | 91% | Median |
| 42 | 5% | 14% | |
| 43 | 5% | 9% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 2% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 39 | 2% | 94% | |
| 40 | 76% | 92% | Median |
| 41 | 7% | 17% | |
| 42 | 2% | 10% | |
| 43 | 4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 38 | 3% | 95% | |
| 39 | 78% | 92% | Median |
| 40 | 8% | 15% | |
| 41 | 3% | 7% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 43 | 3% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 36 | 4% | 97% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 38 | 75% | 93% | Median |
| 39 | 8% | 18% | |
| 40 | 6% | 10% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 37 | 73% | 93% | Median |
| 38 | 7% | 20% | |
| 39 | 5% | 13% | |
| 40 | 4% | 8% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 96% | |
| 33 | 3% | 94% | |
| 34 | 2% | 92% | |
| 35 | 75% | 89% | Median |
| 36 | 7% | 14% | |
| 37 | 4% | 7% | |
| 38 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 31 | 2% | 97% | |
| 32 | 77% | 95% | Median |
| 33 | 4% | 18% | |
| 34 | 7% | 14% | |
| 35 | 3% | 7% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 26 | 4% | 96% | |
| 27 | 80% | 92% | Median |
| 28 | 5% | 12% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 7% | |
| 31 | 4% | 5% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 18 | 2% | 96% | |
| 19 | 80% | 95% | Median |
| 20 | 8% | 15% | |
| 21 | 3% | 7% | |
| 22 | 2% | 4% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 23–25 June 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1022
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.93%