Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 14–15 July 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 16.5% | 15.7–17.4% | 15.4–17.7% | 15.2–17.9% | 14.8–18.4% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 16.5% | 15.7–17.4% | 15.4–17.7% | 15.2–17.9% | 14.8–18.4% |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 10.9% | 16.5% | 15.7–17.4% | 15.4–17.7% | 15.2–17.9% | 14.8–18.4% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 8.9–11.1% | 8.6–11.4% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.6% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 4.9–7.2% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 4.6% | 4.2–5.2% | 4.0–5.3% | 3.9–5.5% | 3.7–5.7% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.1–5.0% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.1–5.0% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.5–4.2% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.3–3.0% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| Belang van Nederland | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 23 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 23–27 | 22–29 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 29 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 23–29 | 23–29 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 17 | 27 | 24–27 | 24–27 | 23–27 | 23–28 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 15 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 6 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| DENK | 3 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Belang van Nederland | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 23 | 61% | 99.2% | Median |
| 24 | 5% | 38% | |
| 25 | 6% | 34% | |
| 26 | 4% | 28% | |
| 27 | 23% | 24% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 21% | 97% | |
| 25 | 6% | 75% | |
| 26 | 5% | 69% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 63% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 62% | |
| 29 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 8% | 97% | |
| 25 | 3% | 89% | |
| 26 | 23% | 86% | |
| 27 | 62% | 63% | Median |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 97% | |
| 15 | 69% | 93% | Median |
| 16 | 22% | 24% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 2% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 7% | 97% | |
| 10 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 11 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 10% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 26% | 90% | |
| 9 | 63% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 82% | 93% | Median |
| 9 | 9% | 11% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 65% | 98.9% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 34% | |
| 8 | 26% | 30% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 85% | 99.6% | Median |
| 6 | 9% | 15% | |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 6 | 89% | 93% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 24% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 69% | 75% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 6% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 72% | 99.4% | Median |
| 4 | 25% | 28% | |
| 5 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 94% | 99.9% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 6% | Last Result |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% | 100% | |
| 2 | 73% | 77% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 16% | 16% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Belang van Nederland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 67 | 85 | 100% | 82–85 | 82–85 | 80–85 | 80–90 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 52 | 79 | 86% | 74–79 | 73–79 | 73–79 | 73–85 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 | 75 | 60 | 0% | 59–63 | 59–63 | 57–63 | 57–65 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 56 | 0% | 56–61 | 56–61 | 56–61 | 54–61 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 50 | 58 | 0% | 58–59 | 57–59 | 56–59 | 55–63 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 51 | 0% | 51–57 | 51–57 | 51–59 | 51–59 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 70 | 55 | 0% | 52–56 | 51–56 | 51–56 | 50–56 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 49 | 0% | 49–55 | 49–55 | 49–56 | 49–56 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid | 18 | 56 | 0% | 49–56 | 49–56 | 48–56 | 47–56 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 51 | 50 | 0% | 50–53 | 49–53 | 48–53 | 47–56 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 44 | 0% | 44–51 | 44–51 | 44–51 | 44–51 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 42 | 0% | 42–49 | 42–49 | 42–49 | 42–49 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 61 | 46 | 0% | 45–48 | 44–48 | 43–48 | 42–48 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 39 | 0% | 39–45 | 39–45 | 39–45 | 39–45 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 56 | 43 | 0% | 42–44 | 41–44 | 40–44 | 38–44 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 36 | 0% | 36–41 | 36–42 | 36–44 | 36–46 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 36 | 0% | 36–41 | 36–42 | 36–43 | 36–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 34 | 0% | 34–39 | 34–40 | 34–41 | 34–43 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 34 | 0% | 34–39 | 34–39 | 34–40 | 34–42 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 37 | 36 | 0% | 35–38 | 35–38 | 34–38 | 33–38 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 29 | 0% | 29–35 | 29–35 | 29–35 | 29–35 |
| GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 32 | 33 | 0% | 32–34 | 32–34 | 30–34 | 30–35 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 16 | 0% | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 |
BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 100% | |
| 78 | 0% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 80 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 81 | 2% | 97% | |
| 82 | 8% | 95% | |
| 83 | 2% | 87% | |
| 84 | 2% | 86% | |
| 85 | 82% | 84% | Median |
| 86 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 90 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 7% | 94% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 86% | Majority |
| 77 | 21% | 86% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 65% | |
| 79 | 63% | 65% | Median |
| 80 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 97% | |
| 59 | 7% | 95% | |
| 60 | 64% | 88% | Median |
| 61 | 0.7% | 24% | |
| 62 | 3% | 23% | |
| 63 | 20% | 20% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 62% | 98% | Median |
| 57 | 8% | 36% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 28% | |
| 59 | 6% | 27% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 21% | |
| 61 | 20% | 20% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
BoerBurgerBeweging – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 67% | 93% | Median |
| 59 | 24% | 26% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 51 | 60% | 99.8% | Median |
| 52 | 2% | 39% | |
| 53 | 2% | 37% | |
| 54 | 3% | 35% | |
| 55 | 7% | 33% | |
| 56 | 2% | 26% | |
| 57 | 21% | 24% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 5% | 98% | |
| 52 | 5% | 93% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 55 | 65% | 87% | Median |
| 56 | 21% | 21% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 61% | 99.8% | Median |
| 50 | 2% | 39% | |
| 51 | 2% | 37% | |
| 52 | 4% | 35% | |
| 53 | 5% | 31% | |
| 54 | 3% | 26% | |
| 55 | 20% | 23% | |
| 56 | 3% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
BoerBurgerBeweging – GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 9% | 96% | |
| 50 | 20% | 87% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 67% | |
| 52 | 3% | 66% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 63% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 62% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 62% | |
| 56 | 61% | 62% | Median |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 49 | 7% | 97% | |
| 50 | 64% | 90% | Median |
| 51 | 2% | 26% | Last Result |
| 52 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 53 | 22% | 24% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 61% | 99.8% | Median |
| 45 | 0.6% | 39% | |
| 46 | 6% | 39% | |
| 47 | 1.4% | 33% | |
| 48 | 6% | 32% | |
| 49 | 6% | 26% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 20% | |
| 51 | 20% | 20% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 42 | 61% | 99.8% | Median |
| 43 | 0.7% | 39% | |
| 44 | 4% | 38% | |
| 45 | 3% | 34% | |
| 46 | 6% | 31% | |
| 47 | 2% | 25% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 23% | |
| 49 | 21% | 21% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 43 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 44 | 4% | 96% | |
| 45 | 5% | 92% | |
| 46 | 61% | 87% | Median |
| 47 | 5% | 26% | |
| 48 | 21% | 21% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 61% | 99.6% | Median |
| 40 | 2% | 38% | |
| 41 | 3% | 36% | |
| 42 | 5% | 33% | |
| 43 | 6% | 29% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 23% | |
| 45 | 21% | 22% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98% | |
| 41 | 4% | 96% | |
| 42 | 5% | 91% | |
| 43 | 65% | 86% | Median |
| 44 | 21% | 21% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 60% | 100% | Median |
| 37 | 0.3% | 40% | |
| 38 | 4% | 39% | |
| 39 | 2% | 36% | |
| 40 | 2% | 34% | |
| 41 | 24% | 32% | |
| 42 | 3% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 5% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0% | 2% | |
| 46 | 2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 60% | 99.9% | Median |
| 37 | 4% | 40% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 36% | |
| 39 | 2% | 36% | |
| 40 | 6% | 33% | |
| 41 | 22% | 27% | |
| 42 | 2% | 5% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 60% | 99.9% | Median |
| 35 | 0.3% | 40% | |
| 36 | 6% | 39% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 34% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 32% | |
| 39 | 24% | 31% | |
| 40 | 3% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 60% | 99.8% | Median |
| 35 | 4% | 39% | |
| 36 | 2% | 36% | |
| 37 | 2% | 33% | |
| 38 | 5% | 32% | |
| 39 | 22% | 27% | |
| 40 | 2% | 5% | |
| 41 | 0% | 2% | |
| 42 | 2% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 35 | 8% | 96% | |
| 36 | 62% | 89% | Median |
| 37 | 4% | 27% | Last Result |
| 38 | 22% | 23% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 60% | 99.9% | Median |
| 30 | 2% | 40% | |
| 31 | 2% | 37% | |
| 32 | 3% | 35% | |
| 33 | 7% | 32% | |
| 34 | 2% | 25% | |
| 35 | 22% | 23% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
GroenLinks–Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 32 | 7% | 95% | Last Result |
| 33 | 66% | 88% | Median |
| 34 | 21% | 22% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 98% | |
| 16 | 63% | 94% | Median |
| 17 | 3% | 31% | |
| 18 | 25% | 29% | |
| 19 | 4% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–15 July 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.48%